FXUS64 KLCH 201736
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1136 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VRF TO PREVAIL. SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS AN ESTABLISHED COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES. WIND SPEEDS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING LATE.
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/ 
DISCUSSION...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW THE
PREDICTED TIDES FOR TODAY...DUE TO THE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS. 
ALSO...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WILL RETAIN THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE ZONE PACKAGE
IS ON TARGET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/ 
DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/ 
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. AREAWIDE WINDS HAVE CALMED
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES TO THE MID TO LOWER 30S IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE DAY WILL BE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR YESTERDAY UNDER-DID THE WINDS AREAWIDE AND BELIEVE THIS IS THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. WITH WINDS AT 850 MB UP TO 40 KNOTS AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA
TODAY. AS WINDS CALM TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EXPECT
MOST OF THE AREA TO GET AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHERLY PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PREFRONTAL SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY
KICKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
HANG UP IN THE COASTAL WATERS CREATING LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING A STRONG COLD FRONT. AM NOT WILLING TO JUMP ON THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD.
MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT HAVE
DIMINISHED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THESE WINDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  31  60  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
KBPT  62  30  61  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0 
KAEX  54  27  57  37  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
KLFT  57  30  56  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON 
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. 
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
     ORANGE...TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX 
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL 
     CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, 
     LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$