FXUS62 KMFL 201653 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1153 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT NAPLES WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCT STRATO CU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO THE N AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /STRASSBERG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009/ UPDATE... ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO THE CURRENT FIRST PERIOD FORECAST THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS...AND WILL MENTION SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS REGION ONLY. LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA... WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AS MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. REGARDING MARINE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT WESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ARE FINALLY DIMINISHING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...AND WILL ALLOW GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO WIND/WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS THIS MORNING...WITH SCA CONTINUING FOR ALL WATERS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009/ AVIATION...LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS/WIND GUSTS LOCATED ACROSS MIAMI-DADE SOUTH OF KMIA AND KTMB BY 11Z. LOW CLOUD DECK BEHIND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS RANGING MAINLY FROM 4 TO 6 KFT THROUGH MID MORNING. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NW LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FNTL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009/ DISCUSSION...CLD FNT CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH S FL THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS AND HEADS NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING WITH A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. HIGH TEMPS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH IN A FEW HRS OF SUNRISE THEN FALLING OR HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS IN. BHND THE FNT... MOST OF THE CWA WILL CLEAR OUT, HOWEVER WITH THE COLD AIR PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS ALTOCU AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST. ALSO, THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ALSO KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA TODAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ABOVE CALM FOR MOST OF TONIGHT/WED MORN...HENCE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. TEMPS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI- DADE COUNTIES AND ALSO MOST OF THE METRO SECTIONS OF THESE TWO COUNTIES WILL LIKELY STAY WARM ENOUGH TO NOT MAKE THE 3 HR DURATION OF SUB 35 TEMPS NEEDED FOR THE ADVISORY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE NONE THE LESS. AS FOR AS THE FREEZE TONIGHT... A FEW ISOLD AREAS WILL BE RIGHT AT 32 OR POSSIBLY 31 IN GLADES, HENDRY, AND INLAND PALM BEACH. NO FROST IS EXPECTED DUE TO WIND... BUT TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH DURING WED WITH EVEN A BIGGER FALL EXPECTED WED NIGHT/THURS MORN. FREEZING TEMPS WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH... LEFT MIAMI-DADE, MAINLAND MONROE, COASTAL AND METRO SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND COLLIER OUT OF WATCH FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT WITH THE EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND A FEW SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST. MARINE...A STRONG LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH FL. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY TROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY... HOWEVER THIS MORNING WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE 30 TO 40KTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF PALM BEACH WITH LESSER GUSTS FOUND ELSEWHERE. THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FOR THE LAKE, GULF, AND BAY TONIGHT, BUT AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF STEAM SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 6 FEET THROUGH THURS MORN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP ACROSS FL AND INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE WEAKENING WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS E THEN SE WHILE DECREASING INTO FRI AND THE WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN FOUR CONSECUTIVE HOURS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... /RHG THE SAME DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS S FL ON THURS AND INTO FRI. FIRE WX WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED THESE AFTERNOONS AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 35 58 36 65 / - 0 0 0 FORT LAUDERDALE 40 60 41 67 / - 0 0 0 MIAMI 42 61 42 68 / - 0 0 0 NAPLES 43 58 35 65 / - 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067- FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075- FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070- FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651- AMZ670-AMZ671. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657- GMZ676. && $$ LONG TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS