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U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
Carbon Emissions Continue to Rise through 2020; Although the growth in carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in the United States slowed in 1998, continuing growth in energy demand is projected to lead to rising emissions through 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which today released the reference case forecasts of its Annual Energy Outlook 2000. U.S. carbon emissions are projected to increase 33 percent over 1990 levels by 2010 and 47 percent by 2020, reaching 1,979 million metric tons in 2020, compared with 1,345 million metric tons in 1990 (Figure 1). The projections assume current laws and regulations and so do not include any new policies or programs that might be undertaken to reduce emissions. Through 2020, growing energy demand is mostly satisfied by fossil fuels, as nuclear electricity generation declines and the use of renewable energy sources grows slowly. Although world oil prices have risen significantly in 1999, price increases are expected to moderate in the longer-term period. In 2020, the world oil price reaches $22.04 a barrel (1998 dollars), compared to $12.10 a barrel in 1998 (Figure 2). Technology improvements in the production of oil are expected to moderate further price increases even as world oil demand grows. Other forecast highlights include: * As a result of declining domestic crude oil production and rising oil demand, net oil imports continue to increase, providing 64 percent of U.S. oil consumption in 2020, up from 52 percent in 1998. Growth in petroleum demand is led by transportation, as continued efficiency improvements in vehicles and aircraft are more than offset by growing travel demand. * Average retail electricity prices are projected to decline from 6.7 cents per kilowatthour in 1998 to 5.8 cents per kilowatthour in 2020 (1998 dollars) because of increasing competition in the electricity industry and declining coal prices due to improved productivity in coal mining and growing production from lower-cost mines in the West. * Coal remains the primary fuel for electricity generation, though its share declines slightly by 2020 because electricity industry restructuring favors the less capital-intensive, more efficient natural gas generation technologies. * Nuclear generation declines 37 percent by 2020, as some existing plants retire; however, the number of retirements is lower than in earlier projections due to a reevaluation of the capital costs to build replacement fossil-fuel capacity. * Natural gas wellhead prices are projected to increase at an average rate of 1.7 percent a year through 2020, from $1.96 per thousand cubic feet in 1998 to $2.81 in 2020 (1998 dollars). Technological improvements in exploration and production moderate the growth in prices as demand, particularly for electricity generation, increases rapidly. Reference case projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 and an overview of the results can be accessed on EIA's Internet site at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/earlyrelease/index.html. Copies are also available through EIA's National Energy Information Center, Forrestal Building, Washington, DC 20585, 202/586-8800. The full report, including projections with differing assumptions on the price of oil, the rate of economic growth, and the introduction of new technologies, will be released on December 17, 1999, along with regional projections. A report on the major assumptions underlying the projections will be released by January 7, 2000.
EIA Program Contact: Mary J. Hutzler, 202/586-2222 EIA Press Contact: National Energy Information Center, 202/586-8800, infoctr@eia.doe.gov EIA-99-26 Contact:
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