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Continued Oversight and Risk Management Are Critical' which was 
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Testimony: 

Before the Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government 
Information, Federal Services, and International Security, Committee on 
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate: 

United States Government Accountability Office: 

GAO: 

For Release on Delivery Expected at 2:30 p.m. EDT: 

Tuesday, July 17, 2007: 

2010 Census: 

Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and 
Risk Management Are Critical: 

Statement of Mathew J. Scirè, Director, 
Strategic Issues: 

and: 

David A. Powner, Director, 
Information Technology: 

GAO-07-1106T: 

GAO Highlights: 

Highlights of GAO-07-1106T, testimony before the Subcommittee on 
Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services, 
and International Security, Committee on Homeland Security and 
Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate 

Why GAO Did This Study: 

The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that 
produces critical data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw 
congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal 
assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will 
cost $11.5 billion, making it the most expensive in the nation’s 
history after adjusting for inflation. This testimony, based primarily 
on GAO’s issued reports and preliminary observations from our ongoing 
work, discusses the extent to which the Bureau has (1) developed a 
comprehensive project plan with the most current cost data; (2) 
incorporated lessons learned from Dress Rehearsal activities; (3) 
managed automation and technology for the reengineered census; and (4) 
planned for an accurate census in areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina 
and Rita. 

What GAO Found: 

The Bureau is conducting its Dress Rehearsal of the 2010 Census, the 
last opportunity it will have to test its design under census-like 
conditions. Given the importance of a successful enumeration and the 
complexities of enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more 
technology-dependent census, our message remains that the risks 
associated with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and 
managed. GAO found that the Bureau is developing but has not yet 
completed a comprehensive project plan that includes milestones, 
itemized costs, and measurable goals, nor has it updated the 2010 life-
cycle cost estimate to reflect current information from testing. Having 
a comprehensive project plan and updated cost information will allow 
the Bureau to manage the operations and cost of the decennial census. 
Moreover, GAO observed technical problems with the handheld computing 
devices used in the Dress Rehearsal by field staff for address 
canvassing (in which the Bureau verifies addresses). If the device does 
not function as expected or needed, little time will be left for the 
Bureau to take corrective action. In addition, during the LUCA Dress 
Rehearsal, the Bureau did not fully test software tools intended to 
reduce burden on participants. Also, the Bureau’s level of reliance on 
automation and technology for the 2010 Census, at an estimated cost of 
$3 billion, makes effective contractor oversight (of cost, schedule, 
and technical performance) and risk management activities imperative. 
Finally, in the Gulf Coast Region, the condition of the changing 
housing stock is likely to present additional challenges for the 
address canvassing operation and subsequent operations. However, the 
Bureau has not finalized plans for modifying the address canvassing 
operation or subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region. 

Table: Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events: 

Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data. 

[End of table] 

What GAO Recommends: 

At this time, GAO is not making new recommendations, but past reports 
recommended that the Bureau take steps to develop a project plan for 
the 2010 Census, further test software for the Local Update of Census 
Addresses (LUCA) program, and promote an accurate census in areas 
affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Bureau generally agreed 
with these recommendations and has begun to implement some of them. 

[Hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1106T]. 

To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on 
the link above. For more information, contact Mathew J. Scire at (202) 
512-6806 or sciremj@gao.gov. 

[End of section] 

Mr. Chairman, Mr. Coburn, Members of the Subcommittee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to discuss the status of 
the Census Bureau's (Bureau) preparations for the 2010 Census. Our 
testimony today is based on issued and ongoing work and addresses the 
Bureau's efforts to prepare for the next decennial census by (1) having 
a strategic plan in place to help control costs; (2) incorporating 
lessons learned from the 2008 Dress Rehearsal operation underway, 
including the use of handheld computing devices; (3) managing 
automation and technology that are an integral part of the reengineered 
census; and (4) planning how to ensure an accurate population count in 
areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. 

As you know, Mr. Chairman, the decennial census is a critical national 
effort mandated by the Constitution. Census data are used to apportion 
seats in the Congress, redraw congressional districts, allocate 
billions of dollars in federal assistance to state and local 
governments, and for numerous other public and private sector purposes. 
In addition, the census is a complicated undertaking and a substantial 
investment, requiring careful planning, risk management, and oversight 
to ensure its ultimate success. The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census 
will cost $11.5 billion over its life cycle, making it the most 
expensive census in our country's history, even after adjusting for 
inflation. For example, the average cost per housing unit for 2010 is 
expected to increase by about 29 percent from 2000 levels (from $56 per 
housing unit to $72 per housing unit in 2000 inflation-adjusted 
dollars). Since Census 2000, we have been examining how the Bureau is 
preparing for the 2010 Census, including incorporating lessons learned 
from the 2000 Census into its planning for the 2010 decennial. Given 
the importance of a successful enumeration and the complexities of 
enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more technology-dependent 
census, our message remains that the risks associated with the 
decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed. We have 
long supported an approach to oversight that is timely, rigorous, 
constructive, and holds the Bureau accountable to help ensure that 
accurate results are delivered within projected costs. 

Today's hearing is particularly timely, as the Bureau has begun 2008 
Dress Rehearsal activities in California and North Carolina. Census Day 
for the Dress Rehearsal is April 1, 2008. In concept, a Dress Rehearsal 
should be a dry run of the full enumeration planned for 2010, and 
include the testing of operations and procedures planned for the 
decennial census under as close to census-like procedures as possible. 
If properly executed, the Dress Rehearsal should serve as a tool to 
help the Bureau identify and mitigate risk associated with the 2010 
Census. 

Thus, the Bureau is at an important point in planning and conducting 
the 2010 Census, as it begins the first operations for 2010 while 
continuing its dry run of other operations. Sound risk management is 
important to a successful census because many risks are interrelated, 
and a shortcoming in one operation could cause other operations to 
spiral downward. We would like to highlight several areas of risk that 
the Bureau needs to manage to ensure its success. For example: 

* To provide the Congress, stakeholders, and others a clear picture of 
the status of the 2010 Census operations and the likely cost, the 
Bureau needs to complete its 2010 Census comprehensive project plan and 
update the 2010 life-cycle cost estimate to reflect current information 
from testing. 

* During recent Dress Rehearsal operations, we observed technical 
problems with the handheld mobile computers the Bureau expects to use 
for the 2010 Census. If the device does not function as expected or 
needed, little time will be left for the Bureau to take corrective 
action. Further, in the first operation of the Dress Rehearsal--the 
Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)--the Bureau made some 
improvements over the Census 2000 program; however, it did not fully 
test certain tools, such as computer-based training and other new 
software, with potential users. It will be important for the Bureau to 
complete such software testing. 

* Greater reliance on contractor-developed automation and technology 
for the 2010 Census requires the Bureau to focus on sound acquisition 
and management of these key investments. 

* Finally, because the changing housing stock may affect the Bureau's 
ability to effectively conduct address canvassing and other operations 
in the Gulf Coast region, it is important for the Bureau to complete 
its planning for addressing the challenges that the Bureau's temporary 
field staff would likely face in such hurricane-affected geographic 
areas. 

Our remarks today are based primarily on reports that GAO issued from 
2002 through June 2007 on the planning and development of the 2010 
Census, as well as observations from our ongoing work on the 
performance of the handheld mobile computing devices and the Bureau's 
acquisition of monitoring of key automation and technology investments. 
(Please see Related GAO Products page for a list of relevant reports.) 
In addition to the Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau conducted several field 
tests for its reengineered 2010 Census--including deployment of earlier 
prototypes of handheld mobile computing devices. For the 2004 field 
test, we visited Queens, New York, and several counties in rural south- 
central Georgia. We visited the Texas and South Dakota test sites 
during the Bureau's 2006 field test. During these visits we observed 
several operations including address canvassing and the nonresponse 
follow-up operation. During the autumn of 2006, we observed the Local 
Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal in 
sites located in North Carolina and California. In January 2007, we 
visited areas in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas affected by 
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and in June 2007 we observed the Bureau's 
address canvassing operation using the handheld devices at both of the 
Dress Rehearsal sites. In regard to technology acquisition and 
contracts, we analyzed current project and acquisition documents, 
including earned value management data, and we interviewed Bureau 
officials and contractors. To determine the status of risks and whether 
the Bureau is adequately managing risks, we identified sound IT risk 
management processes from those developed by the Software Engineering 
Institute and compared them to the Bureau's risk management practices 
for the selected projects. The areas examined included risk 
preparation, risk identification and analyses, and risk mitigation. We 
conducted our work in accordance with generally accepted government 
auditing standards. 

Background: 

The decennial census is the nation's largest, most complex survey. To 
conduct its decennial activities, the Bureau recruits, hires, and 
trains over half a million field staff based out of local census 
offices nationwide, temporarily making it one of the nation's largest 
employers. The first operation for the 2010 Census has already begun. 
Starting in January 2007, the Bureau notified state and local 
governments that it would seek their help in developing a complete 
address file through the Bureau's LUCA program. Address canvassing--a 
field operation to build a complete and accurate address list in which 
census field workers go door to door verifying and correcting addresses 
for all households and street features contained on decennial maps-- 
will begin in April 2009. One year later, the Bureau will mail census 
questionnaires to the majority of the population in anticipation of 
Census Day, April 1, 2010. Those households that do not return their 
questionnaire will be contacted by census field workers during the 
nonresponse follow-up operation to determine the number of people 
living in the housing unit on Census Day, among other information. 

In addition to these operations, the Bureau conducts other operations, 
including gathering data from residents in group quarters such as 
prisons or military bases. The Bureau also employs different 
enumeration methods in certain settings, such as remote Alaska 
enumeration, in which people living in inaccessible communities must be 
contacted in January 2010 in anticipation of the spring thaw, which 
makes travel difficult, or update/enumerate, a data collection method 
involving personal interviews that is used in communities where many 
housing units may not have typical house number-street name mailing 
addresses. 

The decennial census is conducted against a backdrop of immutable 
deadlines. The census's elaborate chain of interrelated pre-and post- 
Census Day activities is predicated upon those dates. To meet these 
mandated reporting requirements, census activities must occur at 
specific times and in the proper sequence. The Secretary of Commerce is 
legally required to (1) conduct the census on April 1 of the decennial 
year, (2) report the state population counts to the President for 
purposes of congressional apportionment by December 31 of the decennial 
year, and (3) send population tabulations to the states for purposes of 
redistricting no later than 1 year after the April 1 census date. (See 
table 1 for dates of selected key decennial activities.) 

Table 1: Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events: 

Beginning and end dates: Jan. 2007-Jan. 2010; 
Decennial activity: Local Update of Census Addresses (localities assist 
in updating address lists and maps). 

Beginning and end dates: Feb. 2006-June 2009; 
Decennial activity: 2008 Dress Rehearsal (Bureau's rehearsal of all 
planned decennial operations). 

Beginning and end dates: Jan. 2008; 
Decennial activity: Opening of 12 Regional Census Centers. 

Beginning and end dates: Oct. 2008; 
Decennial activity: Opening of 455 Local Census Offices. 

Beginning and end dates: Apr.-Sept. 2009; 
Decennial activity: Address list activities (Bureau field staff 
validate all address lists and maps). 

Beginning and end dates: Apr. 1, 2010; 
Decennial activity: Census Day. 

Beginning and end dates: Apr.-July 2010; 
Decennial activity: Nonresponse follow-up (Field staff follow-up in 
person at housing units of nonresponding persons). 

Beginning and end dates: Dec. 31, 2010; 
Decennial activity: Delivery of apportionment counts to the President. 

Beginning and end dates: Mar. 31, 2011; 
Decennial activity: Complete delivery of redistricting data to states. 

Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data. 

[End of table] 

The Bureau estimates that it will spend about $3 billion in information 
technology investments to support collections, processing and 
dissemination of census data and will be undertaking four major systems 
acquisitions--totaling about $2 billion. The major acquisitions include 
the Decennial Response Integration System (DRIS); Field Data Collection 
Automation (FDCA) program, which includes the handheld mobile computing 
devices to be used by the Bureau's temporary field staff; Data Access 
and Dissemination System (DADS II); and Master Address File/ 
Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing Accuracy 
Improvement Project (MTAIP) system. The four systems were planned to be 
available for the Dress Rehearsal so that their functionality could be 
tested in an operational environment. (See table 2.) 

Table 2: Major Information Technology Contracts: 

Contract: DRIS; 
Contractor: Lockheed Martin Corporation; 
Contract purpose: Providing a solution for data capture and respondent 
assistance; 
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): More than $500; 
Award dates: October 2005. 

Contract: FDCA; 
Contractor: Harris Corporation; 
Contract purpose: Providing automated resources for supporting field 
data collection, including the provision of mobile computing devices 
used by enumerators; 
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): $600; 
Award dates: March 2006. 

Contract: DADS II; 
Contractor: To be determined; 
Contract purpose: Develop a replacement for legacy tabulation and 
dissemination system; 
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): To be determined; 
Award dates: Delayed by 1 year to September 2007. 

Contract: MTAIP; 
Contractor: Harris Corporation; 
Contract purpose: Modernizing the system which provides the address 
list, maps, and other geographic support services for the Census and 
other Bureau surveys; 
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): $209; 
Award dates: June 2002. 

Source: GAO analysis of Census Bureau documents. 

[End of table] 

In June 2005, we reported on the Bureau's progress in five information 
technology (IT) areas--investment management, systems development/ 
management, enterprise architecture management, information security, 
and human capital.[Footnote 1] These areas are important because they 
have substantial influence on the effectiveness of organizational 
operations and, if applied effectively, can reduce the risk of cost and 
schedule overruns, and performance shortfalls. We reported that, while 
the Bureau had many practices in place, much remained to be done to 
fully implement effective IT management capabilities. We made several 
recommendations to improve the Bureau's management. 

Subsequently, in March 2006, we testified on the Bureau's acquisition 
and management of two key information technology system acquisitions 
for the 2010 Census--FDCA and DRIS.[Footnote 2] We reported on the 
Bureau's progress in implementing acquisitions and management 
capabilities for these initiatives. To effectively manage major IT 
programs, organizations should use sound acquisition and management 
processes, minimize risk, and thereby maximize chances for success. 
Such processes include project and acquisition planning, solicitation, 
requirement development and management, and risk management. We 
reported that, while the project offices responsible for these two 
contracts have carried out initial acquisition management activities, 
neither office had the full set of capabilities they needed to 
effectively manage the acquisitions, including a full risk management 
process. We also made recommendations for the Bureau to implement key 
activities needed to effectively manage acquisitions. The Bureau agreed 
with the recommendations but is still in the process of implementing 
them. 

2010 Comprehensive Project Plan with Updated Cost Information Still Not 
Firm: 

Careful planning and monitoring are key to successfully managing a 
complex undertaking such as the decennial census. In January 2004, we 
recommended that the Bureau develop a comprehensive integrated project 
plan. Specifically, we recommended that such a project plan be updated 
as needed and include: (1) detailed milestones that identify all 
significant interrelationships; (2) itemized estimated costs of each 
component, including a sensitivity analysis, and an explanation of 
significant changes in the assumptions on which these costs are based; 
(3) key goals translated into measurable, operational terms to provide 
meaningful guidance for planning and measuring progress; and (4) risk 
and mitigation plans that fully address all significant potential 
risks. We reported that although some of this information is available 
piecemeal, to facilitate a thorough, independent review of the Bureau's 
plans and hold the agency accountable for results, having a single, 
comprehensive document would be important. In May 2007, we met with 
Bureau officials to discuss the status of the 2010 project plan. At 
that time officials indicated that they planned to finalize the project 
plan over the next several months. We look forward to reviewing the 
2010 Census project plan once it becomes available, and we will 
continue to monitor the Bureau's planning efforts. 

Among the elements of that plan, we specifically recommended that the 
Bureau itemize the then-estimated $11.3 billion in costs for completing 
key activities for the upcoming decennial census. However, in June 2006 
before this subcommittee, we testified that the Bureau's $11.3 billion 
life-cycle cost estimate for the 2010 Census lacked timely and complete 
supporting data. Specifically, the supporting data of the estimate were 
not timely because the data did not contain the most current 
information from testing and evaluation, and were not complete because 
sufficient information on how changing assumptions could affect cost 
was not provided. 

In its Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Estimates, the Bureau updated its 
estimate to about $11.5 billion. According to Bureau documents, the 
estimated life-cycle cost for the entire 2010 Census remained 
relatively unchanged between 2001, when the $11.3 billion estimate 
first was released, and 2006. 

In our testimony last year, we noted that the September 2005 estimate 
was based on assumptions made in 2001 that had not been borne out by 
testing. One such assumption pertained to the testing of a new handheld 
mobile computing device that is intended to automate and streamline 
address canvassing, nonresponse follow-up, coverage measurement, and 
payroll operations. After its 2004 Census Test the Bureau found that 
local office space and staff savings of 50 percent as a result of using 
the handheld computers were not realized. Nonetheless, the 2005 
estimate continued to assume the 50 percent savings. In our view, 
revising cost estimates with the most current information allows the 
Bureau to better manage the cost of the census and make necessary 
resource trade-offs. Most recently, the Bureau tested a new prototype 
of the handheld mobile computing devices during the address canvassing 
operation of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. This experience should provide 
the Bureau additional data on productivity and space needs when using 
the new devices. 

Table 3 shows the Bureau's cost estimate released in June 2006. Based 
on the table, most spending will occur between fiscal years 2008 
through 2013. 

Table 3: Bureau's Revised June 2006 Estimate of Life-cycle Costs for 
the 2010 Decennial Census Program (nominal year dollars, in millions): 

Program Component: American Community Survey; 
FY 2001 Enacted: $23.6; 
FY 2002 Enacted: $29.0; 
FY 2003 Enacted: $56.8; 
FY 2004 Enacted: $64.1; 
FY 2005 Enacted: $144.1; 
FY 2006 Enacted: $167.8; 
FY 2007 Request: $179.8; 
Subtotal FY01-07: $665.2; 
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $1,036.7; 
Total (est.) $1,701.9. 

Program Component: MAF/TIGER Enhancements Program; 
FY 2001 Enacted: $0; 
FY 2002 Enacted: $15.0; 
FY 2003 Enacted: $47.0; 
FY 2004 Enacted: $82.4; 
FY 2005 Enacted: $81.2; 
FY 2006 Enacted: $78.8; 
FY 2007 Request: $73.7; 
Subtotal FY01-07: $378.1; 
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $156.2; 
Total (est.) $534.3. 

Program Component: 2010 Census; 
FY 2001 Enacted: $0; 
FY 2002 Enacted: $21.0; 
FY 2003 Enacted: $41.6; 
FY 2004 Enacted: $106.0; 
FY 2005 Enacted: $163.0; 
FY 2006 Enacted: $201.2; 
FY 2007 Request: $258.3; 
Subtotal FY01-07: $791.1; 
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $8,227.3; 
Total (est.) $9,018.4. 

Program Component: Total; 
FY 2001 Enacted: $23.6; 
FY 2002 Enacted: $65.0; 
FY 2003 Enacted: $145.4; 
FY 2004 Enacted: $252.5; 
FY 2005 Enacted: $388.3; 
FY 2006 Enacted: $447.8; 
FY 2007 Request: $511.8; 
Subtotal FY01-07: $1,834.4; 
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $9,420.2; 
Total (est.) $11,254.6. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 

Note: These figures have not been audited by GAO. Moreover, the 
Bureau's updated $11.525 billion life-cycle cost estimate, as contained 
in the agency's Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Estimates to the Congress, 
assumes cost increases in the American Community Survey, Data Access 
and Dissemination System, and Field Data Collection Automation. 

[End of table] 

Mr. Chairman, as you can see, given the projected increase in spending, 
it will be imperative that the Bureau effectively manage the 2010 
Census, as the risk exists that the actual, final cost of the census 
could be considerably higher than anticipated. Indeed, this was the 
case for the 2000 Census, when the Bureau's initial cost projections 
proved to be too low because of such factors as unforeseen operational 
problems or changes to the fundamental design. For example, the Bureau 
estimated that the 2000 Census would cost around $4 billion if sampling 
was used, and a traditional census without sampling would cost around 
$5 billion. However, the final price tag for the 2000 Census (without 
sampling) was over $6.5 billion, a 30 percent increase in cost. Large 
federal deficits and other fiscal challenges underscore the importance 
of managing the cost of the census, while promoting an accurate, timely 
census. 

At the request of the House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee 
on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies, we are reviewing 
the life-cycle cost estimate of the 2010 Census to determine whether it 
is comprehensive, credible, accurate, and adequately supported. 

2008 Dress Rehearsal Experience Points to Further Testing of Software 
for LUCA Operations: 

During the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, the 
Bureau tested a prototype of the handheld computers that it intends to 
use for 2010. The devices are a keystone to the reengineered census 
because they allow the Bureau to automate operations, and eliminate the 
need to print millions of paper questionnaires and maps used by 
temporary field staff to conduct address canvassing and nonresponse 
follow-up as well as to manage the payroll for field staff. Automating 
operations allows the Bureau to reduce the cost of operations; thus, it 
is critical that the risks surrounding the use of the handheld devices 
be closely monitored and effectively managed to ensure their success. 

However, during the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress 
Rehearsal, we observed some technical difficulties with the handheld 
mobile computing device. We observed that it took an inordinate amount 
of time for field staff using the handheld devices to link multiple 
units to one mapspot, which occurs when listing units within apartment 
buildings. In North Carolina, for example, we observed a field staffer 
take 2 hours to verify 16 addresses in one apartment building. The 
device was also slow to process addresses that were a part of a large 
assignment area. These inefficiencies affect productivity and 
ultimately the cost of the census. Over the next several weeks, we will 
be working with the Bureau to understand the root cause of the problems 
we observed. Given the lateness in the testing cycle, the Bureau now 
runs the risk that if problems do emerge, little time will be left to 
develop, test, and incorporate refinements to the handheld devices 
before 2010. 

To date, the Bureau, in its 2008 Dress Rehearsal, has completed nearly 
all LUCA activities, and while the Bureau has taken many steps to 
improve LUCA since 2000, additional steps could be taken to address 
possible new challenges. To reduce participant workload and burden, the 
Bureau provided a longer period for reviewing and updating LUCA 
materials; provided options for submitting materials for the LUCA 
program; and created MAF/TIGER[Footnote 3] Partnership Software (MTPS), 
which is designed to assist LUCA program participants in reviewing and 
updating address and map data. This software will enable users to 
import address lists and maps for comparison to the Bureau's data and 
participate at the same time in both the LUCA and another geographic 
program, the Boundary and Annexation Survey.[Footnote 4] However, 
during the Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau tested MTPS with only one local 
government. The Bureau also planned improvements to LUCA by offering 
specialized workshops for informational and technical training and 
supplementing the workshops with new computer-based training. However, 
the Bureau did not test its computer-based training software in the 
Dress Rehearsal.[Footnote 5] Properly executed user-based methods for 
software testing can give the truest estimate of the extent to which 
real users can employ a software application effectively, efficiently, 
and satisfactorily. In June 2007, we recommended the Bureau better 
assess the usability of the MTPS and test the computer-based training 
software with local governments. The Bureau has agreed to do so, and in 
August 2007 is expected to provide an action plan for how it will 
implement this recommendation. 

Additionally, not all participants will rely on the MTPS. For these 
participants, the Bureau could do more to help them use their own 
software. We found that participants in the LUCA Dress Rehearsal 
experienced problems converting files from the Bureau's format to their 
respective applications; our survey of participants in the LUCA Dress 
Rehearsal showed that the majority of respondents had, to some extent, 
problems with file conversions to appropriate formats. For example, one 
local official noted that it took him 2 days to determine how to 
convert the Bureau's files. At present, the Bureau does not know how 
many localities that participate in LUCA will opt not to use MTPS, but 
those localities may face the same challenges faced by participants in 
the LUCA Dress Rehearsal. In response to our recommendations, the 
Bureau agreed to disseminate instructions on file conversion on its Web 
site and provide instructions to help-desk callers. 

Bureau's Plans for Greater Use of Automation and Technology Demand 
Greater Risk Management: 

The Bureau's reengineered approach for the 2010 Census involves greater 
use of automation, which offers the prospect of greater efficiency and 
effectiveness; however, these actions also introduce new risks. The 
automation of key census processes involves an extensive reliance on 
contractors. Consequently, contract oversight and management become a 
key challenge to a successful census. We are (1) determining the status 
and plans for DRIS, FDCA, MTAIP, and DADS II (including cost, schedule, 
and performance); and (2) assessing whether the bureau is adequately 
managing risks associated with these key contracts including efforts to 
integrate systems. We are scheduled to report the results of our work 
by September 2007. Effective risk management includes identifying and 
analyzing risks, assigning resources, and developing risk mitigation 
plans and milestones for key mitigation deliverables, briefing senior- 
level managers on high-priority risks, and tracking risks to closure. 
Risk management is an important project management discipline to ensure 
that among other things, key technologies are delivered on time, within 
budget, and with the promised functionality. 

The Bureau has awarded three of four 2010 decennial census contracts: 
MTAIP (June 2002), DRIS (October 2005), and FDCA (March 2006). For DADS 
II, the Bureau delayed the contract award by 1 year (the contract is 
now scheduled to be awarded in September 2007). In March 2006, Bureau 
officials said that this 1-year delay occurred to gain a clearer sense 
of budget priorities before initiating the request for proposal 
process. 

Our preliminary results on the status and plans for the three awarded 
2010 decennial census system contracts show that the contractors are 
making mixed progress in meeting cost, schedule, and functional 
performance. Specifically, the DRIS, FDCA, and MTAIP contractors are 
delivering products on schedule. For example, as of March 2007, the 
MTAIP contractor delivered 2,513 of the 3,232 improved county map files 
to the Bureau's repository of the location of every street, boundary, 
and other map features (known as the TIGER database). In addition, the 
DRIS contractor has delivered certain program management documents on 
schedule, including the External Interface Control document, which 
documents the interfaces between DRIS and the other 2010 Census 
systems, such as FDCA. Also, the FDCA contractors provided the 1,400 
handheld mobile computing devices on schedule for conducting the May 
2007 address canvassing for the Dress Rehearsal sites in North Carolina 
and California. 

Concerning costs, two projects--DRIS and MTAIP--are in line with the 
projected budget. For example, as of March 2007, of the $66 million 
planned for DRIS during this period, the Bureau has obligated $37 
million and disbursed $19 million with the project 36 percent 
completed. Further, our analyses of cost performance reports show no 
projected cost overrun for DRIS by the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. However, 
the FDCA project is projected to experience cost overruns by the 2008 
Dress Rehearsal. Our analyses of earned value management (EVM)[Footnote 
6] data show a projected FDCA cost overrun by between $17 million and 
$22 million, with the most likely cost overrun being about $18 million. 
According to the contractor, the overrun is occurring primarily due to 
the increase in system requirements. We are concerned that this is an 
indication of additional cost increases that are forthcoming, given 
requirements growth associated with FDCA. 

The Bureau has delayed delivering some key functionality that was 
expected to be delivered for the Dress Rehearsal. For example, some key 
functionality expected to be delivered with DRIS contract including the 
2010 Census telephone assistance system has been delayed until fiscal 
year 2009. The Bureau has stated that it will not have a robust 
telephone assistance system in place for the Dress Rehearsal. The 
Bureau has also delayed selecting data capture center sites for the 
2010 Census, building-out data capture facilities (including physical 
security, hardware, furniture, and telecommunications), and recruiting 
and hiring data capture center staff. According to the Bureau, this 
delay will affect areas, such as hardware installation and staffing 
training. Further, the Dress Rehearsal will not include all collection 
forms for the 2010 Census. According to project team officials, changes 
to the DRIS original functionality were due to the Bureau's fiscal year 
2006 budget constraints, and therefore changed their priorities for the 
2008 Dress Rehearsal. 

The importance of testing is particularly important, since systems and 
functionality planned for the 2010 Census will not be available for the 
2008 Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau has plans to conduct system tests, 
such as the interfaces between FDCA and DRIS. The Bureau has not 
finalized plans for other tests to be performed for the 2010 Census, 
such as end-to-end testing. End-to-end testing is performed to verify 
that a defined set of interrelated systems that collectively support an 
organizational core business function interoperate as intended in an 
operational environment. The failure to conduct end-to-end testing 
increases the risks of systems performance failure occurring during the 
2010 Census operations. 

Our preliminary results also show that the Bureau's project teams have 
made progress in risk management activities, but weaknesses remain. 
According to the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) Capability 
Maturity Model® Integration (CMMISM), the purpose of risk management is 
to identify potential problems before they occur so that risk-handling 
activities can be executed as needed to mitigate adverse 
impacts.[Footnote 7] Risk management activities can be divided into key 
areas, including identifying and analyzing risks, mitigating risks, and 
executive oversight. The discipline of risk management is important to 
help ensure that projects are delivered on time, within budget, and 
with the promised functionality. It is especially important for the 
2010 Census, given the immovable deadline. 

Our preliminary results on the Bureau's risk management processes show 
that the project teams have performed many practices associated with 
establishing sound and capable risk management processes. Specifically, 
most of the projects (DRIS, FDCA, and DADS II) had developed a risk 
management strategy to identify the methods or tools to be used for 
risk identification, risk analysis and prioritization, and risk 
mitigation. However, some projects did not fully identify risks, 
establish mitigation plans that identified planned actions and 
milestones, and report risk status to higher level officials. 

* All four projects were identifying and analyzing risks, but one 
project team was not adequately performing this activity. As of May 
2007, the most significant risks for DRIS included the possibility of a 
continuing budget resolution for fiscal year 2008, new system security 
regulations, and disagreement between the Bureau and contractor on 
functionality implementation. For FDCA, as of May 2007, the most 
significant risks included insufficient funding, late development of 
training materials, and untimely completion of IT Security 
Certification and Accreditation. However, as part of our ongoing work, 
we question the completeness of the reported risks. For example, 
although the FDCA project had experienced a major increase in the 
number of requirements, the project team did not identify this as a 
significant risk. In addition, the project office did not identify any 
risks associated with using the handheld mobile computing devices. 

* All four projects are developing risk mitigation plans as a response 
strategy for the handling of risks, but three project teams (DADS II, 
FDCA, and MTAIP) developed mitigation plans that were often untimely or 
had incomplete activities and milestones. For example, although 
mitigation plans were developed for all high-level risks, they did not 
always identify milestones for implementing mitigating activities. In 
addition, the FDCA project has yet to provide any evidence of 
mitigation plans to handle their medium-level risks as described in 
their risk management strategy. 

* Two projects (MTAIP and FDCA) have yet to provide evidence that risks 
were reported regularly to higher-level Department of Commerce and 
Bureau officials. For example, although both project teams had met with 
Commerce and Bureau officials to discuss the status of the projects, 
the meetings did not include discussions about the status of risks. 

The failure to develop timely and complete mitigation plans increases 
the project's exposure to risks and reduces the project team's ability 
to effectively control and manage risks during the work effort. 
Further, failure to report a project's risks to higher level officials 
reduces the visibility of risks to executives that should be playing a 
role in mitigating them. Until the project teams implement effective 
and consistent risk management processes, the Bureau faces increased 
risks that system acquisition projects will incur cost overruns, 
schedule delays, and performance shortfalls. 

Bureau Is Designing Decennial Activities in the Geographic Area 
Affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but Needs to Finalize Plans 
and Related Milestones: 

As part of our evaluation of the Bureau's LUCA Dress Rehearsal, we 
visited the localities along the Gulf Coast to assess the effect that 
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might have on decennial activities in these 
geographic areas, and we found that the damage and devastation of these 
hurricanes will likely affect the Bureau's LUCA program and possibly 
other operations. The Bureau has begun to take steps toward addressing 
these issues by developing proposed actions. However, the Bureau has 
not yet finalized plans and milestones related to changes in actions 
for modifying address canvassing or subsequent operations in hurricane- 
affected areas. 

In visiting localities along the Gulf Coast earlier this year, we 
observed that the effects of the hurricanes are still visible 
throughout the Gulf Coast region. Hurricane Katrina alone destroyed or 
made uninhabitable an estimated 300,000 homes; in New Orleans, local 
officials reported that Hurricane Katrina damaged an estimated 123,000 
housing units. Such changes in housing unit stock continue to present 
challenges to the implementation of the 2010 LUCA Program and address 
canvassing operations in the Gulf Coast region. Many officials of local 
governments we visited in hurricane-affected areas said they have 
identified numerous housing units that have been or will be demolished 
as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and subsequent 
deterioration. Conversely, many local governments estimate that there 
is new development of housing units in their respective jurisdictions. 
The localities we interviewed in the Gulf Coast region indicated that 
such changes in the housing stock of their jurisdictions are unlikely 
to subside before local governments begin reviewing and updating 
materials for the Bureau's 2010 LUCA Program--in August 2007.[Footnote 
8] As a result, local governments in hurricane-affected areas may be 
unable to fully capture reliable information about their address lists 
before the beginning of LUCA. 

The mixed condition of the housing stock in the Gulf Coast could 
decrease productivity rates during address canvassing. We observed that 
hurricane-affected areas have many neighborhoods with abandoned and 
vacant properties mixed in with occupied housing units. Bureau field 
staff conducting address canvassing in these areas may have decreased 
productivity due to the additional time necessary to distinguish 
between abandoned, vacant, and occupied housing units. We also observed 
many areas where lots included a permanent structure with undetermined 
occupancy as well as a trailer. Bureau field staff may be presented 
with the challenge of determining whether a residence or a trailer (see 
fig. 1), or both, are occupied. Another potential issue is that, due to 
continuing changes in the condition in the housing stock, housing units 
that are deemed uninhabitable during address canvassing may be occupied 
on Census Day, April 1, 2010. Bureau officials said that they recognize 
there are issues with identifying uninhabitable structures in hurricane-
affected zones. Further, workforce shortages may also pose significant 
problems for the Bureau's hiring efforts for address canvassing. The 
effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused a major shift in 
population away from the hurricane-affected areas, especially in 
Louisiana. This migration displaced many low-wage workers. Should this 
continue, it could affect the availability of such workers for address 
canvassing and other decennial census operations. 

Figure 1: Trailers in Front of Damaged Housing Units in New Orleans, 
Louisiana: 

[See PDF for image] 

Source: GAO (January 2007). 

[End of figure] 

In June 2006, we recommended that the Bureau develop plans (prior to 
the start of the 2010 LUCA Program in August 2007) to assess whether 
new procedures, additional resources, or local partnerships, may be 
required to update the MAF/TIGER database along the Gulf Coast--in the 
areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.[Footnote 9] The Bureau 
consulted with state and regional officials from the Gulf Coast on how 
to make LUCA as successful as possible, and held additional promotional 
workshops for geographic areas identified by the Bureau as needing 
additional assistance. 

The Bureau has also considered changes to address canvassing and 
subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region. For example, Bureau 
officials stated that they recognize issues with identifying 
uninhabitable structures in hurricane-affected zones and, as a result, 
that they may need to change procedures for address canvassing. The 
Bureau is still brainstorming ideas, including the possibility of using 
its "Update/Enumerate"[Footnote 10] operation in areas along the Gulf 
Coast. Bureau officials also said that they may adjust training for 
field staff conducting address canvassing in hurricane-affected areas 
to help them distinguish between abandoned, vacant, and occupied 
housing units. Without proper training, field staff can make errors and 
will not operate as efficiently.[Footnote 11] 

The Bureau's plans for how it may adjust address canvassing operations 
in the Gulf Coast region can also have implications for subsequent 
operations. For example, instructing its field staff to be as inclusive 
as possible in completing address canvassing could cause increased 
efforts to contact nonrespondents because the Bureau could send 
questionnaires to housing units that could be vacant on Census Day. In 
terms of the Bureau's workforce in the Gulf Coast region, Bureau 
officials also recognize the potential difficulty of attracting field 
staff, and have recommended that the Bureau be prepared to pay hourly 
wage rates for future decennial field staff that are considerably 
higher than usual. However, Bureau officials stated that there are "no 
concrete plans" to implement changes to address canvassing or 
subsequent decennial operations in the Gulf Coast region. 

Mr. Chairman, the Bureau faces formidable challenges in successfully 
implementing a redesigned decennial. It must also overcome significant 
challenges of a demographic and socioeconomic nature due to the 
nation's increasing diversity in language, ethnicity, households, and 
housing type, as well a reluctance of the population to participate in 
the census. The need to enumerate in the areas devastated by Hurricanes 
Katrina and Rita is one more significant difficulty the Bureau faces. 
We have stated in the past, and believe still, that the Bureau's 
reengineering effort, if effectively implemented, can help control 
costs and improve cost effectiveness and efficiency. Yet, there is more 
that the Bureau can do in managing risks for the 2010 Census. 

The Dress Rehearsal represents a critical stage in preparing for Census 
2010--a time when the Bureau's plans will be tested as close to census- 
like conditions as is possible. This is a time when the Congress, the 
Department of Commerce, and others should have the information needed 
to know how well the design is working. This is a time for making 
transparent the risks that the Bureau must manage to ensure a 
successful census. We have highlighted some of these risks today. 

First, the Bureau's planning and reporting of milestones and estimated 
costs could be made more useful. Second, the performance of key 
contractors needs more oversight. Third, the Bureau can build on 
lessons learned early in the Dress Rehearsal by further testing new 
software that will help localities participating in the LUCA program. 
The functionality and usability of the handheld computing device--a key 
piece of hardware in the reengineered census--also bears watching. If, 
after the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, the handheld computers are found to not 
be reliable, the Bureau could be faced with the remote but daunting 
possibility of having to revert, in whole or in part, to the costly, 
paper-based census used in 2000. Finally, the Bureau must complete 
plans for ensuring an accurate population count in areas affected by 
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. All told, these areas continue to call for 
risk mitigation plans by the Bureau and careful monitoring and 
oversight by the Commerce Department, Office of Management and Budget, 
the Congress, GAO, and other key stakeholders. As in the past, we look 
forward to supporting this subcommittee's oversight efforts to promote 
a timely, complete, accurate, and cost-effective census. 

