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In March 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic became members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), marking a milestone in their reintegration into the European mainstream. This enlargement of the alliance occurred with the advice and consent of the U.S. Senate in April 1998, following an extensive debate on the three Central European countries' qualifications for membership. Proponents of enlarging NATO argued that the three countries would enhance the security of the alliance and would contribute to its ability to carry out its missions. Opponents feared that the enlargement would entail steep costs for the United States and its allies, would make the alliance less secure by increasing its commitments, and would antagonize Russia.

This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paper examines the contribution that the three Central European allies are making to the common defense of the alliance. The paper looks at how they have progressed militarily since the end of the Cold War--namely, the state of their defense budgets and their military reforms. It also details NATO's costs for incorporating the new members. The paper relies on (1) interviews with defense experts who have worked with the new allies or have examined their armed forces, (2) journal articles, (3) information provided by the three countries themselves, and (4) conversations with and reports from officials at the Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. Mission to NATO. While classified materials from DoD and NATO were consulted, all information in this paper comes from open sources.

The paper was requested by the Chairman and Ranking Democratic Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In keeping with CBO's mandate to provide objective and nonpartisan analysis, it makes no recommendations.

The paper was prepared by John J. Lis and Zachary Selden under the supervision of Christopher Jehn and R. William Thomas. Delia Welsh compiled the appendix and drafted Chapter II, and Carolyn Leddy contributed invaluable research and drafted sections of all three chapters. The authors wish to thank Jeffrey Simon, Thomas S. Szayna, Daniel N. Nelson, Andrew Michta, Marybeth Ulrich, Paul Gallis, Julie Kim, and Carl Ek for their insights and assistance. All responsibility for this work, however, rests with the authors.

John Skeen edited the paper, and Christine Bogusz proofread it. Judith Cromwell prepared it for publication, and Annette Kalicki prepared the electronic versions for CBO's Web site.
 

Dan L. Crippen
Director
October 2000
 
 

SUMMARY

I - FROM THE WARSAW PACT TO NATO

• Framing the Current Enlargement of NATO
• Overcoming the Legacy of the Warsaw Pact

II - DEFENSE BUDGETS

• Historical Trends and Projected Spending
• New Allies' Contributions to Recent NATO Missions

III - RESTRUCTURING AND MODERNIZATION

• Military Restructuring and Modernization in Poland
• Military Restructuring and Modernization in Hungary
• Military Restructuring and Modernization in the Czech Republic
• NATO-Funded Common Capabilities
• Conclusions

APPENDIX - Information About Data Sources
 

TABLES
1.	Projected Defense Spending in NATO as a Percentage of GDP, 2000-2003
2.	Historical Defense Spending as a Percentage of GDP, 1990-1999
3.	Central European Allies' Historical and Projected Defense Spending, 1997-2003
4.	Armed Forces of Central European Allies and Comparable Allies, 1989-1999
5.	Allied Contributions to NATO's Common Budgets in 1999
FIGURES
S-1.	European Allies' Defense Spending as a Percentage of GDP, 1993-2000
1.	Central European Allies' Historical and Projected Defense Spending, 1997-2003
2.	Number of Personnel from Select Countries Assigned to NATO's Kosovo Force Mission in 1999
BOX
1.	Conscription in Europe

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