PACJET Projects |
HMT 2004
PACJET 2003
PACJET 2002
PACJET 2001
CALJET 1998
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PACJET 2001 IOPs |
IOP 1: 20 Jan 2001
IOP 2: 23 Jan 2001
IOP 3: 25 Jan 2001
IOP 4: 31 Jan 2001
IOP 5: 1 Feb 2001
IOP 6: 6 Feb 2001
IOP 7: 9 Feb 2001
IOP 8: 10 Feb 2001
IOP 9: 11 Feb 2001
IOP 10: 12 Feb 2001
IOP 11: 17 Feb 2001
IOP 12: 18 Feb 2001
IOP 13: 21 Feb 2001
IOP 14: 24 Feb 2001
IOP 15: 25 Feb 2001
IOP 16: 1 Mar 2001
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Background |
About Pacjet
CALJET Summary
Societal Impacts and User Input
Linkages to National Priorities
USWRP
Data Assimilation Implementation Plan
March 2001 Program Status Report
PACJET 2001 Poster
NSSL Briefing
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Program Documents |
PACJET and a Long-term Effort
to Improve 0-24 h West Coast Forecasts
Overview Poster
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Research Participants |
NOAA Research
ETL,
NSSL,
FSL,
AL,
CDC
National Weather Service Western Region
Eureka,
Hanford,
Medford,
Monterey,
Oxnard,
Portland,
Reno,
Sacramento,
San Diego,
Seattle,
CNFRC
Office of Marine and Aviation Operations
AOC
Naval Postgradute School
DRI CIASTA
CIRES
SUNY Stony Brook
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
EMC,
HPC,
MPC
National Environmental Satellite, Data
and Information Service
CIMSS,
CIRA
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Operational Forecasting Components |
COMET Presentation
West Coast RUC
Aircraft Obs via AWIPS
GWINDEX Poster
Applications Development
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Research Components |
Modeling Research Components
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Related Experiments |
Winter Storm Reconnaissance (Central Pac.)
CRPAQS (CA Air Quality)
IMPROVE (Microphysics)
THORPEX (Synoptic Targeting)
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Observing Systems |
AEROSONDE
NOAA P-3
Wind Profiler Network
Satellite Products
NOAA S-band Radar
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Contacts |
Program
Media Contacts
Webmaster
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Workshops |
2001 - Monterey, CA
July 13-14 2000 (Boulder, CO)
July Workshop Agenda
September 1999 - Monterey, CA
1999 Planning Workshop Figures
June 1998 - CALJET
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Program Status for Saturday, 24 February 2001 : IOP 14
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Status (Updated: 2304 PST Saturday, 24 Feb)
Next Update: Sunday, 25 Feb 1500 PST.
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Saturday, February 24 |
P3 operations have concluded for today.
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Sunday, February 25 |
Weather briefing 1000 PST.
Possible P3 flight.
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Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Observations |
0707 UTC
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at 31.94N, 122.46W, 582mb:
heading: 5deg at 15000 ft
winds: 300deg, 14kt
air temp: -13.0degC
dewpt temp: -18.5degC
mix rat: 1.5 g/kg
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0618 UTC
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at 31.35N, 124.27W and spiralled
down to give the following sounding
north of rainband:
P(mb) Ht(m) T(degC) Td(degC) ff(kt) dd(deg)
550 4903 -13.9 -15.7 30 227
600 4242 -11.2 -13.8 18 282
650 3621 -7.4 -10.7 15 288
700 3046 -3.0 -6.4 15 260
750 2490 0.1 -0.2 20 271
800 1973 3.2 2.3 23 282
850 1472 5.8 0.5 21 282
900 1006 8.9 -12.1 19 288
925 779 9.2 -0.1 14 312
950 560 10.1 5.7 11 327
975 342 11.5 10.1 10 322
As P3 has been observing it, rainband has moved
very little; almost stationary.
