FXUS63 KMKX 200958
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
358 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TRENDS OF LAKE EFFECT BAND THIS 
MORNING THEN MILDER UNTIL FRIDAY COLD FROPA.  
TODAY-
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VORTICITY LOBE AND SEMI-FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY IN 
PLAY EARLY THIS MORNING. LAKE BAND BEHAVING ITSELF BUT STILL MAY 
GRAZE MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH TO THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION
OF SOME FLURRIES LAKESIDE. TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AND INFLUENCE OF LOBE SHIFTS AWAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...ALBEIT WEAK WITHIN THE STRONGLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER
FLOW...TAKES HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. 850 MILLIBAR WINDS TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN A DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
AFTER 18Z.
TONIGHT-
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG. NOT MUCH OF A 
WAVE NOTED AT 500 MILLIBARS BUT TOWARDS 700 AND MORE SO AT 850 
MILLIBARS A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CWA BY 
12Z WEDNESDAY. COLUMN OVERALL QUITE DRY.
WEDNESDAY-
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN WARMER 
850 TEMPERATURES NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. IN FACT EVEN 
SEEING SOME ABOVE 0C TEMPS WORKING IN.
THURSDAY-
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. WEAK LOW MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE 
AREA...MAINLY THE UP INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. PRECIP AND MOSITURE TIED TO 
THE LOW AND PROXIMITY OF 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE.
FRIDAY-
FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD WITH 850 TEMPS 
PLUMMETING INTO THE MINUS TEENS BY DAYS END...SO THE MILDER STRETCH 
WILL COME TO A HALT. GFS SHOWING A SMIDGE OF QPF WITH THIS. MEX MOS 
POPS PRETTY MEAGHER. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH THE GOING FLURRY IDEA.
SATURDAY-
THE CHILL WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WINDS WILL HAVE SLACKENED OFF FROM 
FRIDAY AND THE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COLUMN LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE SLIDING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM IOWA AND MINNESOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...LAKE SNOW BAND HAS THUS FAR STAYED OFF SHORE. THERE IS 
STILL SOME DRIFT TO THE WEST THAT COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR CIGS AND
LIGHT SNOW TO CLIP KMKE AND KENW THROUGH MID MORNING. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY KICK IN AND BLOW THE BAND BACK OUT OVER THE
WATER AND EAST TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHER PROBLEM
CLOUDS...AROUND THE UPPER LIMIT OF MVFR...EXIST ACROSS WRN
WISCONSIN...STREAMING SOUTH FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE FLOW
SHIFTS TO WRLY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THESE
CLOUDS MAY TRACK INTO THE TAFS SITES BEFORE CLEARING OUT A FEW
HOURS AFTER THEY ARRIVE. EXPECT ALL THE CLOUDS TO SCOUR BY 21-23Z.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR
AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS