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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT13 KNHC 052101
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
2100 UTC WED NOV 05 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 4 4 5 5 8 10 20
TROP DEPRESSION 65 29 15 8 5 5 19
TROPICAL STORM 31 64 68 45 30 29 42
HURRICANE 1 3 13 43 57 56 19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 3 11 31 32 31 15
HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 8 14 15 2
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 3 9 8 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 3 2 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 40KT 50KT 65KT 75KT 75KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 4(22) X(22)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 7( 9) 8(17) 8(25) 6(31) 2(33) X(33)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
SAN ANDRES 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 2(24)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 4(25)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 7(27)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20(32) 14(46) 3(49)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 8(19) 2(21)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 15(27) 6(33)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 6(24)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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