GAO-07-1048R, DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner


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entitled 'DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with 
Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner' 
which was released on September 28, 2007. 

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September 28, 2007: 

Congressional Committees: 

Subject: DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with 
Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner: 

In January 2007, the President stated that the high levels of violence 
in Iraq had overwhelmed the political gains that the Iraqis had made 
and required a new U.S. strategy for stabilizing the country. The new 
strategy recognized that until the Iraqi people have a basic measure of 
security, they would not be able to make significant and sustainable 
political and economic progress. To help Iraqi leaders provide security 
for their population, the United States deployed about 30,000 
additional troops to Iraq during the spring of 2007, bringing the total 
number of U.S. military personnel up to about 160,000 as of mid-June 
2007. 

Enemy-initiated attacks data are a key indicator of progress in 
improving Iraq's security situation, an important condition that, 
according to the administration, must be met before the United States 
can reduce its military presence in Iraq. While attacks data alone may 
not provide a complete picture of Iraq's security situation, Department 
of Defense (DOD) and Multinational Force-Iraq (MNF-I) officials state 
that the data provide a reasonably sound depiction of general security 
trends in the country. Since 2004, we have periodically provided this 
information to Congress in classified and unclassified briefings, 
reports, and testimonies.[Footnote 1] In response to GAO's requests, 
various DOD components--most recently the Defense Intelligence Agency 
(DIA)--have assisted GAO in publicly reporting trends in the security 
situation by declassifying the attacks data on a monthly basis. In our 
report on the status of the achievement of Iraqi benchmarks, we 
provided attacks data through July 31, 2007.[Footnote 2] This report 
provides data through August 31, 2007. 

While the administration has provided the Congress with aggregated 
attacks data in DOD's quarterly reports and more limited attacks 
information in the July and September 2007 benchmarks reports, it is 
important that the Congress and the American public receive the monthly 
attacks data routinely from the Department of Defense. We are 
recommending that DOD make the data publicly available each month in a 
timely manner. 

The updated attacks data we provide in this letter are sufficiently 
reliable for establishing general trends in the number of enemy- 
initiated attacks in Iraq. To determine the reliability of the data, we 
reviewed MNF-I's attacks reporting guidance, compared the unclassified 
data to classified sources, and discussed how the data are collected, 
analyzed, and reported with DIA and MNF-I officials. While the attacks 
data provide a reasonably sound depiction of security trends, DOD 
documents and officials acknowledge that these data provide only a 
partial picture of the violence in Iraq because not all attacks against 
civilians and Iraqi security forces are observed by or reported to 
coalition forces. Our latest analysis of attacks data was conducted 
from June through August 2007 in accordance with generally accepted 
government auditing standards. 

Enemy-Initiated Attacks Remain at High Levels: 

Overall security conditions in Iraq have deteriorated and grown more 
complex, since May 2003, as evidenced by the increased numbers of 
attacks and the Sunni-Shi'a sectarian strife that followed the February 
2006 bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra. Enemy-initiated attacks 
against the coalition and its Iraqi partners increased through October 
2006 and have remained at high levels since that time (see fig. 1). 
These attacks have increased around major religious and political 
events, including Ramadan[Footnote 3]and elections. Coalition forces 
are still the primary target of attacks, but the number of attacks on 
Iraqi security forces and civilians also has increased since 2003. 

Figure 1: Enemy-Initiated Attacks against the Coalition, Iraqi Security 
Forces, and Civilians (May 2003 through August 2007): 

[See PDF for image] 

Source: GAO analysis of DIA-reported Multi-National Force-Iraq data, 
August 2007. 

Note: Attacks against infrastructure account for less than 1 percent of 
enemy-initiated attacks. 

[End of figure] 

Following the President's announcement of the new U.S. strategy, the 
average number of daily attacks[Footnote 4] decreased slightly from 
about 170 in January 2007 to about 160 in March 2007 but then increased 
to about 180 in June 2007 (see fig. 2). The average number of daily 
attacks in June 2007 was about the same level as the prior high of 
about 180 attacks per day, which occurred in October 2006 around the 
time of Ramadan. The average number of daily attacks decreased to 123 
in August 2007--the lowest level since June 2006 when the average 
number of attacks was 121 per day. The decrease in the average total 
number of daily attacks in August 2007 was primarily due to a decrease 
in the number of attacks against coalition forces. Further, the average 
number of daily attacks against civilians decreased to 22 in August 
compared to an average of approximately 30 per day over the preceding 
14 months. Although the average number of daily attacks has declined in 
recent months, data from previous years indicates the number of attacks 
typically increases during the month of Ramadan. Ramadan began on 
September 13, 2007. 

