Abstract
The State of Hawai`i has proposed building a 2,300-bed medium-security prison about 10 km
downslope from the existing Kulani medium-security correctional facility. The proposed and
existing facilities lie on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa, which last erupted in 1984 in this
same general area. We use the best available geologic mapping and dating with GIS software to
estimate the average recurrence interval between lava flows that inundate these sites. Three
different methods are used to adjust the number of flows exposed at the surface for those flows
that are buried to allow a better representation of the recurrence interval. Probabilities are then
computed, based on these recurrence intervals, assuming that the data match a Poisson
distribution. The probability of lava inundation for the existing prison site is estimated to be 11-
12% in the next 50 years. The probability of lava inundation for the proposed sites B and C are 2-
3% and 1-2%, respectively, in the same period. The probabilities are based on estimated recurrence
intervals for lava flows, which are approximately proportional to the area considered. The
probability of having to evacuate the prison is certainly higher than the probability of lava entering
the site. Maximum warning times between eruption and lava inundation of a site are estimated to be
24 hours for the existing prison site and 72 hours for proposed sites B and C. Evacuation plans
should take these times into consideration.
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12 Jan 1999
