|
Press Releases | |
|---|---|
U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION High Gasoline Demand, Record Low Prices Likely This Summer
In its annual preview of the summer driving season released today by Secretary of Energy Federico Peña, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that American motorists this summer are expected to generate the sharpest annual increases in highway travel and gasoline demand in a decade. Higher-than-average income growth, low prices and rising consumer confidence are setting the stage for an expected 3.8-percent surge in highway travel and an increase of 2.8 percent in gasoline demand, compared to 1997, for the period from April to September. That would bring summer travel on U.S. highways to about 1.37 trillion miles, and gasoline use to nearly 65 billion gallons. In the summer of 1980, these figures were 0.79 trillion miles and 51 billion gallons. According to EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, average retail prices (all grades and services) for the second and third quarters of 1998 are expected to be $1.20 per gallon - that equates to an average of about $1.10 for unleaded regular. The price was about a dime higher last summer. Lower crude oil prices this year explain the difference. As a consequence of this year’s price drop, the U.S. is likely to experience this year the lowest (inflation-adjusted) prices ever for a driving season. Reasons that crude oil and gasoline prices are expected to remain at low levels include:
Electricity Growth Should Move to a Higher Level this Year Electricity demand growth is expected to move to the more typical level of 2.4 percent this year after posting only a 0.8 percent advance in 1997. Last year both heating and cooling demand were down from 1996. While demand so far this year has been weak due to low winter heating requirements, spring and summer demand should make up for it, assuming normal temperatures. Summer (second and third quarter) demand could average about 3.5 percent higher than 1997. Warm Weather, Low Prices Lead to Consumer Savings Lower heating demand, lower heating fuel prices, and cheaper gasoline reduced first-quarter household energy expenditures by an estimated $5.9 billion, or about $52 for a typical household. Base-case projections suggest an overall savings in 1998 of $12 billion, or $105 per household. The Short-Term Energy Outlook is published quarterly in January, April, July, and October. Monthly updates are now being released on EIA's Internet Web Site to meet the public's demand for more timely energy data and forecasts. Users can view and download the quarterly forecast analysis, monthly updates, and the forecasting model by going to the EIA Home Page at http://www.eia.doe.gov and selecting "Forecasts" from the menu. The Internet address for direct access to the Outlook is: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. Printed copies of Short-Term Energy Outlook, Second Quarter 1998 will be available later this month from the U.S. Government Printing Office, 202/512-1800 or through EIA's National Energy Information Center 202/586-8800.
EIA Program Contact: David Costello, (202) 586-1468 EIA-98-08 Contact:
|