|
Press Releases | |
|---|---|
U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION Gasoline Supply/Demand Balance to be Tight This Summer Retail gasoline prices (regular grade) are expected to average $1.46 per gallon this summer, 25 percent higher than last summer's average of $1.17 per gallon, according to forecasts released today in the April Short-Term Energy Outlook. Monthly average prices are expected to reach a peak of $1.52 per gallon in April and decline steadily to $1.39 per gallon by September due to the impact of increases in worldwide crude oil production. Gasoline demand this summer (April to October) is projected to average 8.72 million barrels per day, up 130,000 barrels per day, or 1.5 percent, from last summer. While that represents a new record for summer season demand, this year's growth is well below the average seen in the previous 5 years. U.S. motor gasoline inventories are currently low by historical standards. Total beginning-of-season (April 1) stocks are sharply below last year's levels and are near the low end of the normal range. Because of the low stock levels, the U.S. gasoline market faces unusually high risks of sharp price runups this spring and summer, particularly if significant refinery problems are encountered. However, assuming no problems in ramping up U.S. gasoline production, expected increases in world oil production this summer should be sufficient to prevent increases in average retail gasoline prices from their currently high levels. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), world oil prices should begin a gradual decline as increased oil production from OPEC enters the world oil market. Based on our assessment of world oil supply and demand, the average cost per barrel of crude oil imported into the U.S. and delivered to U.S. refiners (the benchmark price used in this forecast) is expected to decline from an estimate of $26.75 per barrel in February and March 2000 to about $25 per barrel by June 2000 and to $23.50 per barrel by the end of 2000. The price is expected to continue to decline to about $21.50 by the end of 2001. Other highlights for the Short-Term Energy Outlook include: * This forecast assumes that OPEC 9 (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries excluding Iraq and Iran) crude oil production will be 21.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2000, 0.7 million barrels per day above first quarter production levels. If Iran is included (OPEC 10), the increase in the second quarter is expected to be 0.9 million barrels per day. Continued increases are expected throughout the rest of 2000 and 2001. * Net imports of finished motor gasoline are projected to average 295,000 barrels per day, down from 327,000 barrels per day last summer. This reflects the lower availability of supplies from Europe and uncertainties about foreign refiners' ability to meet Phase II reformulated gasoline specifications. * Total domestic output (refinery and field production) is projected to average 8.40 million barrels per day during the summer months, up 190,000 barrels per day from last summer. Refineries will be expected to meet not only the 130,000 barrels-per-day increase in demand but also to accommodate the reduced availability from stocks and net imports. As a result, refinery utilization rates for the summer are projected to average 96.8 percent, up from 94.3 percent last summer. * Natural gas demand is expected to increase by 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, to 22.17 trillion cubic feet in 2000 and 23.08 trillion cubic feet in 2001. These increases follow the less than 1 percent growth seen in 1999, when oil prices remained reasonably competitive with gas in electric power and industrial production, and when strong nuclear power and hydroelectric power increases backed out gas use in the electric power industry. * Assuming normal weather for the remainder of the forecast, in 2000, the outlook for total electricity demand is growth of 2.0 percent. In 2001, electricity demand is expected to grow by an additional 2.0 percent. This is on track with average electricity growth between 1990 and 1998, which averaged about 2.0 percent per year. The Short-Term Energy Outlook is published monthly on EIA's Internet Web Site to meet the public's demand for more timely energy data and forecasts. Users can view and download the forecast analysis, tables and charts by going to the EIA Home Page at http://www.eia.doe.gov and selecting "Forecasts" from the menu. The Internet address for direct access to the Outlook is: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub. In addition to the Internet releases, the Short-Term Energy Outlook is published in printed form in April and October. Printed copies of the Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2000 will be available later this month from the U.S. Government Printing Office, 202/512-1800, or through EIA's National Energy Information Center at 202/586-8800.
EIA Program Contact: David Costello, 202/586-1468 EIA-2000-07 Contact:
|