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Estimating
the Number of Malaria Deaths In Africa
Malaria
is a leading cause of death and illness worldwide. As most people who
die from malaria are African children less than 5 years old, having accurate
information about this group is especially important. Valid estimates
of the number of malaria deaths are useful for monitoring the impact of
prevention and control activities, targeting public health interventions,
and advocacy. Unfortunately, the information systems of most African countries
do not produce dependable estimates.
To
fill this gap, a variety of estimates have been proposed using mathematical
models, but most have been simplistic or lacked documentation of the methods
and data. A recent model, which the World Health Organization currently
uses to produce annual malaria estimates, identified populations at risk
for malaria with a model that predicts where the climate is suitable for
malaria transmission [1]. The malaria mortality rate, from an analysis
of field studies, was applied to these malaria-risk populations to produce
an estimate of about 766,000 deaths among African children less than 5
years old for the year 1995. This model was recently refined to account
for variations in malaria transmission intensity, and about 742,000 malaria
deaths were estimated for the year 2000 [2]. Although these two latter
models were considerably superior to previous ones, they still can be
refined and improved.
For the past several years, with support from the World Health Organization,
a group of public health experts (called the Child Health Epidemiology
Reference Group) has been developing improved estimates of the leading
causes of death and illness among children in developing countries. Working
groups have been created to estimate the number of malaria deaths and
cases for African children. The new malaria statistics will be available
by the end of 2004.
References
1.
Snow R, Craig M, Deichmann U, Marsh K. Estimating mortality, morbidity,
and disability due to malaria among Africa's non-pregnant population.
Bulletin of the World Health Organization 1999;77:624–640.
2.
Snow RW, Craig MH, Newton CRJC, Steketee RW. The public health burden
of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa: Deriving the number. Working
Paper No. 11, Disease Control Priorities Project. Bethesda, Maryland:
Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health. August
2003. Internet address: http://www.fic.nih.gov/dcpp/.
Related Sources:
Page last modified : April 23, 2004
Content source: Division of Parasitic Diseases
National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases (ZVED)
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