Preface
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases—a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS.
The AEO98 projections are used by Federal, State, and local governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. They are published in accordance with Section 205(c) of the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), which requires the Administrator of EIA to prepare an annual report that contains trends and projections of energy consumption and supply.
Issues was prepared under the direction of Mary J. Hutzler (mhutzler@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Director of the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting; Arthur T. Andersen (aanderse@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-1441), Director of the International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gas Division; Susan H. Holte (sholte @eia.doe.gov, 202/586-4838), Director of the Demand and Integration Division; James M. Kendell (jkendell @eia.doe.gov, 202/586-9646), Director of the Oil and Gas Division; Scott B. Sitzer (ssitzer@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2308), Director of the Coal and Electric Power Division; and Andy S. Kydes (akydes@eia.doe.gov, 202/586-2222), Senior Modeling Analyst. Specific questions about the papers in Issues may be addressed to the following authors:
| “Competitive
Electricity Prices: An Update” “An Exploration of
Network Modeling: The Case of NEPOOL” “Modeling
Technological Change and Diffusion in the Buildings Sector” “The Importance of
Location and Housing Type with Respect to “Measures of Oil
Import Dependence” “Motor Fuels Tax
Trends and Assumptions” “Coal Pricing
Methodology for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998” “Annual Energy
Outlook Forecast Evaluation” “National Energy
Modeling System/Annual Energy Outlook Conference Summary” |
Issues will be available on the August release of the EIA CD-ROM and on the EIA Home Page on the Internet (http://www.eia.doe.gov) by mid-July 1998. AEO98, the assumptions underlying the AEO98 projections, and tables of regional and other detailed results from the AEO98 forecasts are also available on the CD-ROM and on the EIA Home Page. The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 1998, DOE/EIA-0581(98), which provides a summary description of NEMS, and complete model documentation reports for NEMS are available on the CD-ROM and on the EIA Home Page.
To order EIA publications and for questions on other energy statistics available from EIA, please contact EIA’s National Energy Information Center. The address, telephone numbers, and hours are as follows:
National
Energy Information Center, EI-30 Telephone: 202/586-8800 World Wide Web Site: http://www.eia.doe.gov |
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Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update
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