The Metropolitan
Transportation Plan (MTP) is updated every three years. The SACOG Board adopted the most recent MTP
on July 18, 2002.
The Metropolitan
Transportation Improvement Program (MTIP) is updated every two years. The SACOG
Board adopted the most recent MTIP on July 18, 2002.
The State
Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Sacramento federal ozone nonattainment area
was last updated in 1994. The
Sacramento region is currently discussing the need for an update to the 1994
SIP due to conformity implications. The
Sacramento region faces a conformity "lockdown" after December 31,
2002. A conformity "lockdown"
is a term coined by SACOG staff and means that we will be unable to make any changes,
additions, or deletions to non-exempt projects in either the MTP or MTIP until
a new SIP is approved by the EPA with new conformity budgets. If a new SIP is not approved by July 2005,
the SACOG region will lapse conformity until a new SIP is approved and we can
make a positive conformity determination.
Coordinating SIP
updates and the conformity process has been difficult at times. This is because the Sacramento federal ozone
nonattainment area covers five air districts, each with its own Board of
Directors. It is sometimes difficult to get all five air districts together to
discuss issues of mutual interest.
There is a real concern by some air districts that they do not want
conformity to drive their air quality programs (i.e., a SIP update).
In California we
use an emissions model called EMFAC, but the same issues that you raise about
MOBILE5 versus MOBILE 6 apply to EMFAC7F/7G versus EMFAC 2001. The difference between EMFAC7F, which was
used to prepare Sacramento's 1994 SIP, and the new EMFAC2001 emissions model is
dramatic. If the Sacramento region were
required to use EMFAC2001 when preparing conformity determinations the region
would fail. This is because EMFAC 2001
is projecting far greater on-road mobile source emissions than EMFAC7F did for
the 1994 SIP and out years.
The region is
currently discussing the need for a new SIP that would incorporate the use of
EMFAC 2001. It has not been decided if
the region will update its SIP before 2005, which is when the current plan projects
that the Sacramento region will attain the federal 1-hour ozone standard. There is considerable discussion occurring
over whether the region will attain the standard in 2005 and whether the region
should be embarking on a new SIP. We
are anticipating that the requirement to use the EMFAC 2001, or its successor,
will occur before our mandated attainment date of 2005. We anticipate that the 2-year grace period
on EMFAC 2001 will start sometime early next year (Feb/March 2003). This would mean that all nonattainemnt
areas in California will have to use EMFAC 2001 to prepare conformity
determinations once the two-year grace period is up (Feb/Mar 2005). Unless the Sacramento region has a new SIP in
place at that time, we will be unable to make a positive conformity determination
and the region will go into a conformity lapse for an unknown period of time.
It is unknown
whether or not the new 8-hour NAAQS will lead to an increase or decrease in our
vehicle emissions budget. Our best
guess would be that it would lead to higher budgets initially (i.e., 2005). It is
also unclear whether or not the SACOG region would be able to pass future
conformity tests with these new budgets.
The SACOG region
is currently implementing the Sacramento Emergency
Clean Air and
Transportation (SECAT) program. The
SECAT program was created as a way to help truck owners and fleet operators
reduce their vehicles' emissions in a business-friendly manner. There are two options available to truck owners:
diesel engine retrofits or replacement of their older truck with a
cleaner-burning newer truck.
The goal of the
SECAT program is to reduce NOx emissions from heavy-duty vehicles by two tons
per day by 2002 and a total of three tons per day by 2005 within the Sacramento
federal 1-hour ozone nonattainment area. The current program is funded with $70
million in state and local funds. If
this program were to be continued after the monies are expended, additional NOx
emissions reductions could be achieved.
We do not believe it would be sufficient to make up the projected
increase in on-road emissions associated with EMFAC 2001.
Role of
Transportation Control Measures (TCMs)
TCMs do not play
a big role in helping the Sacramento region achieve attainment of the ozone
standard. The 1994 SIP calls for
reductions of
26 tons per day
of NOX and 35 tons per day of ROG emissions from proposed new measures. The
1994 SIP shows a 1-ton reduction in both ROG and NOX from "TCMs/Land
Use" measures. These measures have
never been defined. This 1 ton
represents approximately 4% of the NOx reductions needed and approximately 3%
of the ROG reductions needed to achieve attainment.
The SACOG region
does not take any credit for CMAQ projects in its conformity determinations. This is because CMAQ projects are difficult to
quantify.
The SACOG region
has not experienced a conformity lapse within the last couple of years. The SACOG region, however, intentionally let
conformity lapse several years ago because the schedule for updating the MTP
and conformity didn't mesh and the SACOG Board of Directors did not want to
accelerate the MTP development for conformity reasons. The
SACOG region
lapsed for several months and it had no impact on project deliveries.
The SACOG region
is facing a lapse in October 2004 that could last quite a while, depending on
when a new SIP is approved. As indicate
above, the SACOG region is currently discussing the need for a new SIP and,
depending on the outcome of those discussions, the region could face a
conformity lapse that could last anywhere from several months to several years.
The March 1999
U.S. Court of appeals decision had no effect on SACOG's transportation
investments.
The conformity
analysis has not helped the motor vehicle emissions inventory for SIPs because
there has not been a SIP update since 1994.
The motor
vehicle emissions inventory is prepared by ARB. We have not done a systematic analysis of changes in each update
of the inventory.
Yes it has. The transportation demand models have met or
exceeded the guidelines in the CAAA and include full feedback from traffic assignments
to trip generation and all travel modes including walking and bicycling.
The travel model
has been updated several times since 1994.
The base year of the model has changed from 1990 to 1994 to 1997 to
2000. Each update has shown at least
the same and generally better validation of the models traffic assignment to
actual traffic counts. We have a database
of 2000+ traffic counts for each calibration year.
If you define
"induced traffic" as the traveler's response to changes in
congestion, the model we use has accessibility measures in auto ownership, trip
generation, trip distribution, and mode choice steps.
The inclusion of the accessibility measures means that as congestion increases over time, or given higher congestion levels in one area of the model area versus another, auto travel (both trip and VMT) are reduced. The amount of reduction is generally small, but measurable in the order of a few percentage points.