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Research

Modeling Potential Responses to Smallpox as a Bioterrorist Weapon

Martin I. Meltzer,* Inger Damon,* James W. LeDuc,* and J. Donald Millar†
*Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; and †Don Millar & Associates, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Figure 4. Daily and total cases of smallpox after quarantining infectious persons at two daily rates and three postrelease start dates. The graphs demonstrate that if quarantine is the only intervention used, a daily removal rate of >50% is needed to stop transmission within 365 days postrelease. At a 25% daily removal rate of infectious persons by quarantine, a cohort of all those entering the first day of overt symptoms (i.e., rash) is entirely removed within 17 days (18 to 20 days postincubation) after the first day of overt symptoms, with 90% removed within 9 days. At a 50% daily removal of infectious persons by quarantine, a cohort of all those entering their first day of overt symptoms (i.e., rash) is entirely removed within 7 days (8 to 10 days postincubation) after the first day of overt symptoms, with 90% removed within 4 days. The daily rate of removal (quarantine) relates only to the removal of those who are infectious (i.e., overtly symptomatic). The rate does not include any persons who may be quarantined along with overtly symptomatic patients, such as unvaccinated household contacts. Data generated by assuming 100 persons initially infected and a transmission rate of 3 persons infected per infectious person. For clarity, the graphs of daily cases do not include the assumed 100 initially infected persons. The graphs of total cases include the 100 initially infected.

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Figure 4. Daily and total cases of smallpox after quarantining infectious persons at two daily rates and three postrelease start dates. The graphs demonstrate that if quarantine is the only intervention used, a daily removal rate of >50% is needed to stop transmission within 365 days postrelease. At a 25% daily removal rate of infectious persons by quarantine, a cohort of all those entering the first day of overt symptoms (i.e., rash) is entirely removed within 17 days (18 to 20 days postincubation) after the first day of overt symptoms, with 90% removed within 9 days. At a 50% daily removal of infectious persons by quarantine, a cohort of all those entering their first day of overt symptoms (i.e., rash) is entirely removed within 7 days (8 to 10 days postincubation) after the first day of overt symptoms, with 90% removed within 4 days. The daily rate of removal (quarantine) relates only to the removal of those who are infectious (i.e., overtly symptomatic). The rate does not include any persons who may be quarantined along with overtly symptomatic patients, such as unvaccinated household contacts. Data generated by assuming 100 persons initially infected and a transmission rate of 3 persons infected per infectious person. For clarity, the graphs of daily cases do not include the assumed 100 initially infected persons. The graphs of total cases include the 100 initially infected.
 


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This page last reviewed December 08, 2001

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention