Initial unemployment insurance claims rise.  The Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance were 406,000 for the week ending July 19.  This is an increase of 34,000 from the previous week’s level.  The 4-week moving average for initial claims rose to 382,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week.

Sales of new and existing homes remain weak.  The latest data from the Census Bureau show that June sales of new single-family houses were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000, down from 533,000 in May and 33.2 percent below the June 2007 rate of 793,000.  The inventory of unsold new houses represents a supply of 10 months at current sales rates on a seasonally adjusted basis.  The sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.2 percent between May and June and were 14.8 percent below sales rates a year ago, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. (See Chart) On an unadjusted basis existing single-family home sales were up 4.9 percent for the month, and down 16.0 percent year on year.

Record budget deficit is forecast for 2009.  The Office of Management and Budget announced that the budget deficit will likely grow to $482 billion in FY’2009, which would surpass the previous deficit record of $413 billion set in FY’2004.  The deficit forecast reflects the combination of increased spending and tax revenue shortfalls due to the weakening economy.  The projection actually underestimates the deficit, because it leaves out about $80 billion in costs for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This year’s deficit is expected to reach $389 billion, more than 50 percent higher than when estimated last July.

It now appears that, unlike in decades past, families can no longer rely on women’s employment to help boost family income during a downturn. Historically, because women did not experience sharp job losses during recessions, they could buffer family incomes against male unemployment. This changed with the 2001 recession as women lost more jobs than they had in prior recessions.

Up until the 2000’s, during recessions, women typically lost very few jobs—on net. During recoveries, women gained jobs very quickly and typically had returned to their pre-recession employment rates within months after a recession’s official end. However, this changed in the 2001 recession: unlike in the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s, during the 2001 recession, the percent of jobs lost by women often exceeded that of men in the industries hardest hit by the downturn. The 2001 recession was different because it led to job losses in the industries that women worked in.

The 2000s recovery was also different from prior recoveries. This was the first recovery in the post-World War II period during which women’s employment rates did not return to their pre-recession peak. (See Snapshot) As of last month, women’s employment rates remain below where they were at their peak in the strong recovery of the 1990s. This is a sharp departure from prior trends. Women are becoming increasingly equal to men in terms of losing... jobs during recessions and not gaining them back during the recovery.

When women lose jobs, families lose a large share of their income and experience economic volatility. Wives typically bring home more than a third of their family’s income and single mothers are sole breadwinners. Families are more economically vulnerable as wives are no longer insulating families from economic hardship in times of higher unemployment and falling or stagnant real wages. Single-mother families are now especially vulnerable.

Families can ill afford to lose a parent’s earnings, especially as costs for basics, like food and gasoline continue to rise. Over the past three decades, only those families who have a working wife have seen real increases in family income: families without a working wife have real incomes today that are nearly identical to what they were over 35 years ago, in the early 1970s.

If the prior recession’s trend holds, women will suffer as much as men in the 2008 recession. Because women are disproportionately represented in state and local government services, their job losses are likely to grow in the latter part of the recession as state and local governments are forced to implement cut-backs in spending in areas that women are disproportionately employed, such as education and health care. Fiscal aid to the states is important to help states maintain programs—and keep workers—in the face of ensuing budget cuts. Ensuring that all workers—women and men—can access unemployment compensation when they lose their jobs is critical. Further, challenges facing working families to balance work and family responsibilities are exacerbated in the current downturn, signaling a greater need for workplace flexibility.

The full report, “Equality in Job Loss: Women Are Increasingly Vulnerable to Layoffs During Recessions,” is available on the Joint Economic Committee website here.