Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing: Kosovo: The Balkans' Moment of Truth?
March 4, 2008
SEN. BIDEN: Welcome, everyone. Today, we're going to be holding a hearing, to state the obvious, on Kosovo. And Kosovo's status has been the last major challenge left after the dissolution of Yugoslavia.
The country has been in limbo up until now, as many of the people have no prospect of securing foreign investments required to rebuild their economy or a political foundation in which to rebuild their society.
For years the United Nations tried to broker an agreement on Kosovo's independence. Unfortunately, Serbia and its Russian patron rejected a plan that would have guaranteed Kosovo supervised independence and provided powerful protections for the Serb minority. Not once during the two years of negotiations on Kosovo's future did Serbia make a case for how continuing Serb sovereignty over the province would improve the lives of ethnic Albanians, who make up 90 percent of Kosovo's population.
In the modern world, sovereignty isn't an ancestral right, it's a sacred trust between government and its people. Slobodan Milosevic violated that trust when he tried to ethnically cleanse Kosovo. And subsequent Serb governments, in my view, have done nothing to re- establish it. Belgrade only wanted to hang on to Kosovo, not the Kosovars who live there.
We live in a world where history matters, but so do human beings. Kosovo could not remain a territorial souvenir of Serbia's past imperial glory. So while resolving Kosovo's status through a unilateral declaration of independence is hardly ideal, I believe it was necessary.
I'm proud the United States was among the first countries in the world to recognize the newly independent Kosovo. Kosovo's new government has to protect the magnificent heritage of Serbia's past, but we must help safeguard Kosovo's future. Kosovo's democratically elected government has agreed to strong protections for Kosovo's ethnic minorities and initiated a series of conciliatory contacts with Kosovo's Serbs.
The people of Kosovo are demonstrating what type of country they want to create. If they succeed, Kosovo will prosper. But it won't be easy. Kosovo is struggling with epic levels of unemployment, widespread corruption and continuing ethnic tensions. But the country possesses significant energy reserves, a young population, and the makings of the world's most pro-western majority Muslim democracy.
If its people continue protecting human rights and combating corruption, Kosovo's leaders will deserve our strong support. And as they work to fulfill their destiny and join the community of nations and international institutions, we should be helpful.
Ideally, we could offer enthusiastic support for Serbia's -- (inaudible) -- Atlantic ambitions as well. Belgrade should be setting the pace by which other countries in the Balkans measure their progress in joining the European Union and NATO. Instead, Serbs have been victimized by leaders who, to misquote Abba Eban, never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
Instead of proceeding boldly toward Europe, leaders in Belgrade have hunkered down for a last stand amid the ruined policies of the recent past. I'm particularly disappointed by the actions of the Serbian government officials who came to office having ousted a tyrant but have now resorted to the same tactics and tirades they once opposed.
Prime Minister Kostunica's continuing refusal to call for the arrest of fugitive war criminals and his opposition to signing the Stabilization and Association agreement of the European Union have severely undermined Belgrade's international standing. Other Serb leaders have been less flagrant in their actions but have still failed to take the tough stands that would allow their country to move forward.
The violence that followed Kosovo's declaration of independence was predictable -- was the preventable result of those individuals stoking fires of public rage and then abdicating responsibility for the consequences. Serbia's government should stop using Kosovo's independence as an excuse to inflict more damage on their wounded nation. It should start to turn the page on its failed policy of the last 15 years and pursue a future as part of Europe.
We cannot allow the dysfunction ripping Belgrade to spread to Kosovo and Bosnia. Americans, Europeans and other international partners have invested too much in those countries to see their democratic ambitions thwarted. Any attempt by Belgrade to sow chaos in either Kosovo or Bosnia's Republic of Serbska should be dealt with quickly and decisively by the European Union and NATO. Serbia's actions should also factor in the decision of foreign investors who are considering projects in their country.
For eight years now, the people of Kosovo and the region have struggled to build their economies and societies on a foundation of uncertainty. Today we have an opportunity to remove that veil of doubt. Europeans and Americans should be wary of calls for hasty disengagement from the region now that Kosovo is on its own.
Tensions will continue to run high during the next few months. Even under ideal circumstances, maintaining stability of the Balkans will require significant infusion of development aid, peacekeeping and robust diplomacy.
I look forward to hearing from the witnesses today on how the United States plans to support Kosovo in the challenging days and weeks ahead. We should recognize Kosovo's independence for the milestone that it is. Managed deftly, it removed the last major stumbling blocks standing between the Balkans and a peaceful and prosperous future.
I now yield to Senator Lugar, Chairman Lugar.
SEN. RICHARD LUGAR (R-IN): Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I join you in welcoming our distinguished witnesses.
The February 18 declaration of independence by Kosovo is an important step toward putting the violence and unstable history of the Balkans in the past. But our work there is certainly not done. The United States and our allies support the integration of Kosovo into international and Euro-Atlantic institutions. We must also be prepared to work closely with Serbia and assist with their goals of joining the European Union and engaging European institutions.
In my view, lasting stability and security in Southeastern Europe requires the military, economic, political integration of the emerging democracies into the existing European structures. The international mission led by the European Union will take over from the United Nations as the leading civilian mission in Kosovo.
