Release of CCSP Synthesis & Assessment Product on Reanalysis and Attribution of Climate
December 29, 2008
 CCSP Synthesis & Assessment Product 1.3 Report Cover |
NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division researchers were major contributors to a scientific report on reanalysis and attribution of variations and changes in recent climate, which was released on December 11, 2008. Randall Dole was overall product lead, and Marty Hoerling was convening lead author for the chapter on attribution. This report, Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 1.3: "Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key Atmospheric Features: Implications for Attribution of Causes of Observed Change," assessed the potential for abrupt climate changes from global warming during this century. Findings based on state-of-the-art research suggest that 1) rapid and sustained September arctic sea ice loss is likely in the 21st century; 2) the southwestern U.S. may be beginning an abrupt period of increased drought; 3) it is very likely that the northward flow of warm water in the upper layers of the Atlantic Ocean, which has an important impact on the global climate system, will decrease by approximately 25Ð30 percent. 4) an abrupt change in sea level is possible, but predictions are highly uncertain due to shortcomings in existing climate models; and 5) there is unlikely to be an abrupt release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere from deposits in the earth. However, it is very likely that the pace of emissions will increase.
The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) integrates federal research on climate and global change, as sponsored by thirteen federal agencies and overseen by the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Council on Environmental Quality, the National Economic Council and the Office of Management and Budget. SAP 1.3 is one in a series of more than 20 synthesis and assessment reports being produced by the CCSP.
Conclusions from CCSP SAP 1.3 indicate the need for further research to improve our understanding of the risks associated with abrupt climate change. NOAA is positioned to provide the scientific expertise needed to help mitigate societal impacts to the U.S. and around the globe.
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