FXUS63 KDTX 202110 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 410 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATO-CU OVER LAKE HURON ALREADY LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE WHILE THE PRIMARY BAND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE PATCHY AT BEST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. LOWS SHOULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THE METRO AREA BEFORE CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE LATE. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK AS MILDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY AFTER QUITE A STRETCH OF DAYS WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS THIS AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS/FLURRIES WILL FUNNEL OVER THE AREA...MAINLY FROM M 59/I 69 NORTH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY MINIMAL. MEANWHILE...THOSE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MEAN HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS ABOVE FREEZING FROM DETROIT SOUTH BY THURSDAY WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SKIES REMAIN PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT PORTION OF THE PACKAGE...UNFORTUNATELY...NEEDS SOME EXTRA ATTENTION AS MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR...WHICH IS DUE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN PROMISES TO HANG AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS AIR IS NOT QUITE AS BRUTAL AS THIS PAST OUTBREAK. IN THE END THOUGH...THIS IS JUST SPLITTING HAIRS AS LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WILL BE COMMON AND HIGHS WILL GET STUCK IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WILL ADJUST THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DOWNWARD A FAIR AMOUNT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS WELL...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE W/ THE THUMB SETTING UP FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PREFERRED LAKE EFFECT REGIME. WITH THE SHIFT TO MORE ARCTIC AIR WITH THIS NEXT OUTBREAK...THE STORM TRACK IS ALSO PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO ANY STORMS THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY LOOK TO BE STRUNG OUT AS THEY SHEAR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...KEEPING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BY THIS TIME IS BECOMING RATHER ACTIVE AGAIN IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ROLLING IN OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ANY SHIFT BACK NORTH IN THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .MARINE... A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 20 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...WOULD EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT/BRISK WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 101 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 AVIATION... GOOD AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-10 KNOTS WILL DROP OFF TO NEARLY CALM TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LOWERING DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT SOME STRATUS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW IN THIS OCCURRING GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM....DG MARINE.......KEC AVIATION.....KEC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).