On July 18, 2000, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2001-2010--An Update, which presents CBO's latest projections of federal revenues and outlays over that period. In preparing the economic forecast that underlies those projections, CBO considers whether the movements in the budget balance caused by legislation and other factors are restraining or stimulating short-term economic growth. The fiscal policy measure CBO uses for that purpose is the annual change in an adjusted version of the budget balance--specifically, the change in the standardized-budget surplus (or deficit). This supplement to the update provides projections of the standardized budget through fiscal year 2010 as well as updated historical calculations (see Tables 1 through 6 later in this document).
As in the July update, these standardized-budget projections are calculated under three variants of CBO's baseline, each of which reflects a different assumption about discretionary spending. The "inflated" variation assumes that discretionary spending grows at the rate of inflation after 2000. The "freeze" variation pegs discretionary budget authority to the level enacted for the current year plus amounts already enacted for 2001. The "capped" variation assumes that discretionary spending equals CBO's estimates of the statutory caps through 2002 and grows at the rate of inflation thereafter.
In calculating the standardized budget, CBO makes several types of adjustments. First, it adjusts revenues and outlays to remove the effects of the business cycle. During economic downturns, revenues automatically fall as income declines, and outlays automatically increase as unemployment rises. Because of those cyclical effects, changes in the actual, or unadjusted, budget surplus can give misleading signals about the stance of fiscal policy. Other adjustments by CBO remove the budgetary effects of factors that have no impact on short-term growth, such as sales of assets and changes by a day or two in the timing of receipts or outlays that effectively shift them from one fiscal year to another.
Beginning this year, CBO's calculations of the standardized budget incorporate several new adjustments.(1) For the 1996-2000 period, the most important ones are the following:
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Table 1. The Standardized-Budget Surplus Under Alternative Versions of CBO's Baseline, Fiscal Years 1996-2010 |
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Actual
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Projected
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1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||
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In Billions of Dollars | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated Baseline | -82 | -50 | -11 | 28 | 106 | 142 | 183 | 235 | 273 | 327 | 379 | 430 | 480 | 533 | 580 | |||
Freeze Baseline | -82 | -50 | -11 | 28 | 106 | 155 | 214 | 286 | 349 | 425 | 499 | 574 | 650 | 730 | 806 | |||
Capped Baseline | -82 | -50 | -11 | 28 | 106 | 203 | 275 | 333 | 377 | 441 | 497 | 552 | 612 | 674 | 729 | |||
As a Percentage of Potential GDP | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated Baseline | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | |||
Freeze Baseline | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | |||
Capped Baseline | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | |||
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SOURCES: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. | ||||||||||||||||||
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Table 2. Details of the Standardized-Budget Surplus Under Alternative Versions of CBO's Baseline, Fiscal Years 1996-2010 (In billions of dollars) |
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Actual
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Projected
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1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||
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Revenues | ||||||||||||||||||
Budget | 1,453 | 1,579 | 1,722 | 1,827 | 2,008 | 2,109 | 2,202 | 2,290 | 2,380 | 2,486 | 2,594 | 2,706 | 2,826 | 2,960 | 3,102 | |||
Cyclical adjustments | 26 | 6 | -15 | -37 | -83 | -93 | -81 | -64 | -47 | -34 | -24 | -14 | -5 | * | * | |||
Other adjustments | -51 | -70 | -87 | -96 | -102 | -91 | -91 | -89 | -87 | -87 | -87 | -88 | -89 | -91 | -94 | |||
Standardized | 1,428 | 1,516 | 1,620 | 1,695 | 1,822 | 1,925 | 2,030 | 2,138 | 2,246 | 2,365 | 2,483 | 2,604 | 2,732 | 2,869 | 3,008 | |||
Mandatory Spending
Less Offsetting Receipts |
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Budget | 786 | 809 | 853 | 898 | 944 | 986 | 1,032 | 1,096 | 1,167 | 1,244 | 1,296 | 1,368 | 1,455 | 1,544 | 1,642 | |||
Cyclical adjustments | -1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | * | * | * | |||
Other adjustments | 17 | 30 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 5 | -7 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4 | |||
Standardized | 802 | 842 | 877 | 916 | 963 | 1,004 | 1,055 | 1,109 | 1,176 | 1,240 | 1,307 | 1,380 | 1,460 | 1,548 | 1,646 | |||
Discretionary Spending | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | 534 | 548 | 555 | 575 | 608 | 638 | 656 | 676 | 693 | 713 | 728 | 744 | 765 | 785 | 804 | |||
Freeze baseline | 534 | 548 | 555 | 575 | 608 | 625 | 627 | 628 | 623 | 625 | 622 | 620 | 621 | 621 | 621 | |||
Capped baseline | 534 | 548 | 555 | 575 | 608 | 579 | 571 | 587 | 602 | 617 | 633 | 648 | 665 | 681 | 698 | |||
Interest Payments Less
Earnings from Excess Cash |
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Budget | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | 241 | 244 | 243 | 230 | 224 | 218 | 201 | 174 | 151 | 126 | 101 | 72 | 41 | 7 | -29 | |||
Freeze baseline | 241 | 244 | 243 | 230 | 224 | 217 | 199 | 170 | 143 | 114 | 81 | 45 | 5 | -39 | -88 | |||
Capped baseline | 241 | 244 | 243 | 230 | 224 | 215 | 194 | 161 | 133 | 102 | 70 | 34 | -4 | -46 | -91 | |||
Inflation adjustment | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -69 | -68 | -43 | -55 | -81 | -73 | -65 | -56 | -46 | -39 | -32 | -24 | -15 | -4 | 7 | |||
Freeze baseline | -69 | -68 | -43 | -55 | -81 | -73 | -65 | -55 | -44 | -36 | -27 | -17 | -5 | 8 | 24 | |||
Capped baseline | -69 | -68 | -43 | -55 | -81 | -73 | -64 | -53 | -41 | -33 | -24 | -13 | -1 | 12 | 26 | |||
Standardized | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | 172 | 176 | 200 | 175 | 144 | 145 | 136 | 118 | 105 | 87 | 68 | 48 | 26 | 3 | -22 | |||
Freeze baseline | 172 | 176 | 200 | 175 | 144 | 144 | 134 | 115 | 98 | 77 | 54 | 28 | 1 | -31 | -64 | |||
Capped baseline | 172 | 176 | 200 | 175 | 144 | 142 | 130 | 108 | 91 | 70 | 46 | 21 | -5 | -34 | -65 | |||
Total Surplus | ||||||||||||||||||
Budget | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -107 | -22 | 70 | 124 | 232 | 268 | 312 | 345 | 369 | 402 | 469 | 523 | 565 | 625 | 685 | |||
Freeze baseline | -107 | -22 | 70 | 124 | 232 | 281 | 344 | 397 | 447 | 503 | 594 | 673 | 745 | 834 | 927 | |||
Capped baseline | -107 | -22 | 70 | 124 | 232 | 329 | 405 | 446 | 478 | 522 | 595 | 655 | 711 | 781 | 853 | |||
Cyclical adjustment | 27 | 4 | -22 | -45 | -95 | -107 | -90 | -69 | -50 | -37 | -25 | -14 | -4 | * | * | |||
Other adjustmentsa | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -2 | -32 | -60 | -51 | -31 | -20 | -39 | -41 | -46 | -38 | -64 | -78 | -80 | -91 | -105 | |||
Freeze baseline | -2 | -32 | -60 | -51 | -31 | -20 | -40 | -41 | -48 | -41 | -69 | -85 | -91 | -104 | -122 | |||
Capped baseline | -2 | -32 | -60 | -51 | -31 | -20 | -41 | -44 | -51 | -44 | -73 | -89 | -94 | -107 | -124 | |||
Standardized | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -82 | -50 | -11 | 28 | 106 | 142 | 183 | 235 | 273 | 327 | 379 | 430 | 480 | 533 | 580 | |||
Freeze baseline | -82 | -50 | -11 | 28 | 106 | 155 | 214 | 286 | 349 | 425 | 499 | 574 | 650 | 730 | 806 | |||
Capped baseline | -82 | -50 | -11 | 28 | 106 | 203 | 275 | 333 | 377 | 441 | 497 | 552 | 612 | 674 | 729 | |||
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SOURCES: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. | ||||||||||||||||||
NOTES: The cyclical adjustments to revenues are negative when actual gross domestic product exceeds potential GDP. By contrast, the cyclical adjustments to mandatory spending are positive when the unemployment rate is less than the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The cyclical adjustments to the budget surplus equal the cyclical adjustments to revenues minus the cyclical adjustments to mandatory spending. | ||||||||||||||||||
* = less than $500 million. | ||||||||||||||||||
a. This category includes timing adjustments that affect discretionary spending but are not shown above. Table 4 provides details of the "other adjustments" category. | ||||||||||||||||||
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For next year, CBO projects that the stance of fiscal policy will be somewhat restrictive unless discretionary spending is held to the current cap. If that occurs, the dampening effect of fiscal policy on short-term growth will be roughly as strong as in 2000.
Under all three variations of CBO's baseline, the projected improvement in the standardized-budget surplus over the next decade is substantial. A significant decline relative to potential GDP in both discretionary spending and real (inflation-adjusted) interest payments is largely responsible for the rosier outlook (see Table 3). And even if discretionary spending grows at the rate of inflation, real economic growth will reduce that spending as a share of potential GDP from 6.4 percent in 2000 to 5.2 percent in 2010. Other variants of the baseline, which assume less discretionary spending, imply larger declines in those outlays relative to potential GDP.
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Table 3. Details of the Standardized-Budget Surplus Under Alternative Versions of CBO's Baseline, Fiscal Years 1996-2010 (As a percentage of potential gross domestic product) |
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Actual
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Projected
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1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | ||||
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Revenues | ||||||||||||||||||
Budget | 18.7 | 19.3 | 20.1 | 20.3 | 21.2 | 21.1 | 20.9 | 20.6 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 20.2 | 20.1 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | |||
Cyclical adjustment | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | * | * | * | |||
Other adjustments | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 | |||
Standardized | 18.3 | 18.5 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.4 | 19.4 | |||
Mandatory Spending
Less Offsetting Receipts |
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Budget | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.6 | |||
Cyclical adjustment | * | * | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | |||
Other adjustments | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | * | 0.1 | 0.1 | * | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | * | * | * | |||
Standardized | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.6 | |||
Discretionary Spending | ||||||||||||||||||
Cyclical adjustments | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | |||
Other adjustments | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 | |||
Standardized | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | |||
Interest Payments Less
Earnings from Excess Cash |
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Budget | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | * | -0.2 | |||
Freeze baseline | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | * | -0.3 | -0.6 | |||
Capped baseline | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | * | -0.3 | -0.6 | |||
Inflation adjustment | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | * | * | |||
Freeze baseline | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | * | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||
Capped baseline | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | * | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||
Standardized | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | * | -0.1 | |||
Freeze baseline | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | * | -0.2 | -0.4 | |||
Capped baseline | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | * | -0.2 | -0.4 | |||
Total Surplus | ||||||||||||||||||
Budget | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -1.4 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | |||
Freeze baseline | -1.4 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | |||
Capped baseline | -1.4 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | |||
Cyclical adjustment | 0.4 | * | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | * | * | * | |||
Other adjustmentsa | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | * | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.7 | |||
Freeze baseline | * | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | |||
Capped baseline | * | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.8 | |||
Standardized | ||||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | |||
Freeze baseline | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.2 | |||
Capped baseline | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | |||
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SOURCES: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. | ||||||||||||||||||
NOTES: The cyclical adjustments to revenues are negative when actual GDP exceeds potential GDP. By contrast, the cyclical adjustments to mandatory spending are positive when the unemployment rate is less than the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The cyclical adjustments to the budget surplus equal the cyclical adjustments to revenues minus the cyclical adjustments to mandatory spending. | ||||||||||||||||||
* = less than 0.05 percent. | ||||||||||||||||||
a. This category includes timing adjustments that affect discretionary spending but are not shown above. Table 4 provides details of the "other adjustments" category. | ||||||||||||||||||
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In the case of revenues, the standardized-budget estimates rise slightly from 19.2 percent of potential GDP in 2000 to 19.4 percent in 2010. That growth occurs despite a projected decline in actual (unadjusted) revenues--from 21.2 percent to 20 percent--over that same period. The projections of standardized-budget revenues exclude capital gains taxes and changes in revenues attributable to the business cycle, both of which depress projected revenue growth relative to potential GDP. At the same time, the projections include three factors that boost the growth of individual income taxes and thus help to offset the projected decline in other revenue categories (mainly corporate taxes) as shares of potential output. First, effective tax rates rise over time as growth in real incomes push taxpayers into higher tax brackets--an effect known as real bracket creep. Second, higher nominal income raises the number of taxpayers subject to the alternative minimum tax, whose rate brackets are not indexed for inflation; that phenomenon also pushes up effective tax rates. Third, CBO's revenue projections assume that taxable retirement income grows faster than potential GDP. Consequently, taxes on that income rise relative to potential output.
