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Figure 1. Substantiation outcomes
It is a pie chart that shows the percentage of cases for each child maltreatment case disposition category (substantiated, unsubstantiated, and indicated) as reported by child welfare system caseworkers at NSCAW baseline (4 to 5 months after the investigation for child maltreatment). The chart shows that 62.1 percent of the maltreatment cases were reported to be unsubstantiated, 29.7 percent were substantiated, and 8.2 percent indicated maltreatment but were not substantiated.
Figure 2. Caseworker ratings of harm and risk to the child
It is a bar graph that shows the frequency distributions of child welfare system caseworkers’ assessments of harm to the child and risk to the child. The data are for all cases in the NSCAW sample, both substantiated and unsubstantiated. The horizontal axis shows, from left to right, four sets of bars labeled according to increasing severity of harm or risk (none, mild, moderate, and severe).The vertical axis gives the percentage of all child welfare system cases for each of the four levels of harm and risk. Each set of bar graphs contains two bars. A legend indicates that the leftmost bar represents caseworkers’ assessment of harm to the child; the rightmost bar represents caseworkers’ assessment of riskof future harm to the child.
In the first set of bars, the first bar shows that 44.1 percent of cases had a reported harm level of none; the second bar shows that 31.1 percent of cases had a risk level of none. In the second set of bars, the first bar shows that 28.3 percent of cases had a reported harm level of mild; the second bar shows that 36.8 percent of cases had a risk level of mild. In the third set of bars, the first bar shows that 20.0 percent of cases had a reported harm level of moderate; the second bar shows that 22.2 percent of cases had a risk level of moderate. In the fourth set of bars, the first bar shows that 7.6 percent of cases had a reported harm level of severe; the second bar shows that 9.9 percent of cases had a risk level of severe.
Figure 3. Caseworker ratings of evidence of maltreatment
It is a bar graph that shows the frequency distribution of child welfare system caseworkers’ assessments of the strength of evidence of child maltreatment. The horizontal axis shows, from left to right, five bars representing five levels of evidentiary strength in ascending order (no evidence, clearly insufficient, probably insufficient, probably sufficient, and clearly sufficient). The vertical axis gives the percentage of cases meeting each of these levels of evidentiary strength.
The first bar shows that 34.3 percent of cases were judged to have no evidence of child maltreatment. The second bar shows that 16.8 percent of cases were judged to have clearly insufficient evidence of child maltreatment. The third bar shows that 11.4 percent of cases were judged to have probably insufficient evidence of child maltreatment. The fourth bar shows that 8.8 percent of cases were judged to have probably sufficient evidence of child maltreatment. The fifth bar shows that 28.7 percent of cases were judged to have clearly sufficient evidence of child maltreatment.
Figure 4. Percentage of cases substantiated, by levels of harm and evidence
It is a line graph that shows the relationship of child maltreatment substantiation rates to how caseworkers rated the severity of harm to the child and to how they rated the strength of the evidence of child maltreatment. The horizontal axis is labeled with the four categories of harm level (none, mild, moderate, and severe).The vertical axis gives the child maltreatment case substantiation rate as a percentage of all child maltreatment cases in the NSCAW sample. The legend at the bottom of the figure shows three different line configurations for the graph. The first line represents clearly sufficient evidence of child maltreatment. The second line represents probably sufficient evidence of maltreatment. The third line represents probably insufficient to no evidence of maltreatment.
The three lines plot the relationship between substantiation rate and level of harm as a function of the strength of the evidence. The top line, which represents cases deemed to have clearly sufficient evidence of child maltreatment, shows that of child maltreatment cases reportedly having no harm, 52.3 percent were substantiated. Of those having mild harm, 70.2 percent were substantiated. Of those having moderate harm, 86.7 percent were substantiated. Of those having severe harm, 82.2 were substantiated.
The middle line in the graph represents probably sufficient evidence of child maltreatment. Of those child maltreatment cases reportedly having no harm, 49.0 percent were substantiated. Of those having mild harm, 46.3 percent were substantiated. Of those having moderate harm, 68.3 percent were substantiated. Of those having severe harm, 15.2 percent were substantiated.
The bottom line in the graph represents probably insufficient or no evidence of child maltreatment. Of those child maltreatment cases reportedly having no harm, 2.2 percent were substantiated. Of those having mild harm, 2.5 percent were substantiated. Of those having moderate harm, 26.8 percent were substantiated. Of those having severe harm, 15.2 were substantiated.
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