The goal must be the creation of a functioning democracy and free-market economy based on the rule of law. I'm hopeful the United States and the European Union have the infrastructure in place to secure a peaceful outcome in the region and to protect the minorities living in Kosovo, as well as their property and cultural heritage. We must not permit social unrest or inter-ethnic violence to re-emerge in the Balkans.
The transatlantic community bears a special responsibility to prevent acts of violence such as those that occurred in 2004 when minorities were attacked and churches and homes were vandalized and burned. This has been a difficult process for Serbia and the Serbian people, but this in no way justifies the events surrounding the attack on the United States embassy in Belgrade.
The absence of significant Serbian security forces to protect international diplomatic facilities is inexcusable. The president and the prime minister of Serbia are responsible for ensuring that the events of February 21 are never repeated.
Despite the events surrounding the attack on the U.S. embassy, NATO and the European Union must stand ready to accelerate engagement and consider membership in transatlantic institutions upon Belgrade's fulfillment of its obligations to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Serbia's entry into NATO's Partnership for Peace program was an important step.
The international community must remain committed to the full and complete implementation of the Ahtisaari plan. The United Nations special envoy, Marti Ahtisaari, describes his proposal as, quote, "a foundation for a democratic and multiethnic Kosovo in which the rights and interests of all members of its communities are firmly guaranteed and protected by institutions based on the rule of law," end of quote.
Last week I offered a resolution expressing the Senate's strong support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to extend invitations for membership to Albania, Croatia and Macedonia at the April 2008 Bucharest summit. The so-called Adriatic three will play an important role in preserving peace and stability in Southeastern Europe.
These countries occupy critical geostrategic locations and are well-suited to deter efforts to destabilize the region through violence. NATO membership for these countries would continue to extend the zone of peace and stability into a critical region that has been encumbered by conflict.
I am hopeful the United States, NATO and the European Union have the wisdom and endurance to see this process through to an outcome that contributes to the security of Europe and lifts the region and its people toward greater security and prosperity.
I thank you, Mr. Chairman.
SEN. BIDEN: Thank you very much.
One of our colleagues has done a great deal of work in this area of the world and has a keen interest. I'd like to yield to -- give him an opportunity to make an opening statement.
Governor.
SEN. GEORGE VOINOVICH (R-OH): Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. You've been very generous with your time and conversations we've had over the last several years about the situation there.
As you know, Southeast Europe is near and dear to my heart. I have spent many hours in meetings, hearings and briefings related to the area and have traveled to the area frequently, perhaps more than any member of this committee.
Like many of us here today, it's been my hope to see all the countries of Southeast Europe peacefully together, integrated fully under the umbrella of the NATO security framework and the European Union. It's my strong belief that by uniting all the countries of the former Yugoslavia under the same economic and security framework, we can bring lasting stability and peace to that part of the world, which has been in turmoil for a good part of its history.
During my time on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I have worked very hard to promote that agenda, and I've been focused on Kosovo because of the status process and because of my fear that Kosovo, if not handled properly, will return that part of the world to violence and instability and prevent the peace we all hope for from coming true.
I'm sure that Ambassador Fried is getting tired of seeing me and hearing this speech, because he and I have had countless conversations over the last four years on these very issues.
Mr. Ambassador, I want to take this opportunity to thank you for being so generous with your time. You have spent a lot of time briefing me on the issue and it's been important for me to know that it is on your front burner.
I believe strongly that the most important thing for the region today is to preserve stability, prevent a return to violence, and keep Southeast Europe on track to integration with NATO.
While I supported an outcome on the status of Kosovo based on mutual agreement between Serbia and Kosovo and the support of the U.N. Security Council, and was very disappointed it did not occur, I believe it is fundamental that the region stay on the path of full integration and peace. I believe it is crucial that all sides reject violence and other forms of provocations that could endanger that goal or send the region into a full-blown economic and security crisis.
Today the Serbian people are very upset and angry, but the majority of the people have not expressed their emotions through aggression or violence. They are protesting peacefully and adhering to a commitment to civility and human rights, although I agree with the chairman and others of our disappointment with the burning of the U.S. Embassy. And I think that the leadership there should have anticipated that something like that could have happened and should have been more on the ball.
In the south there are many enclaves of Kosovar Serb communities. The Serbs do not appear to be leaving in a mass exodus, which many feared. They are definitely unsure of their future, but they're not leaving, and I hope they don't.
For the Serbs to leave Kosovo would be a tragedy, and we must do everything in our power to encourage them to stay, and discourage Belgrade from interfering in their lives. Frankly, I'm very disappointed that Belgrade discouraged them from participating in the Kosovo government for the last several years.
But in order to see any level of progress in Kosovo and the rest of the region, we must work now to make serious gains in trust of Kosovo's Serb populations and other minorities. The time is now, and it will be lost if it's not seized in extraordinary ways by the Kosovo government, at the heavy and constant urging of the United States and the European Union.
The Kosovo government needs to act immediately to implement the promises Ahtisaari agreement, and we need to pressure them to do so. Because of the leading role the U.S. played in Kosovo, we have a primary responsibility in making sure the agreement is implemented and the infrastructure -- and the infrastructure is in place to support it.
