Section 5. Elementary and Secondary Teachers: Accuracy of Projections

An analysis of projection errors from the past 17 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for projections of classroom teachers in public elementary and secondary schools were 1.0 percent for 1 year out, 1.5 percent for 2 years out, 2.7 percent for 5 years out, and 6.1 percent for 10 years out. For more information on the MAPEs of different NCES projection series, see table A-2 in appendix A.