FXUS62 KMHX 201636 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1136 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SNOW NOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE ONLY AREA STILL SEEING LIGHT RAIN IS THE OUTER BANKS. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA BY 18Z. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A MDT SNOW BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS MAINLAND HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BAND OF MDT SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL TRANSLATE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECTING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 6 INCHES. LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS (2 TO 4 INCHES) EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM WARNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT CARTERET COUNTY AND OBX HYDE WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 INLAND AND SLOWLY FALL TO NEAR 30 ACROSS NE SECTIONS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BANDS OF SNOW LINGER ALONG OBX THIS EVENING BEFORE MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING WORKS TO COAST BY MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL LGT ACCUM OVER OBX BUT SNOW SHUD BE ABRUPTLY ENDING OVR CSTL PLAIN BY ARND SUNSET. CLEAR/COLD/BRISK CONDS SET IN TNGT WITH SNOW COVER HELPING TEMPERATURE DROP MAINLY INTO THE 20-25 DEG RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW TEENS LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. DEEP DRY NW FLOW AND SNOW COVER WILL RETARD TEMPERATURE RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING M30S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS WED NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN 20-25F AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURE MODERATION BEGINS IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY WITH A DEEP WSW FLOW DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE U40S TO L50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DRY WITH CONTD WARMING TREND FRI AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TO THE S. HIGHS SHLD REACH AROUND 60 INLAND FRI. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUN THAT THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE MON. SOME PRECIP POSS WITH FRONT CROSSING SAT BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEAR TO BE WEAK SO KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR NOW. AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MON RETURN FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME SHRA BUT AGAIN WILL LIMIT TO SLIGHT CHC. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF NC PULLING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO BANDING...BUT COULD SEE LONG SPELLS OF VSBYS AOB 1NM...WITH PREDOMINANT 2-3NM. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD KEEP BLOWING SNOW AROUND DESPITE THE END OF PRECIP. THE TERMINALS COULD SEE A SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE EVENT CONCLUDES (REF WSWMHX). THE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE FCST INTO THE WEEKEND LOOK FOR PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. VFR EXPECTED WED THROUGH FRI. && .MARINE... WILL START GALES FOR ALL WATERS ON THIS UPDATE. ALLIGATOR RIVER GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AT WELL AS DUCK AT 10 AM. 00Z GFS IS THE FAVORED MODEL AND IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. DUE TO THE LOW MOVING AWAY SO QUICKLY TONIGHT I TRIMMED BACK ENDING TIME FOR GALES TO 00Z FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE...AND TO 06Z FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BEGINNING TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF STATES. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND OFF THE SOUTH COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029- 044>046-079-080-090>093. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ047-081- 094-098-103. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ095- 104. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103-104. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-135-156- 158. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...BTC AVIATION...JAC MARINE...JAC