FZHW50 PHFO 201352 AAA SRFHFO SURF ZONE FORECAST...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST TUE JAN 20 2009 HIZ005>011-201900- OAHU- 400 AM HST TUE JAN 20 2009 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR RISING SURF TONIGHT ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES... SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 8 TO 10 FEET THIS MORNING... THEN WILL INCREASE TO HEIGHTS OF 18 TO 24 FEET TONIGHT. SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING... RISING TO HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 18 FEET TONIGHT. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET TODAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY. OUTLOOK THROUGH SUNDAY JAN 25: EXPECT FORERUNNERS FROM A NEW LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TO ARRIVE BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE STORMY OCEAN CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLDS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY MAY BOOST SURF HEIGHTS NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND. SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR ANY SURF ZONE. && COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI 300 PM HST FRI JAN 16 2009 THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT 300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 4 DAYS. FORECAST SWL DMNT DMNT H H HGT WIND WIND SPD DATE HGT DIR PD 1/3 1/10 TEND PROB SPD DIR TEND 1 PM 5 WNW 16 8 12 UP 22-27 SW SAME 01/16 10 NW 13 18 22 SAME 8 SW 8 4 6 SAME SAT 4 NW 14 6 8 DOWN MED 17-21 N DOWN 01/17 11 NW 13 20 26 SAME MED 4 SW 8 2 4 DOWN LOW SUN 10 NNW 13 18 22 DOWN MED 11-16 ENE DOWN 01/18 5 NNE 7 2 4 DOWN LOW MON 8 NNW 12 12 16 DOWN MED 7-10 SE SAME 01/19 TUE 5 NNW 11 6 10 DOWN LOW 11-16 VRB SAME 01/20 6 WNW 18 12 14 UP LOW WED 10 NW 15 20 26 UP LOW 17-21 NE UP 01/21 7 NE 7 2 4 UP LOW LEGEND: SWL HGT OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE DMNT DIR DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS DMNT PD DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS H1/3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE H1/10 AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE HGT TEND HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) PROB PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) WIND SPD OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WIND DIR WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS SPD TEND WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS. DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... ACTIVE WINTER SURF INTO NEXT WEEK. DETAILED... MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS VICTORY AT SEA CONDITIONS FROM A MIX OF SOURCES...CREATING HIGH TO MARGINAL WARNING LEVEL HEIGHTS. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED INTO MID SUNDAY. A HUGE CYCLONIC...OR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE GYRE FROM NEAR HAWAII TO THE ALEUTIANS HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY. THE GENERAL TERM FOR THIS PATTERN IS CALLED THE ALEUTIAN LOW...SINCE THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE COMMONLY OCCURS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FROM ROUGHLY THE LONGITUDES OF THE DATELINE TO HAWAII IN WINTER. THIS SCENARIO IS LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF...MEANING SIGNIFICANT BREAKERS ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS IN THE TABLE ABOVE REFER TO PEAK FACE IN ZONES OF HIGH REFRACTION ON OUTER REEFS. HEIGHTS NEAR SHORE ARE ABOUT 25 TO 50 PER CENT LESS. A NARROW FETCH OF SEVERE GALES IN THE 300-315 DEGREE BAND TRACKED EASTWARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM 300-315 DEGREES HAVE BEEN REGISTERED THIS MORNING AT BUOY 51001. SURF FROM THIS SOURCE IS BUILDING TODAY AND SHOULD DROP TOMORROW. A CLOSER SOURCE IS MAKING FOR HIGHER SURF. QUIKSCAT SATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOW THE MASSIVE GYRE NORTH OF HAWAII...WITH MOSTLY NEAR GALE WINDS STRETCHING FROM HAWAII TO THE ALEUTIANS IN A BROAD DIRECTIONAL RANGE OF 280-345 DEGREES. THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A POCKET OF GALES WITHIN 800 NM OF HAWAII...WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGH TO EXTRA-LARGE CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. SURF SHOULD REMAIN CONFUSED WITH A WIDE DIRECTIONAL AND WAVE PERIOD SPREAD. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE HIGH SURF MARK MID MONDAY...DOWN TO SMALL LEVELS FROM THE ALEUTIAN SOURCE BY MID TUESDAY...AS A NEW LONG-PERIOD EPISODE FILLS IN. QUIKSCAT SHOWS THE NEXT FETCH IN THE 300-310 DEGREE BAND OF SEVERE GALES OVER A NARROW AREA EAST OF JAPAN ON FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THE FETCH WIDTH EXPANDING AND THE ASSOCIATED CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE DATELINE ON SATURDAY...MAINTAINING GALES TO SMALL AREAS OF STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. MODELS SUGGEST THE FETCH TO EXPAND INTO THE 310-330 DEGREE BAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH A FETCH OF NEAR GALES MOVING TOWARDS HAWAII AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN BEHIND A FRONT ON MONDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD MID TUESDAY...APPROACHING HIGH SURF LEVELS BEFORE SUNDOWN FROM 300-310 DEGREES. THE EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT LOW-END EXTRA-LARGE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY CENTERED ON 320 DEGREES. MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS ROUGH BREAKERS FROM THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OUT OF 210-240 DEGREES. SEE THE LATEST NWS STATE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS OF WIND CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESENT WINDSWELL CENTERED ON ABOUT 220 DEGREES SHOULD DROP ON SATURDAY. A SMALL WINDSWELL FROM 350-020 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE MID SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ON WEDNESDAY WITH GROWING WINDSWELL FROM 30-70 DEGREES. INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE LAST IN THIS FAMILY OF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE MONDAY OFF JAPAN...AND DELIVER A MODERATE TO NEAR HIGH EPISODE LOCALLY STARTING ROUGHLY NEXT SATURDAY FROM 310-320 DEGREES. HINTS OF A REGIME CHANGE TO THE JET STREAM PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A SLOWER PACE OF ARRIVAL OF NEW EPISODES...WHICH SHOULD PEAK MOSTLY IN THE MODERATE TO LOW-END HIGH RANGE FOR THE TAIL END OF JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE DUBIOUS. THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY...JANUARY 20. THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275. ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: SEE /IN LOWERCASE/ HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP $$ NWS FORECASTER HOUSTON AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL