SPC AC 051715
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CST MON JAN 05 2009
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   GULF STATES...
   
   ...CENTRAL GULF STATES...
   
   SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME LESS IDENTIFIABLE WITH TIME AS NRN/SRN
   STREAMS EVOLVE OVER THE MS VALLEY INTO A MORE IDENTIFIABLE LONG WAVE
   TROUGH.  WITH SRN FLOW MAINTAINING A POSITIVE TILT IT APPEARS SFC
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL REMAIN WEAK ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  BOTH NAM
   AND GFS SUGGEST ONLY A WEAK SFC WAVE WILL EVOLVE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS SRN LA...THEN TRANSLATE NEWD INTO NWRN GA BY EARLY EVENING. 
   IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THE
   PRIMARY FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR JUST BEHIND THE SFC
   WIND SHIFT WHERE WEAK LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY WILL NOT PROVE
   PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH
   CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THUNDER SHOULD BE NOTED. 
   HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR WILL RECOVER ACROSS SERN LA INTO SRN MS AND
   SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
   THE LOW-MID 70S.  IF THIS OCCURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPPER
   60S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 800-1000 J/KG. 
   GIVEN THAT STRONGEST FORCING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR WITH SOME
   POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED ROTATION.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT FOR
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEEP
   ROTATION WITH SFC-6KM VALUES AT LEAST 60KT...AND STRONG...BUT
   SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAK LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT IT APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WILL BE DUE TO
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 01/05/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z