FXUS64 KMOB 201024 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 424 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009 .SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND A DEEP DOME OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH AN OPEN RADIATIVE CHANNEL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR A QUARTER INCH...AND SURFACE WINDS BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME FOR A COLD NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...THE LOCAL HARD FREEZE CRITERIA OF LESS THAN 26F FOR 5 OR MORE HOURS WILL BE MET OVER MOST OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA BUT WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE HARD FREEZE WARNING. THE DURATION WILL NOT BE MET FOR PERRY...STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES BUT WILL NEED TO ADD COASTAL SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES AS CRITERIA WILL BE MET IN THESE TWO. /29 .LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...HIGH LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND SETS UP ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS LESS THAN A HALF INCH...RAINFALL NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPSTREAM...GULF MOISTURE MODIFIES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION ON FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD SEE BETTER GRADIENT OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT... A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST. BROAD UPPER TROF INTOALLOWS FRONTAL ZONE TO SINK SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUATION OF A SOUTHWARD MOTION INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE DAY. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND SIMILAR CHANCES...BUT FOR RAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS QUICKLY...ALLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY. WILL BE GETTING BACK INTO A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW (SURFACE AND ALOFT) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW DEGREE OF INSTABILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING THUNDER...CALLING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...NEXT COOLING TREND WILL BE WITH THE WEEKEND FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MOS. /10 && .AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. /29 && .MARINE...THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY SUBSIDING SINCE 3Z AND THIS TREND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY NOON THEN WELL OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20+ KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY THEN VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE MARINE AREA. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TRAILING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29 && .FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS (UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S) INTO THE REGION TODAY...DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S MITIGATE VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. WE ARE WITHIN CRITICAL LEVELS THOUGH (<35 %) OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING THERE THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOWEST HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM 27 TO 32% ALONG WITH HIGH DISPERSION. LATEST GRIDDED HUMIDITY FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MEETING CRITERIA FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE ZONES. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 47 24 51 31 / 00 00 00 00 PENSACOLA 49 26 49 33 / 00 00 00 00 DESTIN 49 30 48 34 / 00 00 00 00 EVERGREEN 44 19 50 23 / 00 00 00 00 WAYNESBORO 45 21 50 26 / 00 00 00 00 CAMDEN 43 20 50 26 / 00 00 00 00 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH... COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN... UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX. FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA... AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA... INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA... COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA... AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. MS...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GREENE...AND WAYNE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$