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Book Review
Interdisciplinary Public Health
Reasoning and Epidemic Modelling: The Case of Black Death
George Christakos, Ricardo A. Olea, Marc L. Serre, Hwa-Lung Yu, and
Lin-Lin Wang
Springer, Berlin, Germany, 2005
ISBN: 3-540-25794-2
Pages: 320; Price: US $129.00
Suggested
citation for this article
Because public health officials increasingly rely on mathematical models
to help them prevent and control diseases, this book is a very timely
addition to the literature. The authors' overall theme is that generating
accurate and useful (to public health officials) mathematical models of
disease epidemiology and the impact of interventions requires a true interdisciplinary
approach. They maintain that there is a need to incorporate knowledge
and data from both physical and life sciences into such models. For example,
the authors argue that information should be included on the clinical
(life science) aspects of a disease (e.g., incubation period, efficiency
of transmission), as well as on how the disease spreads geographically
(physical science) over time (different communities could experience very
different patterns of spread). They also note that the onus of improving
models does not lie solely with the modelers. Users, particularly public
health officials, are part of an interdisciplinary team. Consequently,
users have to better acquaint themselves with what models can and cannot
do (i.e., the production of mathematical "black boxes" is not
entirely the fault of the modelers). The authors illustrate their themes
by comprehensively examining the spread of the Black Death in the mid-1300s.
Many Emerging Infectious Diseases readers are likely to find this book
overly technical, containing many mathematical formulas, mathematical
notations, and complex graphs. However, a reader willing to ignore the
potential intimidation of such material may find interesting discussions
of modeling philosophy, such as the importance of including probability
(i.e., uncertainty or "randomness") and the impact of space-time.
For the latter, even the most ardently nonmathematical reader is likely
to be fascinated by the maps in Chapter 5 that depict the spread of the
Black Death. The data required to model (map out) the spread of disease
over time and space require intensive "detective work," to which
epidemiologists and public health officials can readily contribute. Readers
interested in the background data related to the epidemiology of the Black
Death will probably enjoy perusing the detailed, annotated data appendices.
This would be a fine addition to a technical library as a resource for
persons who conduct sophisticated mathematical modeling. However, persons
looking for a more general historic overview of the Black Death (how it
spread and its consequences) would be advised to consider other works
such as those by McNeill (1) or Cantor (2).
References
- McNeill WH. Plagues and peoples. New York: Anchor
Books; 1998.
- Cantor NF. In the wake of the plague: the Black Death and the world
it made. New York: Perennial; 2001.
Martin I. Meltzer*
*Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Suggested citation
for this article:
Meltzer MI. Interdisciplinary
public health reasoning and epidemic modelling: the case of Black Death
[book review]. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2006 Feb [date
cited]. Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no02/05-1330.htm
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