We must see concrete, extraordinary actions to show that Kosovo Serbs and other minorities that they can live peacefully in Kosovo without any physical harm or fear of discrimination. We need to see real actions to implement a plan for bringing back refugees and internally displaced people who are not likely to return unless they know they will be settled in places where they can have actual jobs and access to hospitals, police, and freedom to move about without KFOR protection, which is still the case in some parts of Kosovo.
We need to see real actions to stand up a fair judiciary system that is capable and willing to prosecute criminals who commit ethnic violence and crimes, showing minorities that attempts to attack them will be punished swiftly. It's outrageous that there are still criminals from the violent attacks of March 2004 who still have not been brought to justice and punished.
And we need to see real actions to establish the protective zones around Serbian Orthodox churches per the agreement and to provide physical security where needed, based on the request of the churches.
We need to see real actions by the Kosovo government to show minorities that they are going to have a chance at a life in Kosovo, because that is key to making Kosovo work in the long run, and key -- key to their acquiring the respect of the international community and all the benefits that go with true independence, which they desperately want. And because the U.S. and E.U. have played such a large role in the creation of Kosovo, it's our responsibility -- our responsibility to make sure that it does happen.
In spite of my urging to let the Europeans take the leadership on the discussion on the future of Kosovo, the U.S. has been at the forefront of the movement for Kosovo's independence, as so eloquently stated by the chairman of this committee. And we must be in the forefront of making it work for everyone in insisting that the E.U. fulfill its obligations under the Ahtisaar agreement.
And a final comment, I believe we need to recognize how difficult this experience has been for the people of Serbia. This is -- emotional and traumatic for the country and shouldn't be written off lightly by our country.
And with your permission, Mr. Chairman, I'd like to insert in the record the full written statement by Vuk Jeremic, the young, new foreign minister of Serbia whom I have known and respected for many years and was the leader of the -- (inaudible) -- group that got rid of Milosevic and sent him to The Hague. This is an outstanding young man who is now their foreign minister. And if we could put his statement in the record --
SEN. BIDEN: Without objection, it'll be placed in the record.
SEN. VOINOVICH: It is clear that our nation's friendship and relationship with Serbia will not be repaired overnight, but we must stay focused on the goal of repairing it, which is in our mutual interest.
I say this to the administration and my colleagues here today, as well as to my friends in the Serbian diaspora and in Serbia. We cannot forget the importance and value of the U.S.-Serbia friendship. We must do everything in our power to heal the wounds created by the outcome in Kosovo and to avoid making them deeper or irreparable.
We must look to the future and remember our shared goals and values as friends, looking to the brighter days ahead of us and sustaining the bridges that will get us there, for ourselves, for stability in southeast Europe and peace in the world.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
SEN. BIDEN: Thank you very much, Senator.
Our first witness today is the Honorable Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs. Ambassador Fried is a career Foreign Service officer. He's held very prominent positions in both Democrat and Republican administrations. He's currently acting undersecretary for political affairs, following Nick Burns' departure.
And I welcome him today and look forward to his testimony.
MR. FRIED: Thank you, Chairman Biden, Ranking Member Lugar, members of the Committee. And thank you for the opportunity to discuss Kosovo.
We stand today at the end of one of Europe's most tragic episodes, the violent breakup of Yugoslavia. Kosovo's declaration of independence concluded that agonizing process, but opens a new chapter. It brings Europe closer to the goal of -- (inaudible) --at peace; it brings new challenges. Our work there is not done.
As you saw on television two weeks ago, emotions have run high over this issue in Serbia. Serbia strongly opposes Kosovo's independence. We have understood this and have tried and are trying to reach out to Serbia. This makes the mob attack on our embassy and other embassies in Belgrade all the more disgraceful.
The role of some of Serbia's leaders in that violence is not clear, and may never be. But beyond doubt, some Serbian leaders incited the population, creating the environment of hostility that led directly to the attack. We hold the Serbian government responsible for what happened on February 21st as well as for future such incidents. I remind the Serbian authorities of their responsibilities to provide for the security of embassies under the Vienna Convention.
Within Kosovo we have also witnessed provocations and indeed Serbian incitement to violence. Serbs and anyone else have the right to protest Kosovo's independence. But there is no right of violence or intimidation. We urge leaders throughout the region to show responsibility.
The United States opposes and will continue to oppose attempts to partition Kosovo. The choices we faced with Kosovo were limited and we made the best of them. It's important to recall how we got here to understand how we go forward.
The breakup of Yugoslavia was non-consensual and exceedingly violent. It started when Slobodan Milosevic became dictator of Serbia. His aggressive nationalism tore apart the country.
In Kosovo, Milosevic first instituted an apartheid-like system of Serbian ethnic rule, stripping Kosovo of its autonomy within Yugoslavia. An initial marginal resistance in Kosovo grew, propelled by these tactics.
By the end, Milosevic's actions were savage. Entire villages were shelled, civilians were executed, families were massacred, hundreds of thousands of civilians were deported or forced to flee. In 1999 NATO took action and Milosevic capitulated.
In June 1999 the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 1244 which suspended Belgrade's rule of Kosovo, placed Kosovo under interim U.N. administration, and authorized a NATO-led peacekeeping force to provide for a secure environment. That resolution also envisioned a political process to determine Kosovo's future.
Kosovo, under U.N. administration, made progress, but its unresolved status cast a dark shadow. The U.S. administration sought a diplomatic solution. In early 2006, with U.S. support, the U.N. appointed former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari as special envoy with a mandate to negotiate Kosovo's final status.
After 14 months, President Ahtisaari concluded that the parties were deadlocked. He presented to the Security Council a plan which recommended that Kosovo become independent but subject to a period of international supervision and included detailed, extensive measures to protect Kosovo's non-Albanian communities, especially the Serbian community.
Kosovo's leaders accepted this compromise. Serbia's leaders did not. An overwhelming majority of U.N. Security Council members agreed with this recommendation as did United States and Europe. The administration and our European allies did all we could to secure one Security Council endorsement of the Ahtisaari plan but were blocked by Russia.
We supported one last effort to negotiate a solution, the so- called troika of EU, U.S. and Russian negotiators. The mission ended last December, also without success.
The people of Kosovo, understandably, refused to endure perpetual uncertainty. On February 17th, they brought closure to this issue by declaring Kosovo to be an independent and sovereign state. In response, the United States and key European allies have recognized Kosovo's independence. The decision to recognize Kosovo is necessary. The reality was clear -- Serbia was never going to rule Kosovo again. U.N. administration is never meant to be a long-term solution.
From this point, the people of Kosovo have the responsibility to create a state that reaches the standards of a democratic community of nations. Kosovo committed in its declaration of independence to fully implement its obligations under Ahtisaari, which contains broad safeguards for minorities, especially the Serbian community, a plan for the decentralization of government, constitutional guarantees for all citizens and the protection and promotion of cultural and religious sites, particularly those of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo.
Since independence, I can report that Kosovars have moved swiftly to implement their Ahtisaari obligations. The Kosovo assembly have passed in one of its very first sessions nine key Ahtisaari-related laws. Kosovo has prepared a draft constitution, we believe fully consistent with the Ahtisaari plan. Prime Minister Hashim Thaci and President Fatmir Sejdiu have reaffirmed repeatedly and publicly their commitment to all aspects of the Ahtisaari package. Prime Minister Thaci has appointed two ethnic Serbs to his cabinet.
With its consent, Kosovo will be supervised for a period ahead by an international civilian office, primarily a European undertaking but with strong U.S. participation. The United States will cover 25 percent of this office's operating costs and the deputy will be a senior U.S. Foreign Service officer.
The EU is deploying a rule-of-law mission to Kosovo with around 1,900 international staff and over 1,000 local staff, the largest such endeavor the EU has ever undertaken. NATO in its K4 mission will continue to provide security on the ground, authorized under Security Council Resolution 1244.
With our assistance and the support of the World Bank and IMF, Kosovo will be viable. It has massive -- (inaudible) -- coal reserves and a young, motivated population yearning to join the European family. The United States will participate in a major donors conference plan this summer. Kosovo also will require support across the board as it establishes institutions of good government. Thankfully, and with the help of this committee, the United States has learned much since 1989 about how to help post-communist countries who choose the path of reform.
I want to address how Kosovo's independence affects relations with Serbia and Russia. Serbia has every right to participate in providing for the welfare of Serbs in Kosovo as provided in the Ahtisaari plan. But Serbia must put aside politics of nationalism. In the end, Serbia faces a choice whether to move toward Europe or self-imposed isolation.
Russia was a close part of the diplomatic efforts on Kosovo and closely involved in the Ahtisaari process, including the plan to provide protection for the Serbs in Kosovo. We urge Russia to explicitly call for calm and responsibility in ways that will be heard unambiguously by Serbia and by the Serbs in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Let me address concerns that independence for Kosovo sets a precedent for other separatist conflicts. In our view, it simply does not. Kosovo's independence is the result of the break up of Yugoslavia into many successor nations. The Kosovo situation includes many factors simply not found elsewhere, including this and the fact that Kosovo has been administered by the U.N. for nine years.
Let me urge, in particular, the leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina to remember their country's future lies with Europe. The constitutional structure of Bosnia needs improving, and the United States and their European partners would support the improvement but not the abolition of the Dayton arrangements, and this only through negotiations not threats or ultimatums. We are prepared to work cooperatively with the leaders of the Bosniac-Croat Federation, Republika Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole on this basis.
The United States and our European allies have done and will do all within our power to bring a sustainable solution to the Kosovo challenge. In Kosovo, as with other Yugoslav problems, the United States did not have a choice among the risk-free options. But I believe that the path we took was the right one.
Mr. Chairman, I look forward to your questions.
SEN. BIDEN: Thank you very much. Mr. Secretary, what we're going to do is -- is do seven-minute rounds here.
And let me begin by asking you a few short questions. The administration and European Union have largely staked their policy in the region on the ability of Serbian democrats to pull their country toward the West. However, in terms of Belgrade's progress on benchmark issues like capture of fugitive war criminals and signing the stabilization and association agreement to move toward the EU membership, the policies, thus far, at least, has not produced the desired results.
There is, as you know, criticism and support for Washington and Brussels continuing to, what some would suggest, airbrush the bad behavior of the Serb leaders. And should we be reassessing whether they deserve the support they've been getting before anymore is offered? Or how do you think -- is it better to just move forward with continuing to provide the kind of support that's been offered?
And I would add as an adjunct to that, staff tells me that Kostunica has just flat rejected the stabilization -- I may be mistaken in this -- and association agreement. And that may prompt elections. How does this all factor in?
MR. FRIED: The United States has a strategic interest in Serbia finding its way to Europe. And we have an interest in helping them. But we can do so only to the extent they want this, too. We see it as our responsibility to open all the doors for Serbia to achieve a European future, but it is Serbia's responsibility both to want to do this and take the necessary steps.
We hope that Serbia does not choose a path of self-isolation. That danger does exist. There is a vigorous debate about how to handle the issue of Serbia's cooperation with the war crimes tribunal and the apprehension of Branko Radujko and Radovan Karadzic. Serbia's actions have been more than nothing. They did turn over Milosevic himself to The Hague. They have not been fully satisfactory.
But the larger issues and one we will really have to face in the weeks and months ahead, and for which I don't have an answer, is what will Serbia choose to do. And it seems to me we are best positioned to make clear to the Serbian people that they do have a European future.
SEN. BIDEN: What's your instinct about where -- I could ask this to my colleague as well. What's your instinct about where the Serbian people are?
Kostunica has been -- some of his rhetoric hasn't been very far off of the rhetoric of the very person they just deposed.
But what do you think, if, in fact, the president got up the courage to actually -- maybe that's presumptuous to say -- to pull out of the government, his party, and there was an election. I know they're not very good at predicting elections here in the United States, let alone other countries, but what's the sense of -- talk to me about the debate you think that would ensue in Serbia.
MR. FRIED: Predictions are hard to make and dangerous to make.
SEN. BIDEN: Not about -- (inaudible) -- I just want to know --
MR. FRIED: I know --
(Cross talk)
MR. FRIED: I know. I will -- I know, I'll try -- I'll try to answer this straight, with that caveat. Boris Tadic just won re- election as president against an overtly nationalist opponent. Polling data in Serbia shows that most Serbs do not support Kosovo's independence, but they do not support Serbia's isolation. They support a European future for Kosovo.
Now, with all the caveats necessary, it's clear that there is a constituency in Serbia for a European future. We're not asking the Serbian people to stand up and say they agree with or support Kosovo's independence. We're asking them to support a European future for themselves and to work with Europe and with us toward that future. It is possible that with strong, determined leadership, that potential constituency could be mobilized.
SEN. BIDEN: Last question, because I only have two minutes left. One of the criticisms years ago, when I uttered the blasphemous suggestion that Kosovo should be independent, was that it is not capable of sustaining itself economically. Talk to the committee about what are the -- and outline for us a little bit about the economic prospects for Kosovo, including the raw materials that they possess, and why you think -- if you think they have the ability to sustain themselves and have a growing economy.
MR. FRIED: Kosovo possesses large coal reserves and other minerals, especially in the north. It has a young entrepreneurially- minded population. That said, there have been two things that have prevented Kosovo from moving ahead economically. One is the absence of clarity on status has retarded investment; and secondly, by all accounts, international administration has not been as successful as we had hoped. And the U.N. would acknowledge this.
Kosovo will require international support for some time. We have to help the Kosovars get modern institutions up and running; we have to help them create an investment climate; we have to help them slowly force our corruption, which is going to be a drain on the whole economy.
And finally, we have to start thinking of Kosovo on the path to Europe. Their future ultimately is going to lie within Europe, at which point their economic viability will no longer be a question. So we have short-term challenges, longer term prospects, and we're working hard at tackling some of these economic issues.
SEN. BIDEN: Thank you.
Senator Lugar.
SEN. LUGAR: Mr. Secretary, I wanted to pursue the chairman's last question in this way: I'm not aware that there has been, even in the midst of all the negotiations about the security of Kosovo and its independence, what might be called, in our parlance, a business plan for how in the world that group of people will have economic growth, quite apart from being able to sustain whatever level of income and economy they now have.
And I don't see it, thus far. And you pointed out correctly the reticence of an outside investment to come in while their status was undetermined, but now that it's determined, who are logical investors? Are European countries that are providing troops, that at least bring some security and physical stability, likewise prepared to make investments? And are people in the United States prepared to make investments in the country? And if so, in what would they invest?
In other words, what I'm trying to get at is, again and again people point out the difficulty is that, politically, independence has been declared, and we have welcomed that, but at the same time, an independent country really has to be able to make a living. And how that is to occur is not apparent.
Now, I couple that, again, with a very unhelpful suggestion by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov last week, that due to this instability, Russia might necessarily need to intervene in Kosovo, even militarily, due to lack of, or failure of NATO to make its mission successful. He doesn't give any timeframe for when that intervention might come about, or at what stage a judgment is made about the success or lack of success of NATO or European figures quite apart from ourselves. But it injects to -- another note.
Why, in your judgment, would Foreign Minister Lavrov be commenting on instability at this point -- suggesting Russian intervention -- not economic intervention, mind you, or investment, but military intervention to bring about stability? Can you make an overall comment about the business plan, and likewise, the Russian intent?
MR. FRIED: The donor's conference scheduled this -- the donor's conference scheduled this June is intended to do two things: One, is to bring to bear the major potential sources of support for Kosovo. It is also intended to focus the Kosovo government on a developmental mind-set.
I will be in Kosovo at the end of this week, and one of my messages will be that having achieved independence, they need to make it a success, and they need to not worry as much about the issue of status, which is resolved, and worry about the success of their independent country. And in that effort, they will have the active support of Europe and the United States.
Now to answer your business plan question, we know something about post-Communist development, so I'll say the following: I see two kinds of investments coming into Kosovo in the short and medium term. One, is from the Kosovar diaspora in Western Europe, which has some money and is already investing in the country, but will do so more now under better conditions.
So you'll see a lot of investment from below -- in gas stations, restaurants, hotels. But not -- that's where it starts. We know from post-Communist economic experience, that's not where it ends. The better entrepreneur starts small, they remain small. So then getting the manufacturing -- we've seen this before. And the ability of this bottom-up investment to make a difference depends on whether institutions work, whether there's an honest, decent banking system.
The second, is investment from above. And there I think you're going to see some multi-nationals interested in the energy-generating sector because Kosovo could make a fair amount of money exporting electricity. Its cold, there's issues of environmental, and anybody who's going to push in the window knows how, you know, what coal smoke does. So there a lot of issues, and this will require investment. But there is -- they're looking at the possibilities, not just the problems.
On Russia, what I cannot imagine that outside military intervention would be a -- by Russia would be a stabilizing factor, but you'd have to ask Minister Lavrov what he meant. If Russia is concerned about stability in Kosovo, they could play a very helpful role by urging Serbia not to engage in provocations in the north.
There is an irony, of course. Russia has denounced the Ahtisaari plan. It is not as well known that Russian diplomats played a very constructive role in helping put together some of its best provisions to protect the Serbs. They ought to take pride in some of their handiwork, but, again, that's a question for them.
We have to be clear, no evidence that Russia is actually contemplating military intervention. Given the fact that NATO has 15,000 troops on the grounds, including near, or at the borders, in all parts of Kosovo, I find that unlikely.
SEN. LUGAR: In the past month, Russia has now made an agreement -- or the Gazprom specifically -- to provide natural gas to Serbia. And as I read the accounts, taken control maybe of 50 percent of the pipelines.
What is the energy source -- you mentioned coal in Kosovo -- but to what extent are Kosovars vulnerable to energy cutoffs and how does the new agreement with Gazprom and Serbia affect that?
MR. FRIED: We actually studied this in the run up to the declaration of independence. Kosovo has indigenous sources of energy. It has some generating power -- both coal-fired and hydro. It can develop more. It also has potential sources of electricity from some of its neighbors like Macedonia.
It is not as easy as it might appear for Serbia to simply turn off the electricity. After all, the Kosovo Serbs would also suffer.
There are -- the Kosovo economy does have vulnerabilities, but it also has a certain tough resilience. These people are used to living under very, very difficult conditions. There is a great deal of work to be done and in the months and even years ahead, we will have to be involved helping them.
SEN. LUGAR: Thank you very much.
SEN. BIDEN: Thank you very much.
Senator Cardin.
SEN. BENJAMIN CARDIN (D-MD): Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Secretary Fried, thank you very much for your testimony and your keeping us informed as to what's happening in Kosovo.
Ten days ago I was in Europe attending the OSCE parliamentary assembly and Kosovo was our main subject. I support the U.S. decision, but I must tell you, I think we need to do a better job in explaining our reasonings for our support of Kosovo's independence and the background.
I'll start first with the point that you just mentioned, and that is our support for the Ahtisaari plan. It's not just independence of Kosovo -- it's under very unusual conditions: strong support for the rights of the minority communities and a supervised independence, including, I hope, the continuation of the OSCE mission in Kosovo.
So I just really want to give you a moment just to point out that our support for independence of Kosovo is truly unique as it relates to the protection of minority communities. And you mentioned the Russian diplomats had a major role to make sure that the municipalities that are majority Serb are controlled by the Serbs, that decisions affecting minority communities can only be made with the consent of -- effective consent of minority communities -- that there's unusual support for protection of all the people of Kosovo.
MR. FRIED: Senator, you accurately describe many of the Ahtisaari plan provisions. It was an extremely forward-leaning document. It provides what, to my knowledge, are the most extensive protections for a minority community in Europe -- perhaps in the world. And most astonishingly, it was accepted in full by the Kosovo authorities and they are busy implementing it. They're passing laws and they have said that this is one of their highest priorities.
So it is ironic that Serbia has ignored these provisions and doesn't seem to be taking actions to exercise its own rights under the Ahtisaari plan. But we shall see what happens in the future.
With respect to European opinion, this has been hard for many European countries -- especially those who have had in the past separatist issues of their own. In our view, Kosovo is not a precedent and we will not -- we will not accept arguments --
SEN. CARDIN: And on that point I think we need to do a better job in pointing that out internationally. It's another area that I agree with your assessment, but I think we could do a better job in making it clear that this is not a precedent for any other condition or any other area in the world.
Kosovo's truly unique in its history, the NATO mission, the U.N. administration; the process went through in the Ahtisaari plan. There are so many unique aspects to Kosovo -- the ethnic cleansing, the tragedies to a large part of the population. And I think we need to make sure that we emphasize that to counter the arguments of, I think, countries that are looking at this not because they're concerned about precedent, because they just don't support Kosovo's independence.
MR. FRIED: I agree with you. I look forward to making those points.
SEN. CARDIN: Let me mention one other issue of major concern to me, and that is the impact -- this is in your written statement -- on Bosnia.
We've invested so much in Bosnia. I know that we support the integration of Bosnia into Europe. I'm concerned that as we look at Serbia and making priority of Serbia's integration into Europe -- knowing full well that Serbia's yet to cooperate with the war crimes tribunal in the manner that we expect -- and know the history of Bosnia -- particularly the Muslim population -- the concern that they could be once more abandoned by Europe. As we move forward in this process, I would just like to make sure that this is a major part of our strategy in Kosovo that we don't lose sight of Bosnia and its integration into Europe.
MR. FRIED: Senator, I've been in Bosnia a couple of times over the past years. You are certainly right that we can't lose sight of Bosnia's future integration in Europe, nor of the internal political strains between the two constituent elements -- the Republika Srpska and the Croat-Bosniak Federation.
We have made clear to all of the leaders of Bosnia -- all of the constituent communities -- that we want to see Bosnia realize a European future for itself. And it can do so only if it improves its institutions and doesn't overturn them. There are voices in Bosnia on both sides who speak more radically of overturning Dayton. We don't support that. We support Bosnia moving ahead, improving its governance and joining Europe.
But you're right to point out that Bosnia requires our attention. Before Kosovo independence, we were in contact with Bosnian leaders so they -- of all communities -- to make sure they understood what was happening. We'll have to continue to work with them.
SEN. CARDIN: And I agree with what you just said. I think we have to be very strong in making sure that Bosnia's reform commitments are adhered to, carried out in advance and they still have a way to go and we need to make sure that that continues.
My concern is I find Europe holds a different standard for Muslim-majority countries than it does others. And it concerns me that we aren't more vocal in making it clear that there should be a -- that the same standards apply and a country should not be given a priority or held back because of its ethnic population.
MR. FRIED: I agree with that entirely and we have -- we happily have a number of countries in the Balkans with large Muslim populations. I was with President Bush in Albania last summer and I can attest to the overwhelming pro-American sentiment in that country, which is -- they've looked at us as a friend since Woodrow Wilson.
The Kosovar -- the Kosovar-Albanian community looks at the United States as having kept its word throughout both the previous administration and this one. These are countries that are extraordinarily infertile ground for extremism to penetrate.
SEN. CARDIN: Thank you.
Mr. Chairman, I would ask my entire statement be made part of the record.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
SEN. BIDEN: (Off mike.)
SEN. VOINOVICH: We have talked in the past about the commitment that Europe and the United States has made to the U.N. mission in Kosovo. And I'd like you to comment on the status of the UNMIK people in Kosovo. It's my understanding that the U.N. mission in Kosovo, that those people are going to be withdrawn.
Senator Cardin indicated that the OSCE is involved. I think they have the most people in Kosovo of any place in the world, I think over a thousand people. It's my understanding that because of Russia that the OSCE is going to terminate that commitment to Kosovo. And I'd like to know what's being done to back-fill or fill in those people that we're going to be losing in Kosovo.
Second, I'd like you to comment on the EU commitment to the Ahtisaari plan. Who's going to really take the leadership? It's my understanding, at least from the grapevine, that Solana is not that enthusiastic about it, wants somebody else to do it. And you're going to have this international civilian office, and then you're going to have the international steering group. And then the plan calls for, in two years, that they're going to report back on how things are going.
And I think most people would agree that UNMIK's involvement -- U.N. Mission in Kosovo -- has been uneven, to say it the most complimentary way as possible, in terms of the leadership that the European Union, the European leaders that we've had there. One of them -- I had to call on the floor of the United States Senate for his resignation because of the terrible job that he was doing and seeing that sometimes they sent people there as sort of a sinecure. And how serious are the Europeans in terms of the commitment that they're going to have to make to guarantee that this is going to be successful?
MR. FRIED: I think the Europeans are now very serious. I think they realize that Kosovo is going to be principally a European responsibility, though with the United States.
There are almost 16,000 NATO troops in Kosovo. Ninety percent of them are European. All of the NATO allies except Iceland, that doesn't have a military, are present. You are correct that UNMIK will be drawing down, but it will not leave Kosovo entirely. It will remain there. The EU mission is ramping up. It'll have about 2,000 people there. The U.S. will support that mission. We're sending about 80 police and some prosecutors and judges. But most of the personnel, the overwhelming majority of the personnel, will be European.
Peter Feith, a Dutch diplomat, will be double-hatted. He'll be the head of the International Civilian Office, with a mandate to oversee the Ahtisaari plan. He will be double-hatted also the head of the EU mission. The EU has pledged several hundred million dollars of assistance for Kosovo, so they're putting a reasonable amount of money in this. The United States -- and I anticipate the United States will fund about 25 percent of the international costs. And Congress has appropriated now about $350 million of assistance for Kosovo; Europe quite a bit more, as I said.