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0604 UTC
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At 30.6N, 124.0W made a drop south of rainband
which gave the following sounding:
P(mb) Ht(m) T(degC) Td(degC) ff(kt) dd(deg)
537 - -15.5 -17.5 - -
672 - -5.3 -7.0 - -
700 3059 -3.7 -5.2 14 275
791 - 1.4 0.3 - -
850 1498 5.6 2.3 21 255
878 - 6.8 5.5 - -
913 - 9.0 5.9 - -
925 801 9.6 6.8 27 260
1000 148 13.6 12.4 24 240
1018-SFC 14.8 13.3 16 235
As P3 has been observing it, rainband has moved
very little; almost stationary.
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0600 UTC
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at 30.63N, 124.00W, 537 mb:
heading: 167deg at 17000 ft
winds: 265deg, 27kt
air temp: -15.4degC
dewpt temp: -17.4degC
mix rat: 1.8g/kg
Are currently exploring what we consider
to be the trailing cold front. Just made a
drop south of the rainband location. Will
relay drop information when it becomes
available.
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0544 UTC
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at 31.68N, 124.45W, 539 mb
heading: 164deg at 17000 ft
winds: 225deg, 24kt
air temp: -15.7degC
dewpt temp: -17.8degC
mix rat: 1.8g/kg
The remainder of the mission will be mapping
the structure of the trailing cold front
offshore.
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0519 UTC
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at 32.16N, 124.29W, 980 mb
heading: 256deg at 1000 ft.
winds: 339deg, 14kt
air temp: 11.6degC
dewpt temp: 7.3degC
mix rat: 6.5g/kg
Current thinking is to end chase of
offshore IR feature and head south to
possible trailing cold front in order
to sample it. Will drop an AXBT in ~5
minutes and turn toward the south.
No echoes were apparent at low levels
below the offshore IR "wave" feature.
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0508 UTC
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32.39N, 123.49W, 980mb:
heading: 256deg at 1000 ft
winds: 355deg, 13kt
air temp: 11.1degC
dewpt temp: 7.7degC
mix rat: 6.6g/kg
On our westward leg, the surface pressure
has been gradually rising, inconsistent with
cyclogenesis in region of what appears to be
a "baroclinic leaf" in IR imagery near 126W.
As of 0507 UTC, no echoes can be seen out to
200 km west of P3 (32.40N, 123.44W).
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0501 UTC
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32.50N, 123.04W, 979.5mb:
heading: 257deg at 1000 ft moving to pt 7'
(pt 7' at 32.75N, 125W)
winds: 341deg, 12kt
air temp: 11.2degC
dewpt temp: 7.3degC
mix rat: 6.5g/kg
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0450 UTC
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0433 UTC
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at 33.00N, 121.08W, 978mb:
heading: 258deg at 1000 ft
winds: 328deg, 11kt
air temp: 11.5degC
dewpt temp: 8.0degC
mix rat: 7.1g/kg
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0423 UTC
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0402 UTC
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at 33.73N, 119.54W, 845mb:
heading: 193deg, at 5000 ft
winds: 260deg, 8kt
air temp: 6.1degC
dewpt temp: 3.3degC
mix rat: 5.7g/kg
Have finished looking in Santa Barbara channel
and are now focusing on feature offshore. Will be
using 32.75N, 125W as the center point w/ a radius
of operation of about 100 miles about the center
point.
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0347 UTC
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at 34.28N, 119.49W, 978mb
heading: 98deg at 1000 ft, about to head south
winds: 84deg, 28kt
air temp: 7.2degC
dewpt temp: 5.7degC
mix rat: 6.0g/kg
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0330 UTC
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at 34.36N, 120.55, 978 mb:
heading: 91deg at 1000 ft, moving to pt 3:
winds: 104deg, 29kt
air temp: 8.3degC
dewpt temp: 7.7degC
mix rat: 6.8g/kg
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0316 UTC
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at 35.00N, 121.14W, 978 mb:
heading: 149deg at 1000 ft, moving to pt 2:
winds: 167deg, 16kt
air temp: 10.5degC
dewpt temp:7.6degC
mix rat:6.7g/kg
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0253 UTC
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at 36.17N, 122.11W, 913mb:
heading: 152deg at 4000 ft, moving to pt 2
air temp: 6.0degC
dewpt temp: 0.5degC
mix rat: 4.4g/kg
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Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Forecast Discussion |
0546Z
IR imagery shows little change in cloud-top temperatures or general
organization in the past hour. The cold front should be located along a
line from 33.9N 120.4W to 33.0N 121.4W past 32.2N 122.6 W. 00Z model
data shows no deepening of the frontal wave this evening or overnight as
it approaches the southern California coast. Otherwise, a general
amplification/digging of the upper trough will cause the main precip
band to pivot its WSW-ENE orientation to more SW-NE overnight.
