Determining Target Salinity Values for South Florida's Estuaries: The Combined Effects of Climate, Sea Level, and Water Management Practices

Project Investigator: G. Lynn Wingard Project Personnel: Thomas M. Cronin, Charles W. Holmes, Marci Marot, James Murray, William B. Schill, Ruth Ortiz, Carlos Budet, Katie Waylen, Joel Hudley Project Start Date: 2006 End Date: 2010 Recent Funding: (FY07) USGS GE PES Work Plans Project Summaries Metadata Publications

Summary

The primary objective of this project will be to provide information to CERP managers that can be used to establish target salinity values and performance measures for the estuaries and coastal ecosystems. The information provided will consider the contribution of climate, sea level rise and anthropogenic alteration on salinity values in the estuaries and coastal systems of south Florida.

The primary objective of this project will be to provide information to CERP managers that can be used to establish target salinity values and performance measures for the estuaries and coastal ecosystems. The information provided will consider the contribution of climate, sea level rise and anthropogenic alteration on salinity values in the estuaries and coastal systems of south Florida. This work will build upon previous work in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay, and information derived from the Synthesis of these data. There are four areas of focus for this project. 1) Refine our existing modern analog data set by completing analyses of modern samples collected between 1996 and 2004 and applying these improved analog data to core data compiled in the Synthesis Task. 2) Collect new cores (if necessary) within the southern estuaries to fill in information gaps identified by the land management agencies (Everglades National Park and Biscayne National Park), and by the Southern Estuaries Subteam of the Regional Evaluation Team of RECOVER. 3) Select a few sites in the transition zones to collect cores in a transect moving perpendicular to shore in order to analyze the rate of sea level rise in the region. 4) Work with our collaborators to plug all of the combined paleoecology data into linear regression models that can hindcast salinity for different parts of the system. Ultimately these efforts will lead to the ability to forecast the data and develop targets for the CERP 2050 Plan that take natural change into consideration.

Work Plans

• 2007

Project Summaries

• 2007

Metadata

• Determining Target Salinity Values for South Florida's Estuaries: The Combined Effects of Climate, Sea Level, and Water Management Practices (project metadata)

Publications

Open File Reports

• U.S. Geological Survey Science Support Strategy for Biscayne National Park and Surrounding Areas in Southeastern Florida (OFR 2007-1288, available from the U.S. Geological Survey website)