Jump to main content.

Environmental Futures

Globe in hands signifying environmental futures
Events of Interest

For these links, you will be leaving the EPA.gov domain and entering an external link. Exit EPA

EPA's Office of Research and Development established a goal within our strategic plan "To anticipate future environmental issues." ORD's Office of Science Policy leads this goal's implementation.

This goal has three objectives, which are to:

Under this goal, we expect to identify and understand potential future risks to human health and the environment; recommend new directions for research and program management decisions; and identify innovative, cost-effective solutions and alternatives through an ongoing futures effort. This effort is not intended to predict the future, but rather, "to interpret the present in a new way - a way that makes more sense and seems more conventional the farther into the future one goes."

New Get a Life?

The Federal Government is trying to "get a life"-- a Second Life, that is. For the unitiated, Second Life is a virtual world created by Linden Labs of San Francisco (www.secondlife.com). Since it's inception, it has grown to upwards of nine million users worldwide. Agencies across the government are exploring how to establish a broader presence in Second Life. The Information Resources Management College at the National Defense University has established an interagency consortium to build a governmental presence in Second Life. As of September 2007, 20 agencies have signed on to participate. NOAA, NASA and CDC currently have "islands" that draw thousands of visitors a week. Click here for more on the story. Exit EPA

In the meantime, EPA is also very interested in pursuing opportunties in Second Life. Two reports recently published by the Wilson Center with support from the Office of Research and Development, examine the possibilities that might exist for EPA and the environment in general in Second Life. One of the reports is a general survey of corporate and government presences with recommendations for EPA and the other provides a general survey of environmental/eco-based sites and explores possibilities for market-based environmental governance structures in Second Life. The paper further examines how these activities translate to real world behavior.

Second Life Options and Opportunities for EPA in a Virtual World (PDF, 9pp., 1.02MB, about PDF)
Possibilities for Market-based Environmental Governance via Second Life (PDF, 24pp., 435KB, about PDF)

Resources

Project Horizon

Since September 2005, ORD has participated in Project Horizon which brings together USG senior executives from global affairs agencies and the National Security Council to conduct long-term, interagency strategic planning. The purpose of the project is to develop realistic interagency strategies and identify capabilities in which the USG should invest in order to prepare for the unforeseen threats and opportunities that will face the nation over the next 20 years.

Project Horizon uses a scenario-based strategic planning technique considered a best practice in both the private and public sectors. Participants jointly created a set of scenarios that served as the basis for a structured series of strategic planning workshops. Deliverables include interagency strategies that have been cross-tested across a range of potential future scenarios. Individual agencies then have the option of using the scenarios to conduct their own internal planning exercises.

Ideally, Project Horizon will yield a structured set of interagency strategies and associated implementation considerations and action plans that will fall into the following broad categories: interagency capabilities / tools; organizational models / processes; management / operational models; knowledge / skill / training requirements; and strategic planning approaches and goal frameworks. It is anticipated that Project Horizon's strategies will address a range of interagency planning issues including global security, development, trade, the environment, health, resource management, and humanitarian relief. Project Horizon also will deliver a strategic planning tool-set that will enable participating agencies to apply this methodology within their organizations and will provide the foundation for an on-going interagency strategic planning process that will inform governmental strategic planning.

The participating agencies include: Agriculture; Commerce; Defense (OSD and J5); NSC; Energy; Environmental Protection; Health and Human Services (including CDC); Homeland Security; Office of the Director of National Intelligence; Labor; Millennium Challenge Corporation; National Defense University/ITEA; State; and USAID.

In February and March of 2006, a series of strategy workshops were held in which senior representatives from the 14 Project Horizon participating agencies, as well as select external participants, will develop and test interagency strategies using the developed scenarios. During the workshop, participants will be part of an interagency planning team was asked to "live" in this world and develop an in-depth understanding of the challenges and opportunities that it presents for the US government. Each team then developed strategies to address its assigned scenario. The strategies of each team were stress-tested across the other scenarios to identify those strategies that are most "robust" (in other words, work across all scenarios).

In the Synthesis Phase the Core Team pored over 147 capabilities developed by the participants in the three strategy workshops in order to find the most robust capabilities (that would accomplish the strategic goals) to present to the Senior Principals Board for their approval in June. The list of 147 was narrowed down to 12 capabilities. The Core Team members have fleshed out the details of each capability - describing what each capability is, the strategic rationale for its development, implementation considerations, the estimated costs associated with its implementation and existing programs to support implementation. At the June Senior Principals Board Meeting, the capabilities were presented and the Board approved the most compelling proposals for implementation. The SPB will meet again in September to adopt the capabilities and determine how the group will continue to interact post-Project Horizon.

Read the article by Sid Kaplan, acting assistant secretary for resource management and chief financial officer of the State Department.

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

The Foresight and Governance Project of the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars has conducted a series of talks, radio dialogues, and TV interviews with leading thinkers on future topics of national and international concern. Exit EPA

ORD is continuing its collaboration with the Wilson Center and the Office of Air and Radiation to identify and examine the policy implications of emerging issues. Several topics to be explored include:

Acoustic Inertial Confinement Fusion or Sonofusion
Researchers have recently reported breakthroughs in acoustical inertial confinement fusion experiments that suggest it could be a practical technology for energy generation. This is an area in a very early stage of development, where prospects for success are still uncertain, but where efforts have just accelerated sharply and where success would change the whole energy picture. It would be an opportunity to engage with technology developers early on, to help make design-for-the-environment a part of the R&D process.
Sonofusion Workshop May 2006

Inexpensive, Accurate Sensor Technologies for Community Monitoring
Miniaturized sensor technologies are emerging for detecting chemicals and radiation. Their price will fall rapidly, making them widely available for a wide range of uses, from waste sites to garbage trucks and portable monitoring equipment. This would be an opportunity to assess the state of the technology and to anticipate some of the most valuable potential uses, such as community monitoring programs with near-real-time public information.
Distributed Sensing

Life Cycle Cost Accounting for Alternative Energy Options
The energy policy choices that need to be made over the decade ahead would greatly benefit from objective analyses of the full life cycle costs of alternative energy options, including economic costs, environmental impacts, and energy costs (net energy). There are people in ORD who want to pursue this kind of analysis. This would be an opportunity to convene a number of analysts from inside and outside government to discuss how this kind of analysis can best be undertaken.
Alternative Energy Options: EPA Library Scans

Biofuels Scan Futures Scan

Local Navigation

Jump to main content.