I'm happy to report that although we had feared the OSCE would be forced out of Kosovo, that's no longer certain. I had expected the Russians might veto it, but now the mission has been extended for a time. We will see how this develops. However, Senator, to answer your question, if the OSCE is forced out, we believe that the EU will pick up many of the crucial functions, because the OSCE has done some good work.
SEN. VOINOVICH: And at the same time, we pick up 25 percent of the cost.
MR. FRIED: Well, the U.S. is going to pay a minority of the costs no matter where the mission is located. The Europeans will, as I said, pick up about three-quarters of it.
SEN. VOINOVICH: Well, I remember after the war was over that we created a stability pact. There were significant promises made by the Europeans to fund various projects in the region. And I'll never forget visiting Brussels -- and I won't mention the name of the individual that I talked with saying to me, "Well, we said that, but we really weren't sincere about it."
The question I have is, are the Europeans -- are they going to really actually come up with the money and the commitment here to get the job done? Because if you look back and see what the EU has done in other instances, they just haven't been forthcoming. They talk a good game, but when you -- their actions don't speak as loud as their words.
MR. FRIED: I think the Europeans understand that Kosovo's success will be a European success. And if Kosovo is a generator of problems, Europe will suffer disproportionately. So on that basis, I have confidence that Europe will invest in Kosovo. Now, that being said, trust but verify, and we will keep at this, working with our European friends.
SEN. VOINOVICH: Well, from my perspective, I don't want to wait for two years to find out if things are going the right way. And I would respectfully ask you to periodically report back to me and, frankly, to members of this committee about what our perspective is on whether or not they're doing what they say they're going to do and whether or not the Kosovo government is doing what they have promised to do, because I know from past experiences that we're going to be getting anecdotal stuff coming out of Kosovo by various groups here in the United States, one way or the other. And we need to make darn sure that we know what the facts are there so that they can be responded to rather than letting rumors circulate about what's really going on over there.
MR. FRIED: Senator, I look forward to working with you, with this committee and other members to do exactly what you said -- to give periodic briefings at your request about the situation, both with respect to the performance of the Kosovo government, our work with our European allies, and how the Serbian community is faring; also how they are behaving, especially in the north, because Serbia's actions may continue to be a problem. But I look forward to working with you. We cannot simply assume that Kosovo is on auto-pilot and walk away. This is going to take high-level sustained attention to the end of this administration and into the next.
SEN. BIDEN: Thank you very much.
Senator Boxer.
SEN. BARBARA BOXER (D-CA): Thanks, Mr. Chairman
Well, I certainly agree with your comments. I support this independence, as I think most of us do, or, if not all of us. But I wanted to note that since this occurred without explicit U.N. Security Council approval, the opponents are saying it's not legal.
As such, do you believe it's important that Kosovo's independence be recognized by a large number of countries? On February 27th, the Serbian foreign minister wrote in The New York Times that, quote, "the number of countries that will recognize an independent Kosovo will plateau at around 40, leaving it unrecognized by a vast majority of the close to 200 members of the United Nations."
Now, I understand that less than two dozen countries have recognized Kosovo's independence thus far. Do you have a prediction of how many countries will, in fact, recognize an independent Kosovo? And do you think this is a very important indicator as to the future?
MR. FRIED: We have now, I believe, 22 countries that have recognized Kosovo. Two-thirds of the European Union countries have already recognized, including most of the larger ones. I think countries outside of Europe have looked to Europe to take the lead in recognition, which is actually appropriate. I think other recognitions will come in.
The fact is it would have been preferable to have this done through the Security Council, which is why we tried last summer, through repeated compromise resolutions, and it became very clear that Russia would exercise its veto. So we had to proceed. But for the record, it's quite clear that Security Council action would have been the best way forward. It was a hard decision for the Europeans to move ahead, but they, like we, faced -- had to face a reality that the status quo was not sustainable, return to the past was impossible. We had to move forward and we did so with our European allies.
SEN. BOXER: Right, right.
I think you're missing my question. I support that. I'm asking, do you have a prediction of how many countries will in fact recognize an independent Kosovo and do you think that number is important going forward?
MR. FRIED: I think that -- to be plain, I think the most crucial number is how many European countries -- in the first place is how many European countries recognize and there we have the vast majority. We will have -- we're still getting more. Countries outside of Europe -- very good to have. We're working at that diplomatically. We have a number of recognitions outside of Europe. But it is less crucial. These will come in time. I don't care to have a number -- you know, the arguments of Foreign Minister Jeremic notwithstanding, there are very few people who believe that -- in fact, no one outside of Serbs and Russians who believe that Kosovo could ever by ruled by Belgrade again.
SEN. BOXER: Okay.
Well, I think that's a good answer. So your answer is basically the regional support is what's really key in Europe. That's key as opposed to the number of countries. Okay.
Now I think this is where Senator Voinovich was going with his question. In your opening statement, you state that EU and member states will provide roughly 50 percent of the assistance that Kosovo needs over the first three to four years. How much finding will the EU and member states need to pledge in -- if you could in dollars in order to make the 50 percent
