FXUS62 KTBW 201808 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 108 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 ...HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... ...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...WELL ADVERTISED COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK UNDERWAY. UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENING AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF INTO THE AREA WED THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER THE REGION CONTINUING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THRU THU. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MISS RV VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WED AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA THU. TONIGHT...TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH AND W ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM TO KEEP BREEZY WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING SLIGHTLY WEAKENING OVER NIGHT BUT ENOUGH TO ADVECT COLD AIR DOWN THE FL PENINSULA AND CREATE VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OVERNIGHT...SO WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS DRAINING OVER THE NATURE COAST AND WEST CENTRAL FL TO DROP TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR 3+ HOURS OVERNIGHT FOR HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS SWARD INTO PASCO COUNTY WITH FREEZING TEMPS FOR 3+ FROM HILLSBOROUGH/POLK COUNTY SWARD INTO ALL INTERIOR ZONES AS WELL AS INTERIOR MANATEE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES. SW FL TEMPS COLD BUT AT FREEZING FOR VERY SHORT DURATIONS MAINLY ONLY IN EXTREME NE CHARLOTTE. NW LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE E GULF TO PRODUCE STRATO CU DECK WITH A FEW COLD SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BUT THATS ABOUT IT. AS FLOW VEERS OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES DOWN TO NEAR NOTHING BY SUNRISE WITH COLDEST TEMPS. ALONG AREA BEACHES LARGE BREAKING WAVES TO CREATE HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT INTO WED. WED...CLEAR SKIES AND WELL BELOW TEMPS AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. WED NT...AGAIN ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER SUNSET FOR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO LONG DURATIONS OF HARD FREEZING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO INTERIOR HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND FREEZING DURATIONS PORTIONS OF THE REST OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN PINELLAS...COASTAL AREAS AND WESTERN LEE SHOULD BE ONLY AREAS NOT IN FREEZE WATCH AREA. HAVE EXPANDED WATCH TO SHOW THIS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON WARNINGS ATTM. THU...SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MODERATING TREND BEGINNING. .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TUESDAY. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THEN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. SCT-BKN STRATO CU GENERALLY ABOVE 3000FT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. && .MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT TO KEEP ELEVATED NW WINDS AND SEAS WITH SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 4 AM. WINDS AND SEAS TO BEGIN TO VEER AND SUBSIDE WED AS HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH WEAKENS AND REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THRU THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIRMASS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH DRY DEWPOINTS FOR LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RHS WED AND THU. HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES WED AND KEPT WATCH THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 32 52 32 61 / 10 0 0 5 FMY 36 58 32 65 / 10 0 0 5 GIF 29 53 30 63 / 5 0 0 5 SRQ 38 54 33 61 / 10 0 0 5 BKV 23 51 18 61 / 5 0 0 5 SPG 40 53 39 60 / 10 0 0 5 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CITRUS- HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEVY-SUMTER. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE- CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE- LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER. HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO- HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK- SARASOTA-SUMTER. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO- HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK- SARASOTA-SUMTER. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DE SOTO- HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-POLK-SARASOTA. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS- POLK-SARASOTA. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON