Slide 14 of 27

Most heating fuel is used in the Northeast, so we looked at costs for an average household in this region using heating fuel for space heating and hot water to compare patterns historically with the forecast. This household will have slightly different average prices than U.S. average winter prices due to slightly different usage patterns.

With normal weather, consumers will use more heating fuel this winter, but their average price should be lower this year than last. Still, in the base case, total expenses would be about $20 higher as a result of the higher usage.

If demand is lower due to warmer weather, prices would be lower than last year, but usage would be about the same. In this case, residential expenses for the typical homeowner would be $60 less than last year.

Colder weather would result in slightly higher prices, but usage would be much higher, resulting in consumers paying over $100 more during the upcoming winter than last year.

Many outcomes are possible, but with the probability of higher usage being somewhat over 50 percent, consumers have an increased probability of somewhat higher bills.