FXUS64 KCRP 201717
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1117 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RELAXING THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE THROUGH WED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/ 
DISCUSSION...ONGOING FCST LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS
S TX...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MOD OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL CONT WITH THE
RED FLAG WARNING AS AM STILL EXPECTING GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND WILL
CONT WITH THE SCEC FOR THE MARINE ZONES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/ 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. REINFORCING SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. AS A RESULT...LGT
WNDS WILL INCREASE FM THE N AND BE GUSTY 16Z-23Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/ 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA WHERE WINDS
WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY AND TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY (BOTH NAM12 AND GFS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
IN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES)
TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SITS RIGHT ON TOP OF SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH A VERY WEAK DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS.
WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER RAPID
WARM UP. COULD BE A VERY WEAK SEA-BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
WEAKEST.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SCEC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXTREMELY LOW
AGAIN...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. MODELS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
BUT DO EXPECT WINDS GUSTING FROM THE NORTH NEAR 25 MPH COASTAL
BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY AND 20-25 MPH RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE A RED FLAG
EVENT WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE 
TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVR THE CONUS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BY 
LATE THU. THIS WL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT 
LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AFTN/FRI OVR THE COASTAL WATERS. 
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA AND 
CONTRIUBUTE TO FROPA BY SAT OVR THE CWFA WITH SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN
OVR THE COASTAL WATERS. DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALG THE FRONT OWING TO 
LIMITED MSTR. NEVERTHELESS...ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED DRG MUCH OF 
THE PERIOD...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR MOVG OVR SHALLOW 
FRONTS TDA AND SAT. THUS...EXPECT PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY 
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER 
EXTENT THE GFS...THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE 
REGION MONDAY. YET...WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN OWING TO EXPECTATION OF 
LIMITED MSTR. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  38  76  50  75  /   0   0   0   0   0 
VICTORIA          69  33  74  43  75  /   0   0   0   0   0 
LAREDO            76  45  80  49  82  /   0   0   0   0   0 
ALICE             74  37  79  46  80  /   0   0   0   0   0 
ROCKPORT          72  41  74  53  69  /   0   0   0   0   0 
COTULLA           74  33  78  41  80  /   0   0   0   0   0 
KINGSVILLE        73  35  77  48  79  /   0   0   0   0   0 
NAVY CORPUS       72  44  74  54  69  /   0   0   0   0   0 
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM 
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AT/15...LONG TERM