Summary

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued regulations in the 1980s to strengthen the flammability standards for materials used in aircraft cabin interiors. In establishing the stricter standards, FAA anticipated that nearly 85 percent of the U.S. aircraft fleet would comply by the year 2000 and indicated that it would consider proposing a mandatory retrofit requirement if all airlines did not meet the standards as anticipated. At the start of 1992, about 11 percent of the more than 4,200 aircraft in the fleet had complied with the standards. Although the number of newly built aircraft meeting the standards will increase each year, no airline has replaced or plans to completely replace the interior components of aircraft that were in service before the stricter standards went into effect. As a result, 45 percent of the aircraft fleet at the end of the decade may not meet the new flammability standards; the entire fleet is not expected to comply with the stricter flammability standards until 2018. The total cost to the airlines to modify aircraft not meeting the standards would be several billion dollars and would average more than $1 million per aircraft. FAA estimates that nine to 16 lives could be saved each year if all aircraft met the stricter standards. If the Department of Transportation's current value of $1.5 million for a human life were used to extrapolate a value for the potential fatalities avoided, then up to $110 million could potentially be saved by modifying aircraft to meet the standards. In the event, however, of one or two major crashes in which hundreds of people are killed, the potential savings could be much higher depending how high a value was used for a human life.

GAO found that: (1) FAA expected that by 2000, 85 percent of the airlines' fleets would be in compliance with flammability standards; (2) by 1992, 470 of the 4,200 aircraft were in compliance with FAA standards; (3) because airlines lacked plans to retrofit existing in-service aircraft, the entire airline fleet is not expected to meet flammability standards until 2018; (4) the proportion of aircraft meeting FAA standards is expected to increase as older aircraft are replaced with newer aircraft; (5) airlines are more likely to refurbish and reinstall original cabin component parts, rather than replacing them with parts meeting FAA flammability standards, during mandatory heavy maintenance inspections; (6) the estimated total cost for replacing existing aircraft cabin interiors would decrease annually from about $3.8 billion in 1994 to $2.5 billion in 1999 because of increased replacement of older aircraft; and (7) if all aircraft are refitted to meet the FAA flammability standards, between 75 and 100 fatalities could be avoided and up to $80 million to $110 million could be saved by 2018, depending upon the severity of the accident and the average value placed on a human life.