SPC AC 050725
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 AM CST MON JAN 05 2009
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED ALONG THE MS VALLEY
   WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   AND ERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.  AS THIS OCCURS...TROUGH WILL BECOME
   NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHILE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. 
   MEANWHILE IN THE W...THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
   PACIFIC NW COAST.
   
   IN THE LOW LEVELS...OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE
   UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SECONDARY
   CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. 
   TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
   GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA
   BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
     
   ...ERN CAROLINAS INTO THE FL PENINSULA...
   
   DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARE
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY WITHIN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF QUITE POOR LAPSE
   RATES ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN
   ENVIRONMENT BECOMING ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.  NONETHELESS...
   FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS INDICATES THE
   POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAPID
   STORM MOTIONS.  A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 01/05/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z