Appendix
E

CBO’s Economic Projections for 2008 to 2018

The tables in this appendix expand on the information in Chapter 2 by showing the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) year-by-year economic projections for 2008 to 2018 (by calendar year in Table E-1 and by fiscal year in Table E-2). CBO does not forecast cyclical fluctuations in its projections for years after 2009. Instead, the projected values shown in the tables for 2010 through 2018 reflect CBO’s assessment of average values for that period. That assessment takes into account economic and demographic trends but does not attempt to forecast the frequency and size of ups and downs in the business cycle.

Table E-1. 

CBO’s Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018

		Estimated		Forecast			Projected
		2007		2008	2009		2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Nominal GDP
(Billions of dollars)		13,828		14,330	14,997		15,812	16,651	17,453	18,243	19,062	19,896	20,758	21,654	22,593
Nominal GDP
(Percentage change)		4.8		3.6	4.7		5.4	5.3	4.8	4.5	4.5	4.4	4.3	4.3	4.3
Real GDP
(Percentage change)		2.2		1.7	2.8		3.5	3.4	2.9	2.6	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.4
GDP Price Index
(Percentage change)		2.5		1.9	1.8		1.8	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
PCE Price Indexa
(Percentage change)		2.5		2.6	1.8		1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
Core PCE Price Indexb
(Percentage change)		2.1		1.9	1.9		1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
Consumer Price Indexc
(Percentage change)		2.8		2.9	2.3		2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
Core Consumer Price Indexd
(Percentage change)		2.3		2.2	2.2		2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
Employment Cost Indexe
(Percentage change)		3.4		2.9	2.7		2.9	3.2	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3
Unemployment Rate
(Percent)		4.6		5.1	5.4		5.1	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8
Three-Month Treasury
Bill Rate (Percent)		4.4		3.2	4.2		4.6	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7
Ten-Year Treasury
Note Rate (Percent)		4.6		4.2	4.9		5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2
Tax Bases
(Billions of dollars)
	Economic profits	1,599		1,620	1,649		1,678	1,731	1,791	1,842	1,905	1,993	2,091	2,200	2,320
	Wages and salaries	6,368		6,615	6,913		7,318	7,633	8,037	8,401	8,778	9,149	9,535	9,936	10,354
Tax Bases
(Percentage of GDP)
	Economic profits	11.6		11.3	11.0		10.6	10.4	10.3	10.1	10.0	10.0	10.1	10.2	10.3
	Wages and salaries	46.0		46.2	46.1		46.3	45.8	46.1	46.0	46.0	46.0	45.9	45.9	45.8

 

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Notes: GDP = gross domestic product; percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

a. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index.

b. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.

c. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

e. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry.

Table E-2. 

CBO’s Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018

		Actual		Forecast			Projected
		2007		2008	2009		2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Nominal GDP
(Billions of dollars)		13,670		14,201	14,812		15,600	16,445	17,256	18,043	18,856	19,685	20,540	21,426	22,355
Nominal GDP
(Percentage change)		5.0		3.9	4.3		5.3	5.4	4.9	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.3	4.3	4.3
Real GDP
(Percentage change)		2.2		2.0	2.3		3.4	3.5	3.0	2.6	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.4	2.4
GDP Price Index
(Percentage change)		2.7		1.9	1.9		1.8	1.8	1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
PCE Price Indexa
(Percentage change)		2.2		2.9	1.9		1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
Core PCE Price Indexb
(Percentage change)		2.1		1.9	1.9		1.8	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9	1.9
Consumer Price Indexc
(Percentage change)		2.3		3.2	2.3		2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
Core Consumer Price Indexd
(Percentage change)		2.4		2.2	2.2		2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2
Employment Cost Indexe
(Percentage change)		3.4		3.0	2.7		2.8	3.1	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.3
Unemployment Rate
(Percent)		4.5		4.9	5.3		5.2	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8
Three-Month Treasury
Bill Rate (Percent)		4.7		3.2	3.9		4.6	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7	4.7
Ten-Year Treasury
Note Rate (Percent)		4.7		4.2	4.7		5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2
Tax Bases
(Billions of dollars)
	Economic profits	1,586		1,604	1,648		1,667	1,717	1,776	1,830	1,888	1,969	2,065	2,172	2,289
	Wages and salaries	6,290		6,555	6,828		7,186	7,573	7,947	8,309	8,682	9,056	9,437	9,834	10,248
Tax Bases
(Percentage of GDP)
	Economic profits	11.6		11.3	11.1		10.7	10.4	10.3	10.1	10.0	10.0	10.1	10.1	10.2
	Wages and salaries	46.0		46.2	46.1		46.1	46.1	46.1	46.0	46.0	46.0	45.9	45.9	45.8

 

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Board.

Notes: GDP = gross domestic product; percentage changes are measured from one year to the next.

a. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index.

b. The personal consumption expenditure chained price index excluding prices for food and energy.

c. The consumer price index for all urban consumers.

d. The consumer price index for all urban consumers excluding prices for food and energy.

e. The employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry.