An MBendi Profile: Africa - Outlook for the World and Africa in 2021

Hundreds of years ago, when the pace of change was slow, the life of the average person was fairly predictable from one year to the next, despite the march of armies and the deaths of kings. Today, as the pace of change quickens, the future is less clear. At the same time - and possibly because of the emphasis on quarterly results - companies often do not look as far ahead as they should, making it easy to miss long-term business opportunities.

The purpose of this section of our website is to help you to look at the signposts to the future which are all around us and prepare your own view of where the world is going. In some instances you might agree with the views expressed by ourselves at MBendi and our various partners. In other cases, you will disagree, perhaps radically. That is all part of the planning process.

Our thinking on the World and Africa in 2021 is very much influenced by a paper on Peak Oil by Colin Campbell which is reproduced on the MBendi website. The paper points out that for every four barrels of oil consumed, only one barrel is found, so that after 2010 we will see declining oil production. This is a view that is not currently held by many economists, but his logic is compelling. There also seems to be minimal thinking about possible climate changes and their impact.

Africa in the short term might look hopeless - abysmal political leadership, war, HIV / Aids, corruption, lack of infrastructure, and poor economic growth are just some of the problems. However in the medium term we believe that Africa could be a world powerhouse. The ingredients are there in the form of climate, energy resources, mineral resources and natural diversity. Strangely enough, the continent is also a rich source of skilled people, many of whom currently underpin the IT industry of London, the medical profession of Canada or the management and professional ranks of major multinationals.

For Africa to achieve its potential, though, we need political leaders who put their people before themselves and practice what they preach by making Africa the investment centre of choice. The legal, fiscal and investment regimes need to be first-rate; corporate and political governance needs to be efficient and transparent; white-collar and traditional crime needs to be combated ruthlessly; and the skills and infrastructure need to be put in place. Xenophobia, Africa's biggest weakness, must be rooted out, reducing tensions between groups and allowing the deployment of skilled people. Africans also need the self confidence that they can be world leaders.

The World in 2001	The World in 2021
Economic slow-down led by the USA Increased globalisation with greater concern for the impact on developing nations Oil prices in the US$ 25-30 range Slow-down in the privatization of electricity, rail and other monopolistic services Low mineral prices except PGEs which stabilise Surplus beneficiation and manufacturing capacity Communications technology continues to expand and improve and make the world smaller Increased focus on eliminating bribery and corruption International crime increases Weather anomalies persist Merging of stock exchanges proceeds apace as the global electronic marketplace dawns China joins WTO Tensions rise in the Middle East but reduce in the Far East and Africa	Changes in climate around the globe High energy prices resulting from a shortage of hydrocarbon fuels Plastics replaced by silicon compounds High cost of transport puts dampener on trade and tourism Fresh water becomes a critical resource Gold and diamonds become commoditised Population stabilizes Cheap technology reverses urbanization and permeates all the corners of the world Cheap, effective drugs based on knowledge of DNA structure are widely available Internet empowers individuals at the expense of corporate structures and organizations Reduction in the number of currencies used in global economy USA no longer dominates the world but is balanced by China and the wealthy Moslem Middle and Near East
Africa in 2001	Africa in 2021
Increased pressure to end conflicts and reduce arms purchases Transparency and constitutional democracy under threat Increase in incidence of HIV / Aids Few countries benefit from high oil and PGM prices and even in these trickle down is minimal Xenophobia remains a feature of most communities Much-needed debt relief implemented selectively Floods and drought Privatisation, particularly in the telecommunications sector	Rivers of Central Africa make Africa the cheapest source of energy in the world Africa becomes beneficiation and manufacturing center of the world using local minerals and energy African % of tourist trade significantly higher than 2001 Southern Africa becomes bread-basket of the continent as climate changes Post HIV / Aids epidemic population smaller, richer and better educated Malaria and TB eliminated