By MARK F. HALL
Ties among member states of the European Union will grow stronger in the future, while the Union will broaden as it begins to admit neighboring states of Eastern Europe as members. At the same time, the economic and geographic dichotomy of Europe will shift from an East-West axis to a North-South axis.
Making these predictions was Sir John Kerr, British ambassador to the United States, who lectured on June 7 before a capacity crowd in the Mumford Room. The lecture was sponsored by the Humanities and Social Sciences Division.
Joking that "predictions are dangerous, particularly about the future," Sir John nevertheless set out what he believed to be the most likely scenario for the development of the European Union (EU).
One current trend in planning the EU is a move away from the European model that was popular during the 1980s, when planners believed they needed an extensive program to deal with the continent's social problems. Instead, officials now recognize that such a program would be impractical, requiring a central government on a scale that the European Union could never support, Sir John said.
Another priority for Europe is to increase its competitiveness in the job market. According to Sir John, unemployment in Europe averages more than 10 percent; in some countries, such as Spain, it is more than 20 percent. Creating jobs in Europe is difficult. One reason, he said, is the high nonwage cost of labor, caused by such factors as employee benefits and the expense of hiring and firing workers in a bureaucratic environment. Moreover, linguistic and cultural differences among various member states limit flexibility in the labor markets, thus preventing the kinds of labor migrations that occur in America.
Sir John predicted there would be a population shift, with the number of people in the south doubling by the year 2020 as a result of immigration from North Africa, bringing with it an increase in the problems associated with Islamic fundamentalism. Meanwhile, the population in the northern countries will decline, owing to a reduced birthrate and an aging population. Like America, Europe will experience an increase in the proportion of its population that is older than 65, which will create a financial burden on younger generations.
As the European Union absorbs Eastern European countries, it will face problems similar to Germany's after its reunification. According to Sir John, 12 countries applying for membership in the European Union have a total of 100 million people with an average per capita income that is only one-fourth that of EU members. Among the factors necessary for a successful expansion of the union, the level of agricultural subsidies will have to be reduced and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) will have to be adjusted, Sir John said.
As for economic and monetary policy, he predicted that the move toward a single monetary policy and a common currency will continue, but slowly. A common currency will be introduced, probably in 2002, but only in countries that meet criteria for deficits and levels of debt by the time a final decision is made, in 1998. According to Sir John, Luxembourg is the only country that currently meets the criteria. Surprisingly, in spite of its deficits and national debt, the United States would qualify, he said. He noted that Great Britain and Denmark are not yet committed to using a common currency, and it would probably be some time before it is politically acceptable in those countries.
"For those who follow such things," Sir John listed three sets of meetings he believes will be significant in determining the future of the European Union. First, negotiations on EU expansion are scheduled to begin in about six months. Second, a General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) will be reviewed toward the end of the decade. Third, a reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, which sets levels for agricultural subsidies, probably will take place during a financial review in 1998-99, he said.
Sir John envisions a European Union with deeper ties among sovereign member countries and more members, but still no central government. Europe will remain confusing and difficult for other parts of the world to deal with, he said, but its minds and markets will remain open, and it will continue to defend the same Western values and maintain the same balance between freedom and law.
Sir John would not even guess about the long-term future of the European Union. Instead, he likened his work of helping to create the Union to that of a medieval cathedral builder who placed stones where they belonged, never knowing what the finished structure would look like decades later.
Sir John, born in Grantown-on-Spey in Scotland in 1942, was educated at Glasgow Academy and Pembroke College, Oxford. After joining the Foreign Service in 1965, he worked in various roles on NATO defense issues. In 1984 and 1986, he accompanied Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to meetings with President Reagan at Camp David. In 1990 he became the United Kingdom's permanent representative to the European Union. In addition, he served as the Foreign Secretary's personal representative in the Inter-Governmental Conferences, which negotiated the Maastricht Treaty in 1991. He became ambassador to the United States in 1995.
Dr. Billington, who introduced the ambassador, noted that former Sen. J. William Fulbright, had also attended Pembroke as a Rhodes Scholar. In turn, Sir John pointed out that Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) had attended Pembroke as a Rhodes Scholar as well, and the ambassador joked that for a time he was hopeful that Pembroke graduates would take over the entire Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Dr. Billington also noted that relations between the Library of Congress and the British government have vastly improved, since their "rocky beginning" (when the British burned the Library during the War of 1812, when it was housed in the U.S. Capitol).
Mark Hall is a cataloger in the Copyright Office.