| Table 3. Estimation Results for National and Sub-PAD District Regions | ||||||||||||||
| Dependent Variable: D(RETUS) | Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1X) | Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1Y) | Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1Z) | Dependent Variable: D(RETCA) | ||||||||||
| Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 | Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 | Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 | Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 | Sample: 5/29/2000 to 4/30/2001 | ||||||||||
| 11/05/2001 to 6/24/2002 | ||||||||||||||
| Variable | Coefficient | Variable | Coefficient | Variable | Coefficient | Variable | Coefficient | Variable | Coefficient | |||||
| C | 0.005 | C | -0.001 | C | 0.017 | C | -0.013 | C | 0.013 | |||||
| (0.114) | (0.101) | (0.100) | (0.112) | (0.215) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTUS(-1) | 0.437*** | DSPOTPAD1X(-1) | 0.210*** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-1) | 0.249*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-1) | 0.346*** | DSPOTCA(-1) | 0.241*** | |||||
| (0.026) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.026) | (0.031) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTUS(-2) | 0.223*** | DSPOTPAD1X(-2) | 0.208*** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-2) | 0.202*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-2) | 0.257*** | DSPOTCA(-2) | 0.137*** | |||||
| (0.027) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.026) | (0.033) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTUS(-3) | 0.110*** | DSPOTPAD1X(-3) | 0.151*** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-3) | 0.163*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-3) | 0.187*** | DSPOTCA(-3) | 0.147*** | |||||
| (0.027) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.026) | (0.034) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTUS(-4) | 0.063** | DSPOTPAD1X(-4) | 0.102*** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-4) | 0.102*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-4) | 0.098*** | DSPOTCA(-4) | 0.137*** | |||||
| (0.026) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.026) | (0.033) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTUS(-5) | 0.089*** | DSPOTPAD1X(-5) | 0.124*** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-5) | 0.101*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-5) | 0.100*** | DSPOTCA(-5) | 0.111*** | |||||
| (0.027) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.026) | (0.033) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTUS(-6) | 0.058** | DSPOTPAD1X(-6) | 0.075*** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-6) | 0.077*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-6) | 0.046* | DSPOTCA(-6) | 0.061** | |||||
| (0.027) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.026) | (0.030) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTUS(-7) | 0.048* | DSPOTPAD1X(-7) | 0.082*** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-7) | 0.066*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-7) | 0.061** | DSPOTCA(-7) | 0.083*** | |||||
| (0.026) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.026) | (0.029) | ||||||||||
| DSPOTPAD1X(-8) | 0.048** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-8) | 0.060*** | DSPOTPAD1Z(-8) | 0.020 | |||||||||
| (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.026) | ||||||||||||
| DSPOTPAD1X(-9) | 0.053** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-9) | 0.059** | |||||||||||
| (0.023) | (0.023) | |||||||||||||
| DSPOTPAD1X(-10) | 0.045** | DSPOTPAD1Y(-10) | 0.041* | |||||||||||
| (0.023) | (0.023) | |||||||||||||
| DSPOTPAD1X(-11) | 0.038* | |||||||||||||
| (0.023) | ||||||||||||||
| Sum of Spot Lags | 1.029 | Sum of Spot Lags | 1.137 | Sum of Spot Lags | 1.120 | Sum of Spot Lags | 1.115 | Sum of Spot Lags | 0.916 | |||||
| Adj. R^2 | 0.836 | Adj. R^2 | 0.751 | Adj. R^2 | 0.757 | Adj. R^2 | 0.805 | Adj. R^2 | 0.640 | |||||
| S.E. Regression | 1.297 | S.E. Regression | 1.148 | S.E. Regression | 1.139 | S.E. Regression | 1.280 | S.E. Regression | 1.931 | |||||
| AIC | 3.418133 | AIC | 3.200996 | AIC | 3.178143 | AIC | 3.397565 | AIC | 4.245652 | |||||
| F-statistic | 94.9 | F-statistic | 36.4 | F-statistic | 41.1 | F-statistic | 67.8 | F-statistic | 21.8 | |||||
| D.W. statistic | 2.04 | D.W. statistic | 1.00 | D.W. statistic | 1.02 | D.W. statistic | 1.80 | D.W. statistic | 1.12 | |||||
| Source: EIA calculations. | ||||||||||||||
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