FZUS81 KCLE 301131 ICEFBO GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 631 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2008 GENERAL FREEZE-UP OF BOTH THE HARBORS AND THE BAYS AND THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY FOR THE WINTER OF 2008-2009. THE PROTECTED HARBORS AND BAYS COULD SEE ICE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AS WATER TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS ARE HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AVERAGED 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER...NEAR NORMAL DURING THE SECOND WEEK...AND 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH. THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER EXPERIENCED A DRASTIC SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM FROM MILD EARLY PART OF THE MONTH TO A WINTER LIKE PATTERN IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE PARTS OF THE MONTH. THIS DRASTIC CHANGE ACCOUNTED FOR THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST 3 WEEKS. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. PRECIPITATION RAN ABOUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT LESS THAN NORMAL DURING THE WEEK. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKES WERE EITHER ABOUT NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOUT 70 PERCENT TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKES DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH. A SLIGHT SHIFT OCCURRED THE THIRD WEEK OF THE MONTH WITH EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS HAVING OCCURRED. PRECIPITATION WAS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WATER TEMPERATURES DIPPED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND STORMINESS THAT OCCURRED ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE LAKE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN DROPPED TO ABOUT NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE NOVEMBER. THE REST OF THE LAKES ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE MID LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 40S ON LAKE SUPERIOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON LAKE MICHIGAN. MIDDLE 40S WERE FOUND ON LAKE HURON WHILE THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WAS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE REST OF LAKE ERIE HAD WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. THE HARBOR WATER TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO EARLIER ICE FORMATION IN THESE PROTECTED AREAS. THE SIX TO TEN DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY COLDER AT THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S BY FRIDAY. THE SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM FORMING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF DECEMBER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS EXPECTED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE FORMATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PROTECTED BAYS AND HARBORS. THERE ARE NO EXTRANEOUS GLOBAL PATTERNS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE WINTER MONTHS OF 2008-2009 TO IMPACT THE LOCAL GREAT LAKES WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WINTER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAPID ICE GROWTH DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER FROM STRONG COLD AIR OUTBREAKS. IF THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN HOLDS AS EXPECTED...THEN WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BEGIN THEIR DOWNWARD MIGRATION AGAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL AID IN MIXING THE WATER TO ACCELERATE COOLING OF THE WATER TEMPERATURES ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE FREEZING DEGREE DAYS WERE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL AS OF NOVEMBER 28TH 2008. THIS...ONCE AGAIN...IS DUE TO THE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS THE GREAT LAKES EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. FREEZING DEGREE DAYS IN THE WESTERN LAKES WERE ABOUT 50 TO 100 FREEZING DEGREE DAYS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT CHICAGO AND LAKE ERIE THE DEGREE DAYS WERE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREE DAYS ABOVE NORMAL. TYPICALLY...OVER THE EASTERN LAKES...THERE ARE NO FREEZING DEGREE DAYS AT THIS POINT. ICE FORMATION IS DETERMINED BY TWO FACTORS--THE AMOUNT OF HEAT STORED IN THE WATER FROM THE SUMMER AND HOW FAST THAT HEAT CAN BE REMOVED BY ARCTIC OUTBREAKS OF POLAR AIR AND HIGH WINDS. LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS DO NOT CONSIDER THE "STORMINESS" FACTOR WHICH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE LAKES THERMAL STRUCTURE OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. FREEZING DEGREE DAY TOTALS AS OF NOVEMBER 28TH IN THE LAST 5 YEARS: 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 DULUTH 159 52 4 123 27 MARQUETTE 109 41 0 150 23 SAULT STE MARIE 65 23 0 74 9 ESCANABA 70 13 0 65 10 GREEN BAY 65 9 0 47 10 MILWAUKEE 21 0 0 23 1 CHICAGO 9 0 0 15 5 MUSKEGON 15 0 0 21 0 ALPENA 55 19 0 58 8 DETROIT 16 2 0 30 0 TOLEDO 32 5 0 25 0 CLEVELAND 19 0 0 22 0 HARBOR WATER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS FOR NOVEMBER 28TH: 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 NORM DULUTH 34 41 44 50 45 46 41 42 47 42 44 SAULT STE MARIE 35 46 45 50 50 47 46 48 52 50 47 CHICAGO 40 44 49 48 57 55 51 50 58 54 53 ALPENA 42 45 47 43 51 46 42 46 53 48 48 DETROIT 39 43 45 47 56 52 48 49 56 50 52 CLEVELAND 41 46 51 53 58 54 49 53 58 56 56 BUFFALO 40 45 46 50 56 52 50 52 58 54 54 WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS: 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 LAKE SUPERIOR WEST 41 41 44 43 45 42 39 41 MM 43 MM CENTRAL 41 40 45 43 45 43 42 43 MM MM MM EAST 40 42 45 42 44 42 MM 43 43 43 MM LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH 44 47 42 MM 53 50 MM 48 MM MM MM SOUTH 46 46 46 45 54 46 48 50 47 51 48 LAKE HURON NORTH 43 45 45 44 49 MM 47 48 MM 46 MM SOUTH 46 47 46 50 54 48 47 48 47 MM 47 LAKE ERIE WEST 38 MM 46 49 56 48 46 48 46 48 48 CENTRAL 47 MM 50 52 57 50 48 52 49 50 53 EAST 49 MM 47 50 56 49 47 50 MM 51 50 SOME PRELIMINARY DATES FOR FREEZE-UP FOR SELECTED WATERWAYS: WATERWAY FREEZE-UP FOR 2008 EARLIEST LATEST DULUTH AROUND DECEMBER 7TH 11/26/96 12/20/74 LITTLE BAY DE NOC AROUND DECEMBER 24TH 12/11/72 1/10/92 SAGINAW BAY AROUND DECEMBER 18TH 12/03/76 1/10/75 LAKE ST. CLAIR AROUND DECEMBER 29TH 12/17/68 1/18/92 ST. MARY'S RIVER SAULT STE MARIE AROUND JANUARY 2ND 12/06/76 1/20/75 IZAAK WALTON BAY AROUND JANUARY 4TH 12/11/76 1/15/71 LAKE MUNUSCONG AROUND DECEMBER 22ND 11/19/67 1/13/75 RABER BAY AROUND DECEMBER 19TH 11/26/76 1/14/75 FRENCHETTE POINT AROUND JANUARY 15TH 12/13/76 1/25/80 THE FORECAST DATES FOR FREEZE-UP ARE ABOUT AVERAGE FOR PROJECTIONS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. $$ LOMBARDY