McNair Paper Number 45, Contents, October 1995
McNair Paper 45
October 1995
INTRODUCTION
1. "DESIGNING AROUND" I: THE "WAR OF ATTRITION,"
SUCCESS OR FAILURE?
Balance of Interests
Competing Hypotheses
Egypt's and Israel's Interests During the War of Attrition
Egypt's and Israel's Strategies and Secondary Interests
Egypt's Perception of Israel's Strategic and Reputational Interests The Balance of
Capability
Competing Hypotheses
Stein's Critique of Egypt's Strategy
The Balance of Capability in the War of Attrition
Israel's Use of Its Air Force
The Relationship Between Strategy and Objectives in Egypt's Strategy
The Role of Opportunity in Egypt's Decisions to Challenge
Reputations
Why did Egypt Challenge Despite Israel's Reputation for Brinkmanship? Did Egypt
Miscalculate Israel's Capacity for Endurance?
Recreating Reputation-for-Capability in the War of Attrition
The Competition of General Reputations with Other Interests
Crisis Bargaining Behavior
Competing Hypotheses
Why Were Costly Signals Uninformative?
The Failure of Reassurance to Produce Deterrence Stability
Conclusion: "Designing Around," Success or Failure?
2. "DESIGNING AROUND" II: THE YOM KIPPUR WAR,
SUCCESS OR FAILURE?
Egypt's Goals and Strategy
Stein's Critique
The Balance of Capability
Crisis Bargaining Behavior
Success or Failure