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Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for December and the Daily Treasury Statements for January | February 11, 2000 |
CBO estimates that the total budget surplus for the first four months
of fiscal year 2000 was $40 billion, an increase of $24 billion over the
surplus recorded at the same point last year. CBO is currently projecting
a total budget surplus of $176 billion for the fiscal year, reflecting
surpluses of $23 billion in the on-budget accounts and $153 billion in
the off-budget accounts (mostly Social Security). In 1999, the government
recorded an on-budget surplus of $0.7 billion, the first such surplus since
1960.
DECEMBER RESULTS (In billions of dollars) |
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Preliminary Estimate |
Actual | Difference | ||||
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Receipts | 201.5 | 201.2 | -0.3 | |||
Outlays | 169.0 | 168.1 | -0.9 | |||
Surplus | 32.5 | 33.1 | 0.6 | |||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
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The Treasury reported a surplus of $33.1 billion in December, slightly
more than the $32.5 billion that CBO had projected on the basis of the
Daily Treasury Statements. Revenues were $0.3 billion below CBO's
preliminary estimate, and outlays were $0.9 billion lower.
ESTIMATES FOR JANUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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Actual FY1999 |
Preliminary FY2000 |
Estimated Change |
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Receipts | 171.7 | 189.0 | 17.3 | |||
Outlays | 101.2 | 128.2 | 27.0 | |||
Surplus | 70.5 | 60.8 | -9.7 | |||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
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The government typically runs a surplus in January because revenues
are boosted by the quarterly payments of estimated individual income taxes
and outlays are depressed by the shift into December of certain payments
that would ordinarily be made on January 1. CBO estimates that the surplus
this January was almost $61 billion, about $10 billion less than the surplus
in January 1999. That comparison is distorted, however, because last year
January 3 fell on a weekend and about $29 billion in Social Security payments were made in December instead
of January. After adjusting for that shift, the surplus in January 2000
was about $20 billion more than the surplus in January 1999.
BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH JANUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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October-January
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Estimated Change |
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FY1999 | FY2000 | |||||
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Receipts | 584 | 633 | 48 | |||
Outlays | 568 | 592 | 24 | |||
Surplus | 16 | 40 | 24 | |||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | ||||||
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The estimated surplus for the first four months of fiscal year 2000
was $40 billion, compared with $16 billion for the same period last year.
Receipts were about $48 billion higher than in fiscal year 1999, while
outlays grew by only $24 billion.
RECEIPTS THROUGH JANUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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Major Source | October-January
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Percentage Change |
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FY1999 | FY2000 | ||||||
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Individual Income | 287 | 327 | 13.8 | ||||
Corporate Income | 53 | 54 | 1.7 | ||||
Social Insurance | 191 | 202 | 5.8 | ||||
Other | 53 | 50 | -6.4 | ||||
Total | 584 | 633 | 8.3 | ||||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||
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After the first four months of the fiscal year, revenues are 8.3 percent
higher than at the same point a year earlier. Receipts from individual
income taxes are up by almost 14 percent, reflecting strong withholding
by employers in December and January as well as strong quarterly estimated
payments by individuals in January. Receipts from corporate income taxes
are up by nearly 2 percent after falling by about that same percentage
in fiscal year 1999. Other receipts have declined by more than 6 percent,
mainly because of a drop of 18 percent in excise tax revenues. That drop
occurred because a large payment of excise taxes that had been postponed
from the previous fiscal year was finally paid in October of last year.
Excluding October, excise tax payments this year have grown by about 4
percent.
OUTLAYS THROUGH JANUARY (In billions of dollars) |
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Major Category | October-January
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Percentage Change |
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FY1999 | FY2000 | ||||||
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Defense--Military | 85 | 90 | 6.5 | ||||
Social Security Benefits | 126 | 130 | 3.3 | ||||
Medicare | 69 | 70 | 2.5 | ||||
Medicaid | 35 | 38 | 7.6 | ||||
Net Interest on the Public Debt | 79 | 78 | -1.4 | ||||
Other | 175 | 186 | 6.4 | ||||
Total | 568 | 592 | 4.2 | ||||
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SOURCES: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||
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CBO estimates that outlays were 4.2 percent higher in the first four months of fiscal year 2000 than in the same period last year. That growth rate is higher than the 3.1 percent rate recorded for fiscal year 1999 as a whole.
Both of the major health care programs are growing more rapidly than they did last year. Medicare spending (which declined by almost 1 percent from 1998 to 1999) is up by about 2.5 percent so far this year. Medicaid spending (which grew by 6.9 percent in 1999) has increased by 7.6 percent in the first four months of fiscal year 2000. Defense outlays and payments of Social Security benefits are also rising at a faster pace than they did last year.
Net interest costs continue to decline, but higher interest rates are
offsetting some of the savings obtained from reducing the public debt.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 2000 (In billions of dollars) |
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OMB | CBO | ||
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Total Receipts | 1,956 | 1,945 | |
Total Outlays | 1,776 | 1,769 | |
Total Surplus | 179 | 176 | |
On-budget surplus | 32 | 23 | |
Off-budget surplus | 148 | 153 | |
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SOURCES: Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office. | |||
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Both CBO and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) have recently
released new projections of the budget outlook for fiscal year 2000. CBO
is now estimating a total surplus of $176 billion (in the absence of additional
spending legislation), compared with OMB's estimate of $179 billion. CBO
is projecting that revenues will increase by 6.4 percent this year and
outlays will grow by 3.9 percent. (See The Budget and Economic Outlook:
Fiscal Years 2001-2010, January 2000.) OMB's estimates of total revenues
and outlays are slightly higher. CBO anticipates an on-budget surplus for
2000 of $23 billion; OMB estimates $32 billion.
NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this
report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund,
which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.
Prepared by Robert Sunshine and Mark Booth. |