Mr. Chairman that concludes our statement. We would be glad to answer 
any questions you and the committee members may have. 

[End of section] 

Related GAO Products: 

2010 Census: Census Bureau Is Making Progress on the Local Update of 
Census Addresses Program, but Improvements Are Needed. GAO-07-1063T. 
Washington, D.C.: June 26, 2007. 

2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Improved the Local Update of Census 
Addresses Program, but Challenges Remain. GAO-07-736. Washington, D.C.: 
June 14, 2007. 

2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Refine Recruiting and Hiring Efforts 
and Enhance Training of Temporary Field Staff. GAO-07-361. Washington, 
D.C.: April 27, 2007. 

2010 Census: Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology 
Acquisitions, Temporary Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration 
Require Attention. GAO-07-779T. Washington, D.C.: April 24, 2007. 

2010 Census: Redesigned Approach Holds Promise, but Census Bureau Needs 
to Annually Develop and Provide a Comprehensive Project Plan to Monitor 
Costs. GAO-06-1009T. Washington, D.C.: July 27, 2006. 

2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to Resolve Long-
standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges. GAO-06-272. 
Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006. 

2010 Census: Costs and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated 
with Mitigation Plans in Place. GAO-06-822T. Washington, D.C.: June 6, 
2006. 

2010 Census: Census Bureau Generally Follows Selected Leading 
Acquisition Planning Practices, but Continued Management Attentions Is 
Needed to Help Ensure Success. GAO-06-277. Washington, D.C.: May 18, 
2006. 

Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key 
2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done. GAO-06-444T. Washington, 
D.C.: March 1, 2006. 

2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress. GAO- 
06-465T. Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006. 

Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented Many 
Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed. GAO-05-661. 
Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005. 

2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges Need 
Prompt Resolution. GAO-05-09. Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005. 

Data Quality: Census Bureau Needs to Accelerate Efforts to Develop and 
Implement Data Quality Review Standards. GAO-05-86. Washington, D.C.: 
November 17, 2004. 

Census 2000: Design Choices Contributed to Inaccuracies in Coverage 
Evaluation Estimates. GAO-05-71. Washington, D.C.: November 12, 2004. 

American Community Survey: Key Unresolved Issues. GAO-05-82. 
Washington, D.C.: October 8, 2004. 

2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Decennial 
Census Would Not Be Cost-Effective. GAO-04-898. Washington, D.C.: 
August 19, 2004. 

2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear Policy 
Direction. GAO-04-470. Washington, D.C.: May 21, 2004. 

2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon. GAO-04- 
37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004. 

Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting Migrant and 
Seasonal Farm Workers. GAO-03-605. Washington, D.C.: July 3, 2003. 

Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Hispanic 
Subgroup Data Need Refinement. GAO-03-228. Washington, D.C.: January 
17, 2003. 

Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the 
Homeless and Others Without Conventional Housing Need Refinement. GAO- 
03-227. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003. 

2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010 
Census. GAO-03-40. Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2002. 

The American Community Survey: Accuracy and Timeliness Issues. GAO-02- 
956R. Washington, D.C.: September 30, 2002. 

FOOTNOTES 

[1] GAO, Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has 
Implemented Many Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed, GAO-
05-661 (Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005). 

[2] GAO, Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management 
of Key 2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done, GAO-06-444T 
(Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1, 2006). 

[3] The Bureau's address list is known as the Master Address File 
(MAF); its associated geographic information system is called the 
Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (TIGER) 
database. TIGER is a registered trademark of the U.S. Census Bureau. 

[4] The Bureau conducts the Boundary and Annexation Survey annually to 
collect information about selected defined geographic areas. This 
survey is used to update information about the legal boundaries and 
names of all governmental units in the United States. 

[5] Respondents to our survey ranked computer-based training higher 
than classroom training, in terms of being "extremely" or "very" 
useful. Additionally, local officials told us that this training was 
more convenient for them because they need not leave their offices or 
adjust their schedules to learn how the LUCA program works. 

[6] EVM is a project management tool that integrates the investment 
scope of work with schedule and cost elements for investment planning 
and control. The method compares the value of work accomplished during 
a given period with that of work expected in the period. Differences in 
expectations are measured in both cost and schedule variances. OMB 
requires agencies to use EVM as part of their performance-based 
management system for any investment under development or with system 
improvements under way. 

[7] The CMMI is SEI's process model, which describes how to develop 
processes needed for software development and specific practices that 
organizations should follow. 

[8] The period for local review and update of addresses and maps for 
the 2010 LUCA Program is August 2007-March 2008. 

[9] GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to 
Resolve Long-standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges, GAO-
06-272 (Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006), and GAO, 2010 Census: Costs 
and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated with Mitigation Plans 
in Place, GAO-06-822T (Washington, D.C.: June 6, 2006). 

[10] In an "Update/Enumerate" operation, interviewers enumerate a 
housing unit and update address registers and census maps at the time 
of their visit. 

[11] GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Refine Recruiting and 
Hiring Efforts and Enhance Training of Temporary Field Staff, GAO-07-
361 (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27, 2007).

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