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Table 4. Other Adjustments to the Standardized-Budget Surplus Under Alternative Versions of CBO's Baseline, Fiscal Years 1996-2010 |
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Actual
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Projected
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1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||
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In Billions of Dollars | |||||||||||||||||
Revenues | |||||||||||||||||
Capital gains | -51 | -71 | -82 | -91 | -98 | -94 | -91 | -89 | -87 | -87 | -87 | -88 | -89 | -91 | -94 | ||
Timing | 0 | 1 | 4 | -5 | -4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Other | 0 | 0 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Mandatory Outlays | |||||||||||||||||
Deposit insurance | -8 | -14 | -4 | -5 | -3 | * | * | 1 | * | * | * | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | ||
Asset sales | -4 | -5 | -10 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -5 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -3 | -3 | ||
Spectrum auctions | * | -11 | -3 | -2 | -1 | -4 | -6 | -4 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | * | 0 | 0 | ||
Timing | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Interest Payments | |||||||||||||||||
(Adjustment for Inflation) | |||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | 69 | 68 | 43 | 55 | 81 | 73 | 65 | 56 | 46 | 39 | 32 | 24 | 15 | 4 | -7 | ||
Freeze baseline | 69 | 68 | 43 | 55 | 81 | 73 | 65 | 55 | 44 | 36 | 27 | 17 | 5 | -8 | -24 | ||
Capped baseline | 69 | 68 | 43 | 55 | 81 | 73 | 64 | 53 | 41 | 33 | 24 | 13 | 1 | -12 | -26 | ||
Discretionary Outlays | |||||||||||||||||
(Adjustment for Timing) | |||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | * | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Freeze baseline | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Capped baseline | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | * | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
As a Percentage of Potential GDP | |||||||||||||||||
Revenues | |||||||||||||||||
Capital gains | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 | ||
Timing | 0 | ** | ** | -0.1 | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Other | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Mandatory Outlays | |||||||||||||||||
Deposit insurance | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ||
Asset sales | ** | -0.1 | -0.1 | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ||
Spectrum auctions | ** | -0.1 | ** | ** | ** | ** | -0.1 | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | ||
Timing | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Interest Payments | |||||||||||||||||
(Adjustment for Inflation) | |||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ** | ** | ||
Freeze baseline | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ** | -0.1 | -0.2 | ||
Capped baseline | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ** | -0.1 | -0.2 | ||
Discretionary Outlays | |||||||||||||||||
(Adjustment for Timing) | |||||||||||||||||
Inflated baseline | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ** | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Freeze baseline | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ** | 0 | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Capped baseline | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ** | ** | ** | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
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SOURCES: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. | |||||||||||||||||
NOTE: * = less than $500 million; ** = less than 0.05 percent. | |||||||||||||||||
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Table 5. The Standardized-Budget Deficit or Surplus and Related Series, Fiscal Years 1956-1999 (In billions of dollars) |
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Budget
Deficit (-) or Surplus |
