Coal News and
Markets
Week of September 28,
2003
Coal
Prices and Earnings
(updated October 1)
The average spot prices for reported coal purchases leveled off
last week in the Powder River Basin (PRB) low-sulfur markets.
A 15-cent decrease brought the spot price to $7.10 per short ton
for the 8,800 average-Btu product that EIA monitors (see below).
Overall, spot prices have currently stalled and activity has slowed.
The Central Appalachia (CAP) compliance coal tracked by EIA continued
to trade at $35.80. Similar spot market price increases were reported
for other compliance and near-compliance CAP coals. In Northern
Appalachia (NAP), Illinois Basin (ILB), and Uinta Basin (UIB),
the spot coal prices tracked by EIA for prompt quarter delivery,
were unchanged (Coal Outlook, September 22, p 2). The latest CAP
price is 25 percent, or $11.84, below the 2001 peak price of $47.64
per ton. The NAP price is 31 percent, or $12.15 per ton, below
the 2001 peak. ILB prices and UIB prices are 25 and 23 percent
lower, respectively, than this time 2 years ago, and PRB prices,
at $7.25 per short ton, now stand 43 percent below the peak average
price of $12.75 reached in May 2001.
![](wklyspot030928.gif)
Spot prices
of low-sulfur CAP coals have risen steadily since the week ended
June 21, 2002, when the EIA-indexed coal sold briefly for a
low $26.50 per short ton. That rise in CAP coal prices coincides
with a dawning recognition among CAP coal buyers that recent
supply problems may persist, at least temporarily. In addition
to depletion of individual reserve blocks and the geologic problems
that develop when mines approach the limits of minable coal,
some new contracting is stymied by the five largely CAP coal
companies in bankruptcy proceedings and as American Electric
Power’s coal properties—chiefly assets acquired from bankrupt
Quaker Coal Co. in 2001—are still up for sale after proving
to be a drain on earnings (Coal Age, “Official: AEP Coal on
Block,” June 2003). Those six companies in 2002 produced 71.3
million short tons (mmst) an amount equivalent to 28.7 percent
of CAP production that year (“Survivability? Thrivability!”
presentation by Jonathan Barr, Arch Coal, Inc., at
Platts Coal Marketing Days, September 22-23).
The CAP price is now $0.80 above the $35.00-per-short-ton minimum
f.o.b. mine price that major coal producers earlier this year
called essential for new contract sales and to rationalize reopening
of idled mines. Although the spot prices are up, producers report
that buyers have been reluctant to contract for term coal. Many
more solicitations have been issued, reportedly, than have been
completed as contracts (Coal Daily, September 15, pp 5-6). Producers
now expect to see some additional term coal contracts this year
but expect other buyers, betting on a their current stocks and
a mild winter, to put off new commitments to early 2004.
In addition to the problems with bankruptcies, reserve depletion,
and geologic problems, CAP producers have been contending with
longwall moves and permitting and litigation delays for new
mines. PRB spot prices have risen more slowly than CAP prices,
but the PRB producers were able to increase output if and when
demand warrants and prices are right. Because of lower incremental
mining costs, recent PRB spot prices, at $5.70 per ton in July
(and at $7.25 to $7.10 in the past 2 weeks) needed only to rise
by $0.50 or $1.00 to significantly improve profits for PRB producers.
On the other hand, even if higher PRB prices indicate growing
buyer interest in securing or supplementing this winter’s supplies,
additional coal may not be easily had. As one PRB producer told
U.S. Coal Review (September 22, p. 7), “We’ve done everything
we can,” including “some pre-shipping in the first half,” but
“there’s no more room to put more railcars in there.” Further,
if the past is a guide, further spot and contract demand for
PRB coal in Eastern markets may develop only after prices for
CAP coal have become entrenched at levels buyers consider restrictive.
In the over-the-counter
(OTC) coal markets, pricing has been unusually bullish. OTC
transactions are arranged quickly, via brokers, and include
both deals that will close in the short term with physical coal
delivery, and financial deals used to hedge against future price
changes. Although currently representing less than half as much
volume as spot coal sales, the OTC market tends to react rapidly
to perceived changes in future prices or availability. Sometimes
the OTC prices anticipate changes in spot and, eventually, term
coal contracts, but traders can be wrong in regard to the magnitude
or the timing of price changes, or both, or even in regard to
the direction.
Coal supply
transactions on the NYMEX
have
stagnated with virtually no trades settled since June 24. After
April 4, 2003, when NYMEX moved its coal futures trading from
open outcry to it electronic trading platform, no significant
changes occurred in either trade volumes or prices. Near-month
settlement prices rose gradually from $28.00 per short ton to
$32.20, where they remained during the first 3 weeks in June—a
pattern similar to activity earlier this year. Volumes from
April 4 through June 24 averaged between 100 and 300 transactions
per week. Trade volumes have been at zero every day since July
2 for the near month as well as for downstream contract dates.
Near-month settling prices rose sharply, however, from $33.75
per short ton on August 21 to $37.25 on September 2, before
subsiding. The latest final price was $36.10 per short ton,
with no transactions.
Coal
Production (updated October 3)
Estimated
coal production for the week ended September 27 was 21.2 million
short tons (mmst). This was 0.3 mmst, or 1.3 percent lower than
in the previous week and 3.6 percent below the comparable week
in 2002. Year to date U.S. coal production, which incorporates
both first and second quarter production data from the Mine
Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is estimated at 793.6
mmst, or 2.4 percent behind the corresponding total for 2002.
West of the Mississippi, 2003 production is behind 2002 by 0.5
percent, while east of the river it is behind by 4.8 percent,
year to date. Wyoming production (of which 96 percent normally
comprises the PRB) is currently estimated as 275.0 mmst, cumulative
through September 27. Wyoming year-to-date coal production is
0.7 percent ahead of the equivalent 2002 period.
The graph of U.S. Monthly Production below includes monthly
coal production estimates for the first eight months of 2003.
January through June are revised production estimates using
second-quarter mine-level reports from the Mine Safety and Health
Administration (MSHA). Production for July through August is
from preliminary EIA estimates. The January through August U.S.
estimates for 2003 total 711.1 mmst, or 2.4 percent behind the
same period of 2002. One month earlier, the January through
July estimate was 2.8 percent behind the same period last year.
Coal
Imports (updated October 3)
There was a time
when U.S. coal producers worried that imported coal might threaten
the domestic industry. Times have changed. Several large U.S.
companies today own shares in foreign coal mines and sell imported
coal in the United States and other countries. From the customer’s
point of view, imported coal has been an option for power plants
or industries situated well for delivery-- usually at attractive
prices—but some have been reluctant, or found infrastructure
lacking in the tidewater. This year there seems to be increased
discussion of the import option among coal buyers, as supplies
of Central Appalachian (CAP) coal have diminished and prices
have increased
The timing of domestic customers, for the near term at least,
was not good. Prices for international coals for the European
market rose steadily this past summer, followed by rising shipping
rates, as the long, hot summer in Europe spurred coal demand.
First South African coal sold out for the year; now it appears
South American coal is no longer available. Southern Company
learned last week that it responded too late to an offer of
South American coal for 2004 delivery, from major U.S. producer,
Drummond Coal Company. In fact, Drummond, Glencore, and perhaps
Cerrejon are fully committed for the rest of 2003 (U.S. Coal
Review, September 29, pp 1, 13). Some eastern power generators
may have been considering picking up imported coal to replace
some of the CAP coal that is in short supply.
Ironically,
taking the longer view, Ernie Thrasher, President of AMCI Export
Corporation, explained why the U.S. coal industry should welcome
the still-limited inroads made by coal imports in recent years
(Imports—Threat of Opportunity?? at Platts Coal Marketing Days,
September 22-23). Initially, consumers gave Colombian, Venezuelan,
and Indonesian coals a second look because of good prices, because
they offer low- and very low-sulfur products, and because they
offer some supply diversity during concerns over CAP reserve
base. Prices are up and currently more volatile in international
coal markets, but the low-sulfur coals from South America and
Indonesia can in the longer term help keep some domestic mines
producing. The two coal types can be blended to “manufacture”
blends that meet the emission limit of 1.2 pounds of sulfur
dioxide per million Btu, or just to keep it within ranges covered
by emission allowances. Because of their Btu levels, some imported
coals also react well in reducing nitrous oxide emissions. Mr.
Thrasher noted that imports can help assure customers that sufficient
quantities and qualities of coal will be available to meet environmental
requirements. As a result, operators are more likely to stay
committed to burning coal in their power plants.
View Earlier Coal News and Markets Reports
Contact(s): Rich Bonskowski
Phone:
202-287-1725
Fax:
202-287-1934
e-mail:
richard.bonskowski@eia.doe.gov
Bill
Watson
Phone:
202-287-1971
Fax:
202-287-1934
e-mail:
william.watson@eia.doe.gov
|