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National Situation Update: Sunday, January 4, 2009

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Some rain with isolated thunderstorms is possible from Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas. A second area of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the afternoon and evening along a cold front from southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and southeast Texas eastward into central and southern Alabama. After a Saturday record high in the mid 80s, highs will decrease to the 40s in Dallas-Ft. Worth and the 30s in Oklahoma City.  A significant heavy rain event is anticipated late Monday from the Tennessee Valley to the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This could provide significant drought relief to the southern Appalachians, but also could pose a risk of flash flooding.

Midwest
A cold frontal system brings snow to areas in Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula; some areas in the U.P. may see snow accumulations of up to 6 inches. Light freezing rain is forecast from southern and central Wisconsin into parts of Lower Michigan. Highs Sunday will peak at zero in parts of North Dakota and northwest Minnesota; wind chills from -20 to -40 can be expected.

Northeast
Light rain may develop over West Virginia eastward into DC in the morning, and from Pittsburgh to Charleston, W.V. Sunday night. Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain is expected for parts of the Hudson, NY, Connecticut, and Champlain Valleys. 

West
Light snow and low elevation rain will continue into at least early Monday in the Four Corners region of southern Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. Low elevation rain, mountain snow, and strong winds are forecast for Washington and northwest Oregon by late afternoon or early evening. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected in western Washington and western Oregon, with local amounts of over 4 inches possible in the western slopes of the Coastal Ranges. More flash flooding is possible. Snowfall in the 4 to 8 inch range is possible in Spokane, Washington, bringing their season total to 6 feet. (NOAA, NWS and Media Sources)

Flood Warnings for the Illinois River

Flood Warnings continue for the Illinois River; several gauges are reporting moderate flooding although levels are decreasing and should fall below moderate flood stage by Wednesday, January 7. The Flood Warnings are a result of recent heavy rains and snow melt from last weekend; no major flooding is forecast and no gauges are reflecting potential flooding in populated areas. (NWS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No significant activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Western Pacific:
No activity is forecast that affects United States territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Yellowstone National Park
A total of 258 small earthquakes have occurred in and around Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho) since Sunday, December 28, ranging in magnitude from 0.1 to 3.9.

Groups of seismic events that are similar in size, referred to as "swarms", are very common at Yellowstone National Park. The seismic activity that began December 27, 2008 is the largest swarm of earthquakes in the area since 1985; however, Global Positioning System indicators that would provide reports of a change in ground deformation measurements before any kind of eruption have indicated no changes over the last week. Seismic activity appears to be tapering off; there was only one 2.6 magnitude earthquake reported on January 3 with no reports of damage or injury. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, media sources)

Earthquakes Near the North Coast of West Papua, Indonesia
Since Saturday, January 3, a total of 16 strong to moderate earthquakes measuring in magnitude from 4.7 to 7.6 have been reported near the north coast of West Papua, Indonesia, both inland and off the coast. There have been no confirmed reports of deaths or injuries; however, there are unconfirmed media reports of at least one fatality, a small number of injuries, and the destruction of two hotels, two banks and a warehouse near Manokwari, Indonesia, 95 miles south southeast of the epicenter following the 7.6 magnitude earthquake. The quakes were felt in Papua New Guinea and the northern Australian city of Darwin, but there were no reports of major damage or injuries.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reports sea level readings associated with the 7.6 magnitude earthquake indicate that a tsunami was generated, causing tsunami wave activity measuring .1 to .5 feet above normal sea level from Micronesia to Saipan and southern Japan.  No damaging waves were reported.

The recent activity is about 290 miles west of the magnitude 8.2 Irian Jaya earthquake that occurred February 17, 1996. That earthquake produced a tsunami that was destructive on the island of Biak. At least 110 people were killed, 100 injured, 51 reported missing, and over 10,000 were left homeless. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, media)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)