Summary
In its December 2001 Nuclear Posture Review, the Department of Defense (DOD) created a New Triad by significantly changing its definition and conceptual framework for its strategic capabilities to include not only the nuclear capabilities of the old Triad that consisted of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers, but also the capabilities of offensive conventional strike forces, active and passive defenses, and a revitalized defense infrastructure. GAO was asked to determine the extent to which DOD has (1) identified the projected spending for the New Triad in its Future Years Defense Program (FYDP) and (2) developed a long-term investment approach to identify and manage future spending for the New Triad.
Although DOD broadened its definition of strategic capabilities during the 2001 Nuclear Posture Review and established a New Triad, it has not developed a way to use the FYDP to identify the total amount it plans to spend to sustain and enhance New Triad capabilities during the next few years. The FYDP is one of the principal tools available to help inform DOD and Congress about spending plans for the next 5 years and to make informed decisions in light of competing priorities. While DOD has identified some New Triad spending included in the FYDP, it has not identified all associated spending. GAO's notional analysis of New Triad-related programs in the FYDP through 2009 shows that overall spending could be significantly greater than DOD's limited analyses have identified to date. According to DOD officials, DOD has not fully identified spending in the FYDP because of the diversity and broad scope of the concept. A mechanism for aggregating FYDP data, known as a "virtual major force program," could help DOD address these obstacles and provide the Secretary of Defense and Congress with better visibility into overall DOD spending plans for the New Triad. DOD also faces long-term affordability challenges in funding the New Triad. However, it has not developed an overarching and integrated long-term investment approach to identify the projected resource requirements and funding timelines to acquire and sustain New Triad capabilities beyond the period of time covered by FYDP. Long-term capital investment planning is an important tool to help organizations establish priorities and develop future budgets. DOD is likely to face significant affordability challenges in the long term in deciding the mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities needed to implement the vision of the New Triad, as existing nuclear weapons platforms begin to reach the end of their lives within the next 15 years and missile defense capabilities are expanding. While DOD has identified some near-term investments, its investment plans are incomplete and it lacks a comprehensive strategy for developing a long-term plan.
Recommendations
Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change
from "In process" to "Implemented" or "Not implemented" based on our follow up work.
Director:
Team:
Phone:
John H. Pendleton
Government Accountability Office: Defense Capabilities and Management
(202) 512-4402
Recommendations for Executive Action
Recommendation: To strengthen DOD's implementation of the New Triad and provide greater transparency of resources that are being applied to developing, acquiring, and sustaining the needed capabilities, the Secretary of Defense should direct the Director, Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation, in consultation with the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), to develop and obtain approval of a comprehensive list of program elements in the FYDP, which support activities for developing, acquiring, and sustaining New Triad capabilities.
Agency Affected: Department of Defense
Status: In process
Comments: DOD did not concur with this recommendation and does not plan to implement it.
Recommendation: To strengthen DOD's implementation of the New Triad and provide greater transparency of resources that are being applied to developing, acquiring, and sustaining the needed capabilities, the Secretary of Defense should direct the Director, Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation, in consultation with the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), to modify the FYDP to establish a virtual major force program for the New Triad by creating new data fields that would clearly identify and allow aggregation of New Triad-related program elements to provide increased visibility of the resources allocated for New Triad activities.
Agency Affected: Department of Defense
Status: In process
Comments: DOD did not concur with this recommendation and does not plan to implement it.
Recommendation: To strengthen DOD's implementation of the New Triad and provide greater transparency of resources that are being applied to developing, acquiring, and sustaining the needed capabilities, the Secretary of Defense should direct the Director, Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation, in consultation with the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), to report each year the funding levels for New Triad activities and capabilities in the department's summary FYDP report to Congress. The Secretary of Defense should direct that these three actions be completed at or about the time when the President's budget for fiscal year 2007 is submitted to Congress.
Agency Affected: Department of Defense
Status: In process
Comments: DOD did not concur with this recommendation and does not plan to implement it.
Recommendation: To strengthen DOD's implementation of the New Triad and provide greater transparency of resources that are being applied to developing, acquiring, and sustaining the needed capabilities, the Secretary of Defense should direct the Under Secretaries of Defense for Policy and Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics to develop an overarching and integrated long-term investment approach for the New Triad that provides decision makers with information about future joint requirements, projected resources, spending priorities and trade-offs, milestones, and funding timelines. As part of developing and implementing this approach, DOD should leverage the analyses, assessments, and other information prepared under the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System process. The Secretary of Defense should direct that development of a long-term investment approach be completed in time for it to be considered in the department's preparation of its submission for the President's budget for fiscal years 2008 and 2009 and be updated, as needed, to adapt to changing circumstances.
Agency Affected: Department of Defense
Status: In process
Comments: As of September 2006, the Office of the Secretary of Defense indicated to the DOD-IG that it planned to examine capabilities and aspects of the New Triad, within the context of the Defense Policy Goal (assure, dissuade, deter, and defeat), as these capabilities might develop over the next decades. The Office further indicated to the DOD-IG that it intended to prepare a product that will be used to inform decision makers as they consider investment priorities and structure programs to achieve capabilities in an efficient manner. The milestone for completing this action was set as July 2007. However, on 4/16/08, DOD-IG told GAO that it had not received an update from the Office of the Secretary of Defense on the status of this effort.