Figure 2: Average Number of Daily Attacks against the Coalition, Iraqi 
Security Forces, and Civilians (May 2003 through August 2007): 

[See PDF for image] 

Source: GAO analysis of DIA-reported Multi-National Force-Iraq data, 
August 2007. 

Note: The Baghdad security plan was implemented in February 2007. 

[End of figure] 

The enemy-initiated attacks counted in DIA's reporting include car, 
suicide, and other bombs; ambushes; murders, executions, and 
assassinations; sniper fire; indirect fire (mortars or rockets); direct 
fire (small arms or rocket-propelled grenades); surface-to-air fire 
(such as man-portable air defense systems or MANPADS); and other 
attacks on civilians. They do not include violent incidents that 
coalition or Iraqi security forces initiate, such as cordon and 
searches, raids, arrests, and caches cleared. DIA derives its attack 
trend data from an MNF-I data base. According to DIA, the incidents 
captured in military reporting do not account for all violence 
throughout Iraq. For example, they may underreport incidents of Shi'a 
militias fighting each other and attacks against Iraqi security forces 
in southern Iraq and other areas with few or no coalition forces. DIA 
officials stated, however, that they represent a reliable and 
consistent source of information that can be used to identify trends in 
enemy activity and the overall security situation.[Footnote 5] 

In DOD's quarterly reports to Congress, the department has provided 
highly aggregated attacks data to portray security trends.[Footnote 6] 
For example, in its June 2007 report, DOD provides information on 
average weekly attacks since April 2004 for inconsistent time periods 
that range from 6 to 32 weeks and coincide with political events and 
recent military operations in Iraq (see encl. 1). Further, the 
administration's July and September 2007 Iraq benchmarks reports 
discuss some types of attacks but do not provide specific information 
on overall changes in monthly attack levels over time. We believe that 
more detailed monthly attacks data would provide routine and up-to-date 
information that would allow Congress to regularly track changes in 
Iraq's security situation. 

Recommendation for Executive Action: 

Given the importance of congressional oversight and the American 
public's interest in progress in stabilizing Iraq, we are recommending 
that DOD should, on a monthly basis, make data on the enemy-initiated 
attacks available to Congress, the American public, and GAO in a timely 
manner. 

Agency Comments: 

The Department of Defense concurred with our recommendation stating 
that it will provide the attack data specified in the report to GAO and 
Congress (see encl. 2). On September 14, 2007, the department included 
monthly attacks data for the period June 2004 through August 2007 in 
its quarterly report to Congress, Measuring Stability and Security in 
Iraq. 

We distributed copies of this letter to appropriate congressional 
committees. This letter will also be available at no charge on our Web 
site at [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov]. If you or your staff have any 
questions about this letter, please contact Joseph Christoff, director 
of GAO's International Affairs and Trade team, at (202) 512-8979 or by 
email at christoffj@gao.gov. Other key contributors to the report 
include Judith McCloskey, David Bruno, Lynn Cothern, Mattias Fenton, 
Dorian Herring, Melissa Pickworth, and Jena Sinkfield. 

Sincerely yours, 

Signed by: 

David M. Walker: 

Comptroller General of the United States: 

cc: The Honorable Robert M. Gates: 

List of Recipients: 

The Honorable Carl Levin: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable John S. McCain: 
Ranking Member: 
Committee on Armed Services: 
United States Senate: 

The Honorable Joseph R. Biden, Jr.: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Richard G. Lugar: 
Ranking Member: 
Committee on Foreign Relations: 
United States Senate: 

The Honorable Daniel Inouye: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Ted Stevens: 
Ranking Member: 
Subcommittee on Defense: 
Committee on Appropriations: 
United States Senate: 

The Honorable Patrick J. Leahy: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Judd Gregg: 
Ranking Member: 
Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs: 
Committee on Appropriations: 
United States Senate: 

