Latest Seasonal Assessment - Excluding the widespread drought areas of the West, only minor changes were made to the previous outlook, released on December 18, 2008. During December, significant drought relief occurred across the upper Ohio Valley and Southeast. Additional improvement can be expected across the upper Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. In contrast, the moderate drought has recently expanded in west-central Florida. During the next three months, the expansion of drought should continue across the Florida peninsula and into southeast Georgia. As the wildfire season approaches, the expected drought development should be closely monitored. Across the Great Lakes region, frequent periods of snowfall have occurred during the past month. Improvement is forecast across southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the upper peninsula of Michigan. Improvement is also forecast in southern and eastern Oklahoma, while drought should persist in south-central Texas and may expand. Persistence is forecast for the small drought areas in southeast Colorado, the northern high Plains, and northwest Montana. The forecast remains a challenge across the western drought areas. The wet, cold pattern during mid-December increased snow-water content values to near average for this time of year. With signals from La Niña composites favoring dryness during the next three months, persistence is forecast for central and southern California, southeast Oregon, and Nevada. Improvement or some improvement is forecast for parts of northern California where climatology is quite wet, while some improvement is forecast for southern Idaho, northwest Utah, and southwest Wyoming. It should be noted that any improvement in the western drought areas may not be realized until the spring snow melt commences. Due to a wet climatology, improvement should continue across the Hawaiian Islands.

Forecaster: B. Pugh

Next Outlook issued: January 15, 2009 at 8:30 AM EDT