Summary
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is likely to spend $460 million annually on missiles used as targets for flight tests. Executing these tests depends on the quality and availability of targets. Congress asked GAO to assess (1) if MDA is providing reliable targets; (2) the causes of any deficiencies; and (3) if resolutions exist for any problems identified. To do this, GAO analyzed acquisition policies and procedures; flight test data; and budget, program execution, and acquisition materials; and interviewed MDA and DOD officials.
MDA has difficulty in both supplying targets for missile defense testing as well as in developing a new family of short, medium and long-range targets. The number of target failures and anomalies (failing to achieve one or more non-critical mission objective or partially achieving a critical mission objective) during flight tests has increased since 2006, contributing to delays in flight tests and modification of flight test objectives. In addition, the average unit cost of targets has grown significantly, from $4.5 million to $8.5 million from 2002 to 2006 to current estimates of $32 million to $65 million for the targets planned from 2008 to 2010. Many factors contribute to this cost growth, including increased complexity of targets to better reflect an evolving threat and late changes to target requirements on contract. MDA's difficulty in supplying existing targets is driven by diminishing sources for components, unanticipated costs, and problems incorporating requirements into contracts and establishing program baselines. MDA has also encountered problems developing the new family of targets, an effort currently estimated to cost at least $1 billion. The problems are due, at least in part, to the fact that a sound business case was not established before proceeding with the program and the attendant contracting strategy. The decision to pursue this new family of targets was made without a formal cost analysis and it is unclear whether MDA evaluated all alternatives before making this commitment. GAO also could not identify an original approved acquisition strategy for the new family of targets. Consequently, developmental problems have arisen in the new family of targets, leading to cost growth, delayed flight tests, and deferral of several key capabilities. MDA is taking a series of actions to address these problems, such as: (1) establishing technical, cost, and schedule baselines for all missions in the 2-year integrated master test plan; (2) drafting long-term target capability requirements; (3) developing a new cost model for targets; (4) making plans to improve risk management by considering program-wide issues, and including programmatic risks, cost and schedule in risk assessments. However, the prospects for resolution of the target acquisition problems are unclear and the overall success of the Ballistic Missile Defense System flight test program depends on the success of a new family of targets under development.
Recommendations
Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change
from "In process" to "Implemented" or "Not implemented" based on our follow up work.
Director:
Team:
Phone:
Paul L. Francis
Government Accountability Office: Acquisition and Sourcing Management
(202) 512-2811
Matters for Congressional Consideration
Recommendation: The Congress has repeatedly stressed the need for robust testing of the Ballistic Missile Defense System and has become concerned with the health of the MDA targets program. The Congress has also expressed concern that the FTF program is proceeding at a slower pace and greater cost than expected. Therefore, Congress may wish to consider whether to require the Secretary of Defense to report the departmentally approved missile defense target development and procurement strategy, business case, and baselines to the Congressional Defense Committees.
Status: In process
Comments: When we determine what steps the Congress has taken, we will provide updated information.
Recommendations for Executive Action
Recommendation: The Secretary of Defense should require the Director, MDA to establish a revised business case for providing reliable and timely targets for a robust flight test program. Such a business case should, among other things, (1) determine the best approach for providing an ample supply of quality targets to support the missile defense flight test program, including consideration of approaches other than the FTF; (2) demonstrate that the chosen approach--including the attendant acquisition and contracting strategy-can be executed with available technologies, funding, time, and management capacity; (3) establish separate cost, schedule, and performance baselines for each class of target under development against which progress can be measured; and (4) reflect input from key organizations, such as the Missile Defense Executive Board, independent cost estimators, and the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation.
Agency Affected: Department of Defense
Status: In process
Comments: When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
Recommendation: The Secretary of Defense should align MDA's plans and resources with the targets program approach resulting from the above business case.
Agency Affected: Department of Defense
Status: In process
Comments: When we confirm what actions the agency has taken in response to this recommendation, we will provide updated information.