The Honorable Ike Skelton: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Duncan L. Hunter: 
Ranking Member: 
Committee on Armed Services: 
House of Representatives: 

The Honorable Tom Lantos: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Ileana Ros-Lehtinen: 
Ranking Member: 
Committee on Foreign Affairs: 
House of Representatives: 

The Honorable Henry A. Waxman: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Tom Davis: Ranking Member: 
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: 
House of Representatives: 

The Honorable John F. Tierney: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Christopher Shays: 
Ranking Member: 
Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs: 
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: 
House of Representatives: 

The Honorable Joseph P. Murtha: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable C.W. Bill Young: 
Ranking Member: 
Subcommittee on Defense: 
Committee on Appropriations: 
House of Representatives: 

The Honorable Nita M. Lowey: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Frank R. Wolf: 
Ranking Member: 
Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs: 
Committee on Appropriations: 
House of Representatives: 

[End of section] 

Enclosure 1: 

Attacks Data Presented in DOD's June 2007 Quarterly Report to Congress: 

[See PDF for image] 

Source: DOD, Measuring Stability in Iraq, June 2007, Report to Congress 
in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 
2007, Section 9010, Public Law 109-289 (Washington, D.C.: June 2007). 

[End of figure] 

[End of section] 

Enclosure 2: 

Comments from the Department of Defense: 

Office Of The Assistant Secretary Of Defense: 
2400 Defense: 
Pentagon Washington, DC 20301-2400: 

International Security Affairs: 

August 17, 2007: 

Mr. Joseph A. Christoff: 
Director, International Affairs and Trade: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street N.W.: 
Washington, DC 20548: 

Dear Mr. Christoff: 

This is the Department of Defense (DoD) response to the GAO draft 
report, GAO- 07-1048R, "DOD Should Provide Congress and the American 
Public with Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq," dated 
July 20, 2007 (GAO Code 320498). The Department appreciates the 
opportunity to comment on the draft report. 

Recommendation 1: The GAO recommends that DoD should, on a monthly 
basis, make data on the enemy-initiated attacks available to Congress, 
the American public, and GAO. 

DoD Response: Concur. The Department will continue to provide the 
attack data specified in the draft report to Congress and to the GAO on 
a monthly basis. The Department will continue to provide the monthly 
data available to the American public in the quarterly report to 
Congress, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, available at 
[hyperlink, http://www.defenselink.mil. 

If you have any questions concerning these comments, my point of 
contact is Mr. Peter Velz at 703-571-2525. 

Sincerely, 

Signed by: 

Mark T. Kimmitt: 

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East: 

[End of section] 

Footnotes: 

[1] For example, see GAO, Rebuilding Iraq: Resource, Security, 
Governance, Essential Services, and Oversight Issues, GAO-04-92R 
(Washington, D.C.: June 2004); GAO, Securing, Stabilizing, and 
Stabilizing Iraq: Key Issues for Congressional Oversight, GAO-07-308SP 
(Washington, D.C.: Jan. 2007); GAO, DOD Reports Should Link Economic, 
Governance, and Security Indicators to Conditions for Stabilizing Iraq, 
GAO-06-152C (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 2005). 

[2] GAO, Securing, Stabilizing, and Rebuilding Iraq: Iraqi Government 
Has Not Met Most Legislative, Security, and Economic Benchmarks, GAO-
07- 1195 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 2006). 

[3] Ramadan is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. Over the past 4 
years, the month of Ramadan began about October 27, 2003; October 16, 
2004; October 5, 2005; and September 24, 2006. In 2007, Ramadan began 
on September 13. 

[4] The average number of daily attacks is calculated by dividing the 
total number of enemy-initiated attacks against the coalition, Iraqi 
security forces, and civilians for a specific month by the number of 
days in the month. 

[5] In June 2007, DIA notified GAO that its April 2007 attack data were 
incorrect because it had excluded attacks from a new subordinate 
command established on April 1, 2007. According to DIA, Multi-National 
Division-Center did not properly forward its April attack data because 
of inadequate reporting procedures; it has since corrected the problem. 
This report contains the corrected April data. 

[6] DOD, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, June 2007, Report to 
Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations 
Act of 2007, Section 9010, Public Law 109-289 (Washington, D.C.: June 
2007). 

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