0425z
Last hour's precipitation...
Ventura Co...
Santa Paula Creek -- 0.20
Matilijia Dam -- 0.10
Nordhoff Ridge -- 0.31
Santa Barbara Co...
La Cumbre Peak -- 0.12
Montecito -- 0.11
0415z IR image shows that back edge of the possible baroclinic leaf is
approaching 32.75n/125w. Continuing to move east at around 65 kt, and
using linear extrapolation, the feature should be near the coast by
0730-0800z. Coldest cloud tops around the area in question continue to
be -54C.
Dutter
0358z
Looks like baroclinic leaf at 127w is moving east at about 60 kt. Not as
much cloud enhancement with the wave now compared to an hour ago. Quick
look at the MesoEta and it seems like the model does not have any
baroclinicity in the area in question.
0348z
03z IR picture continues to show cloud tops of -51C about 90 miles west
of SBA and 150 miles west of SBA. However...radar from KVBX shows little
shower activity offshore with more widespread showers along the the
eastern coastal sections of Santa Barbara County. No rainfall reports
from Santa Barbara County over the past hour ending at 03z...but in
Ventura County, 0.16 reported at Nordhoff Ridge, La Granada Mtn -- 0.20,
Sycamore Cyn Dam -- 0.12. Goleta profiler reported east winds at 35 kt
at 600m with Simi Valley reporting east winds at 20 kt from 700m to
900m.
Dutter
0258Z
IR Satellite shows enhancement near the developing wave at 31.8n/126.6w
with cloud tops of -51C. Front might have slowed a little...with the
front remaining to the north of Point Conception. KSMX reports winds of
16010kt at 03z and the Channel Island buoys still report easterly winds
at 24-26g30kt. Some precipitation reports over the past two hours ending
at 02z are:
Santa Barbara Co...
San Marcos Pass: 0.12
Gibralter Dam: 0.16
Ventura Co...
Nordhoff Ridge: 0.20
NF Matilija Creek: 0.32
Not much precipitation over Orange and LA Counties over the past couple
of hours...even though water vapor shows best plume of mid level
moisture continuing over that area.
Dutter
0150Z
Latest Obs from the area...
METAR KMRY 250154Z 19005KT 10SM OVC055 12/07 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP127
T01170072
METAR KSMX 250151Z 15014KT 10SM BKN033 BKN046 OVC080 11/08 A2992 RMK AO2
RAB13E49 SLP134 P0000 T01060078
METAR KSBA 250153Z 07009KT 8SM OVC023 09/09 A2995 RMK AO2 RAE0055B37E51
SLP142 P0001 T00940094
METAR KLAX 250150Z 09011KT 2SM -RA BR BKN013 OVC017 09/08 A3003 RMK AO2
SFC VIS 2 1/2 RAB0053 SLP170 P0003 T00890078
IR satellite shows some enhanced cloud tops (-50C) at 33.7n/122.6w and
moving east...most likely associated with the front. KVBX 88D shows only
scattered showers at best over the Santa Barbara area. Continuing to see
weak development 32n/127w...moving east at 45-50 kt. Feature still looks
very weak...but it may be enough to hold up the front slightly the wave
approaches the coast. Best moisture plume still centered over L.A. and
Orange Counties...with KVTX 88D continuing to show the best returns to
the east and south of Oxnard.
0108Z
Looks like best rain has shifted a little further south than what we
were thinking this morning. The KVTX 88D is now showing the best returns
to the south and east of Oxnard. Satellite and buoy obs show the front
approaching Point Conception...with an axis of deep moisture extending
from 30n/130w northeast through Orange County. The 18z MesoEta now shows
the front slowly moving through Oxnard by 09z with the Theta-E axis
centered over eastern Ventura County by that time. However...to
complicate matters, latest satellite pictures show a possible wave
forming along the front near 32N/128W. GOES winds show a 100+ knot jet
moving into the area which is stronger than what the MesoEta depicted,
and might be helping the development of the wave. No sign of development
from buoy or ship observations now, but will continue to monitor. If
this this trend continues...the front may slow down as the wave moves
eastward...which may help to cause more rainfall over the Santa Ynez and
Santa Monica Mountains. Stay Tuned. Also...at Buoys 54 and 53 in the
Santa Barbara Channel the winds remain 08024KT. More observations
shortly.
Dutter
Feb 24 1035 PST
LATEST ETA INITIALIZED FEATURES ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WELL THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGES OUT OF KMUX SHOW THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST AT 1755Z...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MONTEREY BAY BY
1900Z. WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. A SUBTROPICAL TAP IS NOTED WITH SSMI PRECIPTABLE WATER AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OF WELL OVER AN INCH. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
FRONT SLOWING DOWN AFTER IT MOVES SOUTH OF BIG SUR. HIGH 850MB THETA-E
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (AROUND 305K) WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MEANS EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM PT CONCEPTION SOUTHWARD TO LOS ANGELES TONIGHT. ETA QPF AROUND AN
INCH TONIGHT OVER THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS SEEMS PRETTY
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE SLOWER
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM STOPS IT'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE THE JET DIGS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH LOS ANGELES BY 00Z MONDAY...BUT PLENTY OF
MOIST AIR IS STILL STREAMING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH 850
MB THETA-E RIDGING AND PRECIPTABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH. CONTINUED
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...AND A STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 06Z MONDAY...SHOULD MEAN ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS FROM L.A. SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
INTERESTING TO NOTE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER
IS SHOWED A VERY LOW MELTING LEVEL THIS MORNING (AROUND 700 M)...AND
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. POSSIBLY SOME COLD TRAPPED AIR...DUE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING FILTERING EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THAT
IS PROBABLY WHY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAVE LOWER SNOW LEVELS THAN WHAT THE
MODELS SHOWED.
FOR THE EXTENDED...A QUICK LOOK AT THE MRF SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE JET STREAM FOCUSED MORE ON
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONE STORM
IS PROGGED BY THE MRF TO AFFECT WASHINGTON STATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DUTTER
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Flight Plan |
MRY-1-2-3-4
| 1,000 ft.
|
4
| Spiral ascent to 4,000 ft.
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4-5
| 4,000 ft.
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5
| Spiral ascent to MVA (~8,000 ft)
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5-6
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MVA track for cloud microphysics
|
6
|
Spiral ascent to MVA + 2,000 ft.
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6-5
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MVA + 2,000 ft.
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5
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Spiral ascent to MVA + 4,000 ft.
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5-6
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MVA + 4,000 ft.
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6
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Spiral ascent to MVA + 6,000 ft.
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6-7
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MVA + 6,000 ft.
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7
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Spiral descent to 1,000 ft.
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7-8-9
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Porpoise between 1,000 ft and 5,000 ft.
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9
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Spiral descent to 1,000 ft.
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9-3-4
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1,000 ft.
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4-5-6-7
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Repeat microphysics stack.
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7
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Spiral descent to 1,000 ft.
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7-8-9
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Porpoise between 1,000 ft and 5,000 ft.
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9-MRY
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Transit
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|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Soundings Status
Sounding Status |
24 February |
Bodega Bay | Soundings as event develops. |
Cazadero | Soundings as event develops. |
Oakland | Special soundings requested at 15, 18 and 21 Z. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
25 February |
Bodega Bay | Soundings as event develops. |
Cazadero | Soundings as event develops. |
Oakland | Special soundings requested at 3, 6, and 9 Z. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
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