Skip Navigation
small header image
Projections of Education Statistics to 2017

NCES 2008-078
September 2008

Section 3. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)

The expected 8 percent national increase in public high school graduates, by state: 2004–05 through high school graduates between 2004–05 and 2017–18 2017–18 plays out differently among the states (reference figure 23 and tables 25 and 26).

Table C. Projected percentage changes in the number of public high school graduates, by state: 2004–05 through 2017–18

State Percent change    State Percent change
Nevada 66.1   Louisiana -43.2
Arizona 62.5   Vermont -23.9
Utah 37.6   North Dakota -21.5
Georgia 34.4   Rhode Island -20.6
Texas 32.9   Maine -17.9
North Carolina 28.3   New Hampshire -13.5
Idaho 26.4   Montana -12.5
Florida 24.9   South Dakota -11.4
Colorado 18.4   Hawaii -10.3
Arkansas 17.0   Wyoming -10.1
Delaware 15.8   New York -9.8
Indiana 15.4   Massachusetts -7.2
Virginia 11.3   Kansas -5.5
Tennessee 10.9   Michigan -5.2
New Jersey 8.9   Maryland -4.9
South Carolina 8.2   Wisconsin -4.6
Alabama 6.4   Connecticut -4.5
Washington 5.9   Minnesota -4.0
Kentucky 5.7   West Virginia -3.7
Iowa 4.6   Pennsylvania -2.9
New Mexico 4.5   Ohio -2.9
District of Columbia 4.3   Alaska -1.6
Illinois 4.0   Nebraska -0.9
Oklahoma 3.6      
Mississippi 3.1      
California 2.4      
Missouri 2.1      
Oregon 1.9      
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public High School Graduates Model. (See reference table 26.)

States

The expected 8 percent national increase in public high school graduates, by state: 2004–05 through high school graduates between 2004–05 and 2017–18 2017–18 plays out differently among the states (reference figure 23 and tables 25 and 26).

  • Increases are projected for 27 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 12 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 7 states; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 8 states and the District of Columbia.
  • Decreases are projected for 23 states, with
    • decreases of 15 percent or more projected for 5 states;
    • decreases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 9 states; and
    • decreases between 4.99 and 0.1 percent projected for 9 states.

Regions

Between 2004–05 and 2017–18, the number of public high school graduates is projected to

  • increase 18 percent in the South;
  • increase 12 percent in the West;
  • decrease less than 1 percent in the Midwest; and
  • decrease 5 percent in the Northeast.

Top