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Family History Score as a Predictor of Breast Cancer Mortality: Prospective data from the Cancer Prevention Study II, United States, 1982-1991
Quanhe Yang, Muin Khoury, Carmen Rodriguez, Eugenia E. Calle, Lilith M. Tatham, and W. Dana Flanders

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Tables

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TABLE 1: Distribution of families by the observed number of first degree relatives with breast cancer and by family history score (FHS): Cancer Prevention Study II, United States, 1982-1

FHS*
Observed number of relatives with breast cancer
Kappa Statistics
0
1
2
3+
0
420,136
0
0
0
k=0.65 (SEH=.0015)
1
0
10,979
0
0
z = 430
2
0
10,871
104
0
3
0
9,268
1,585
130
Total
420,136
31,118
1,689
130

* All families with positive FHS were divided into three equal groups, I.e.,1 = low, first 33%;
2 = medium, second 33%; and 3 = high FHS, third 33%.
H SE, standard error.

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TABLE 2: Family characteristics by different methods of classifying family history of breast cancer: Cancer Prevention Study II, United States, 1982-1991

Family history of breast cancer
Number of families
Average family size* (SD)
Mean age of family members (SD)
Percent white
Number of affected relatives (SD)
Expected number of cases (SD)
Mean FHSH (SD)
Observed cases
0
420136
3.3 (1.3)
60.4 (9.9)
93.8
0.0
0.048 (.027)
0.0
1
31118
3.6 (1.3)
61.1 (9.1)
96.4
1.0
0.049 (.030)
5.0 (2.0)
2
1689
4.5 (1.2)
62.6 (8.0)
97.3
2.0
0.063 (.030)
8.6 (2.8)
3+
130
5.5 (1.1)
62.2 (7.7)
97.7
3.0
0.073 (.034)
12.5 (4.1)
FHSI
0
420136
3.3 (1.3)
60.4 (9.9)
93.8
0.0
0.048 (.027)
0.0
1
10979
4.6 (1.2)
66.4 (7.0)
97.6
1.0
0.082 (.025)
3.3 (0.5)
2
10975
3.3 (1.0)
61.4 (7.7)
96.3
1.1 (0.1)
0.042 (.011)
4.8 (0.4)
3
10983
2.9 (1.1)
55.8 (9.1)
95.5
1.2 (0.4)
0.026 (.018)
7.6 (2.2)
All families
453073
3.3 (1.3)
60.5 (9.9)
94.0
0.08 (0.28)
0.049 (.027)
0.38 (1.5)

* The family includes mothers and sisters only.
H SD = Standard deviation; FHS, family history score.
I We divided all families with positive family history score (FHS) into three equal groups (1 = low, first 33%; 2 = medium, second 33%; and 3 = high FHS, third 33%)

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TABLE 3: Comparison of the effect of different family history definitions on the risk of fatal breast cancer: Cancer Prevention Study II, United States, 1982-1991

Age of participants (years)
Observed no. of breast cancer cases in family
FHS*,H
1
2
1
2
3
Relative hazard
95% CI*
Relative hazard
95% CI
Relative hazard
95% CI
Relative hazard
95% CI
Relative hazard
95% CI
Unadjusted
< 40
4.9
2.0-11.8
I
I
I
I
I
I
5.1
2.1-12.4
40-49
2.3
1.6-3.4
0.99
0.26-4.2
0.75
0.11-5.4
1.7
1.3-2.8
3.3
2.2-4.9
50-59
1.8
1.4-2.4
1.06
0.25-4.2
1.4
0.80-2.3
1.9
1.3-2.8
1.9
1.3-3.0
>= 60
1.3
0.96-1.6
1.07
0.40-2.9
1.0
0.68-1.5
1.5
0.97-2.2
1.7
0.96-2.9
All age
1.7
1.4-2.0
2.0
1.1-3.6
1.3
0.97-1.7
1.8
1.4-2.3
2.0
1.6-2.6
Fully adjusted ζ
All age
1.6
1.4-1.9
1.7
0.94-3.1
1.0
0.8-1.4
1.6
1.3-2.1
2.3
1.8-2.9

* FHS, family history score; CI, confidence interval.
H All families with positive FHS were divided into three equal groups, I.e., 1 = low, first 33%; 2 = medium, second 33%; and 3 = high FHS, third 33%.
I The relative hazard can not be calculated because there were no cases of breast cancer in the category.
ζ Estimates were adjusted for menopausal status; age at menarche; age when first living child was born; history of breast cysts; oral contraceptive use; other estrogen use; body-mass index; diethystilbestrol (DES); education; religion; race; alcohol use; smoking status; and among postmenopausal women, the age at which periods stopped.

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TABLE 4: Summary of estimates from proportional hazard and logistic analysis by different family history classifications: Cancer Prevention Study II, United States, 1982-1991

Proportional Hazard
Logistic regression
Family history
Relative hazard*
95% CIH
Relative risk*
95% CI
R2
R2 adj
C statistics
Observed breast cancer casesI
1.49
1.30-1.73
1.50
1.30-1.73
0.033
0.085
0.73
FHSHI
1.10
1.07-1.13
1.10
1.07-1.12
0.036
0.091
0.75
Observed breast cancer casesζ
0
1.0
1.0
1
1.59
1.36-1.27
1.59
1.36-1.28
2+
1.71
0.94-3.09
1.72
0.95-3.10
0.035
0.087
0.73
FHSζ
0
1.0
1.0
1
1.06
0.78-1.43
1.06
0.78-1.45
2
1.64
1.27-2.14
1.66
1.29-2.19
3
2.31
1.80-2.96
2.30
1.80-2.95
0.039
0.099
0.77

* Estimates were adjusted for menopausal status; age at menarche; age when first living child was born; history of breast cysts; oral contraceptive use; other estrogen use; body-mass index; diethystilbestrol (DES); education; religion; race; alcohol use; smoking status; and among postmenopausal women, the age at which periods stopped.
H CI, confidence interval; FHS, family history score.
I Observed breast cancer cases and FHS used as continuous variables.
ζ Observed breast cancer cases and FHS used as categorical variables. All families with positive FHS were divided into three equal groups, i.e., 1 = low, first 33%; 2 = medium, second 33%; and 3 = high FHS, third 33%.

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Page last reviewed: April 1, 1998 (archived document)
Page last updated: December 11, 2007
Content Source: National Office of Public Health Genomics