EIA-Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2008)

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Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2008)

Each year since 1996, EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2008.

	Annual Energy Outlook Restrospective Review, 2008 Report
	Revisions to Gross Domestic Product and Implications for the Comparisons

	Table 1. Summary of Differences between AEO Reference Cases aand Realized Outcomes
	Table 2. Comparison of Absolute Percent Difference between AEO Reference Case Projections and Realized Outcomes

Actual vs. Reference Case Projection Tables
	Table 3. Gross Domestic Product
	Table 4. World Oil Prices
	Table 5. Total Petroleumm Consumption
	Table 6. Domestic Crude Oil Production
	Table 7. Petroleum Net Imports
	Table 8. Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
	Table 9. Total Natural Gas Consumption
	Table 10. Natural Gas Production
	Table 11. Natural Gas Net Imports
	Table 12. Coal Prices to Electric Generating Plants
	Table 13. Total Coal Consumption
	Table 14. Coal Production
	Table 15. Average Electricity Prices
	Table 16. Total Electricity Sales
	Table 17. Total Energy Consumption
	Table 18. Total Residential Energy Consumption
	Table 19. Total Commercial Energy Consumption
	Table 20. Total Industrial Energy Consumption
	Table 21. Total Transportation Energy Consumption
	Table 22. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions
	Table 23. Energy Intensity

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