Cyclical
Adjustmenta |
Other Adjustmentsb |
Standardized-Budget
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Deficit
(-) or
Surplus |
Revenues | Outlays | |||||||||||
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1956 | 4 | * | 7 | 11 | 73 | 62 | |||||||
1957 | 3 | * | 6 | 10 | 79 | 69 | |||||||
1958 | -3 | * | 4 | 1 | 78 | 78 | |||||||
1959 | -13 | -1 | 2 | -11 | 77 | 88 | |||||||
1960 | * | * | * | * | 90 | 90 | |||||||
1961 | -3 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 97 | 94 | |||||||
1962 | -7 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 99 | 104 | |||||||
1963 | -5 | 2 | * | -4 | 106 | 110 | |||||||
1964 | -6 | -1 | 1 | -6 | 109 | 115 | |||||||
1965 | -1 | -4 | 2 | -4 | 111 | 115 | |||||||
1966 | -4 | -13 | 3 | -14 | 116 | 130 | |||||||
1967 | -9 | -12 | * | -21 | 132 | 153 | |||||||
1968 | -25 | -11 | 5 | -31 | 139 | 171 | |||||||
1969 | 3 | -15 | * | -11 | 162 | 173 | |||||||
1970 | -3 | -6 | 2 | -7 | 177 | 184 | |||||||
1971 | -23 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 186 | 197 | |||||||
1972 | -23 | * | 4 | -20 | 200 | 220 | |||||||
1973 | -15 | -14 | 8 | -21 | 214 | 234 | |||||||
1974 | -6 | -10 | 18 | 2 | 251 | 249 | |||||||
1975 | -53 | 20 | 31 | -2 | 296 | 298 | |||||||
1976 | -74 | 24 | 14 | -37 | 308 | 344 | |||||||
1977 | -54 | 12 | 28 | -13 | 356 | 369 | |||||||
1978 | -59 | -3 | 29 | -33 | 389 | 421 | |||||||
1979 | -41 | -12 | 37 | -17 | 443 | 460 | |||||||
1980 | -74 | 14 | 44 | -16 | 516 | 532 | |||||||
1981 | -79 | 24 | 39 | -16 | 606 | 622 | |||||||
1982 | -128 | 55 | 23 | -50 | 647 | 698 | |||||||
1983 | -208 | 81 | 8 | -119 | 646 | 765 | |||||||
1984 | -185 | 30 | 12 | -143 | 672 | 815 | |||||||
1985 | -212 | 15 | 20 | -178 | 722 | 899 | |||||||
1986 | -221 | 8 | * | -213 | 747 | 960 | |||||||
1987 | -150 | 8 | -15 | -157 | 809 | 966 | |||||||
1988 | -155 | -9 | 36 | -129 | 868 | 997 | |||||||
1989 | -152 | -19 | 55 | -116 | 937 | 1,054 | |||||||
1990 | -221 | -9 | 109 | -121 | 990 | 1,112 | |||||||
1991 | -269 | 45 | 72 | -152 | 1,064 | 1,216 | |||||||
1992 | -290 | 68 | 40 | -183 | 1,125 | 1,308 | |||||||
1993 | -255 | 62 | 15 | -178 | 1,174 | 1,352 | |||||||
1994 | -203 | 39 | 28 | -136 | 1,255 | 1,391 | |||||||
1995 | -164 | 24 | 7 | -133 | 1,338 | 1,471 | |||||||
1996 | -107 | 27 | -2 | -82 | 1,428 | 1,510 | |||||||
1997 | -22 | 4 | -32 | -50 | 1,516 | 1,566 | |||||||
1998 | 70 | -22 | -60 | -11 | 1,620 | 1,632 | |||||||
1999 | 124 | -45 | -51 | 28 | 1,695 | 1,666 | |||||||
|
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SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||||||||
NOTE: * = less than $500 million. | |||||||||||||
a. The cyclical adjustment is positive when cyclical conditions are temporarily depressing revenues and raising outlays. | |||||||||||||
b. Consists of deposit insurance, receipts from auctions of licenses to use portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, timing adjustments, asset sales, adjustments for certain changes in the amount of taxes overwithheld, adjustments for temporary tax changes, the inflation component of federal interest payments, tax receipts from capital gains, and contributions from allied nations for Operation Desert Storm (which were received in 1991 and 1992). | |||||||||||||
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Table 6. The Standardized-Budget Deficit or Surplus and Related Series, Fiscal Years 1956-1999 (As a percentage of potential GDP) |
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|
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Budget
Deficit (-) or Surplus |
Cyclical
Adjustmenta |
Other Adjustmentsb |
Standardized-Budget
|
|||||||||
Deficit
(-) or
Surplus |
Revenues | Outlays | ||||||||||
|
||||||||||||
1956 | 1.0 | * | 1.6 | 2.6 | 17.7 | 15.1 | ||||||
1957 | 0.8 | * | 1.4 | 2.2 | 17.8 | 15.6 | ||||||
1958 | -0.6 | * | 0.8 | 0.2 | 16.7 | 16.5 | ||||||
1959 | -2.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -2.2 | 15.6 | 17.8 | ||||||
1960 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | * | 17.4 | 17.4 | ||||||
1961 | -0.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 17.8 | 17.3 | ||||||
1962 | -1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.8 | 17.2 | 18.0 | ||||||
1963 | -0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -1.6 | 17.5 | 18.1 | ||||||
1964 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 17.1 | 18.0 | ||||||
1965 | -0.2 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 16.4 | 17.0 | ||||||
1966 | -0.5 | -1.8 | 0.4 | -1.9 | 16.1 | 18.0 | ||||||
1967 | -1.1 | -1.6 | * | -2.7 | 17.0 | 19.7 | ||||||
1968 | -3.0 | -1.4 | 0.6 | -3.7 | 16.6 | 20.3 | ||||||
1969 | 0.4 | -1.6 | * | -1.2 | 17.7 | 19.0 | ||||||
1970 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.7 | 17.7 | 18.4 | ||||||
1971 | -2.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -1.0 | 17.1 | 18.1 | ||||||
1972 | -2.0 | * | 0.3 | -1.7 | 16.9 | 18.6 | ||||||
1973 | -1.2 | -1.1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 16.8 | 18.4 | ||||||
1974 | -0.4 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 17.7 | 17.6 | ||||||
1975 | -3.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 18.3 | 18.4 | ||||||
1976 | -4.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -2.0 | 17.2 | 19.3 | ||||||
1977 | -2.7 | 0.6 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 17.8 | 18.5 | ||||||
1978 | -2.7 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -1.5 | 17.6 | 19.0 | ||||||
1979 | -1.6 | -0.5 | 1.5 | -0.7 | 17.9 | 18.6 | ||||||
1980 | -2.7 | 0.5 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 18.6 | 19.2 | ||||||
1981 | -2.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.5 | 19.4 | 19.9 | ||||||
1982 | -3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | -1.5 | 18.9 | 20.3 | ||||||
1983 | -5.6 | 2.2 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 17.6 | 20.8 | ||||||
1984 | -4.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -3.7 | 17.1 | 20.8 | ||||||
1985 | -5.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | -4.3 | 17.3 | 21.5 | ||||||
1986 | -5.0 | 0.2 | * | -4.8 | 16.9 | 21.7 | ||||||
1987 | -3.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -3.3 | 17.3 | 20.6 | ||||||
1988 | -3.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | -2.6 | 17.4 | 20.0 | ||||||
1989 | -2.9 | -0.4 | 1.0 | -2.2 | 17.5 | 19.7 | ||||||
1990 | -3.9 | -0.2 | 1.9 | -2.1 | 17.3 | 19.5 | ||||||
1991 | -4.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 17.5 | 20.0 | ||||||
1992 | -4.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | -2.8 | 17.5 | 20.4 | ||||||
1993 | -3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | -2.6 | 17.4 | 20.1 | ||||||
1994 | -2.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | -1.9 | 17.8 | 19.7 | ||||||
1995 | -2.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -1.8 | 18.1 | 19.8 | ||||||
1996 | -1.4 | 0.4 | * | -1.0 | 18.3 | 19.4 | ||||||
1997 | -0.3 | * | -0.4 | -0.6 | 18.5 | 19.1 | ||||||
1998 | 0.8 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 18.9 | 19.0 | ||||||
1999 | 1.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 18.9 | 18.5 | ||||||
|
||||||||||||
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||||||||
NOTE: * = less than 0.05 percent. | ||||||||||||
a. The cyclical adjustment
is positive when cyclical conditions are temporarily depressing revenues
and raising outlays.
b. Consists of deposit insurance, receipts from auctions of licenses to use portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, timing adjustments, asset sales, adjustments for certain changes in the amount of taxes overwithheld, adjustments for temporary tax changes, the inflation component of federal interest payments, tax receipts from capital gains, and contributions from allied nations for Operation Desert Storm (which were received in 1991 and 1992). |
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|
1. The new adjustments are the subject of a recent CBO memorandum, The Standardized Budget: Revised Historical Estimates (June 2000).